Summary of the Auto Industry and Shared Mobility Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **North American Auto Industry** and **Shared Mobility** for the year 2026, highlighting a cautious outlook due to an anticipated 'EV Winter' expected to persist through 2026 [1][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Forecasts**: - The 2026 US Auto sales forecast is set at **15.9 million** units, reflecting a **1.0% year-over-year decline**. This includes **14.9 million** Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles (+1.0% y/y) and **1.0 million** Electric Vehicles (EVs) (-20% y/y) [5][11][25]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The **2025 US Auto sales** showed unexpected resilience, driven by pre-buying before tariff implementations and the expiration of consumer tax credits for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) [4][10]. - Factors contributing to the cautious outlook include: - Continued lack of affordability due to the expiration of EV tax credits and rising average transaction prices (ATPs) [5][10]. - Tightened credit standards, particularly affecting subprime borrowers, although some modest loosening has been noted recently [5][10]. - Inflationary pressures from tariffs expected to impact consumer prices through the first quarter of 2026 [5][10]. 3. **Consumer Behavior**: - There is pent-up demand in the market, with US Auto SAAR still below pre-COVID levels and an aging car parc averaging nearly **13 years** [5][10]. - Rate cuts may marginally improve affordability for consumers [5][10]. 4. **Scenario Analysis**: - **Bull Case**: Forecasts a SAAR of **17.5 million** (+8.7% y/y) if consumer confidence improves and OEMs focus on core ICE/hybrid offerings [12][25]. - **Bear Case**: Projects a SAAR of **14.5 million** (-9.9% y/y) if credit availability tightens further and consumer affordability worsens [12][25]. 5. **Stock Ratings Changes**: - **General Motors (GM)** upgraded to **Overweight** with a target price of **$90**, citing strong execution and capital allocation strategies [8][48]. - **Tesla (TSLA)** downgraded to **Equal-weight** with a target price of **$425**, reflecting high expectations and near-term headwinds [8][51]. - **Rivian (RIVN)** and **Lucid (LCID)** downgraded to **Underweight** due to negative EV outlooks [8][54]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy updates regarding tariffs and consumer health indicators such as unemployment and inflation [12][13]. - The **EV market** is expected to face significant headwinds, with a projected **20% decline in volume** and a penetration rate of **6.5%** for BEVs in 2026 [10][31]. - Companies with diversified sourcing and regional manufacturing strategies are seen as better positioned amid geopolitical tensions and market shifts [47]. Conclusion - The North American auto industry is navigating a complex landscape with mixed signals for 2026. While there are opportunities for companies with strong execution and adaptability, significant challenges remain, particularly in the EV segment. Investors are advised to remain selective and focus on companies that can effectively manage costs and capitalize on market dynamics.

Core Insights - Uber Technologies Inc. is currently viewed as one of the most profitable large-cap stocks, with RBC Capital raising its price target to $110 from $100 while maintaining an Outperform rating [1] - The company's Q3 2025 earnings report showed strong performance, particularly in light of high expectations, with consistent core fundamentals and positive investor sentiment driven by advancements in Autonomous Vehicle technology [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q3, Uber reported a 22% increase in Total Trips, marking the fastest growth rate since 2023, supported by a 21% surge in Mobility Trips [2] - Overall Gross Bookings grew by 21%, leading to $13.47 billion in revenue, which represents a year-over-year increase of 20.37% [2] - The company earned $3.11 per share, exceeding Wall Street estimates by $2.42 [2] Business Expansion - Beyond ride-sharing, Uber is expanding into new verticals, with the Grocery Retail segment achieving a Gross Bookings Run Rate of approximately $12 billion, growing faster than traditional restaurant delivery [3] - Future growth investments include Autonomous Vehicles, local commerce, and Generative AI solutions, highlighted by a partnership with NVIDIA to develop a reference architecture for AVs [3] Company Structure - Uber operates through three main segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight, utilizing proprietary technology applications on a global scale [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 2025 was a record quarter for the company, with adjusted EBITDA growing 29% year over year and free cash flow generation exceeding $1 billion for the first time in Lyft's history [3][11][12] - Active riders increased by 18% year over year, and gross bookings rose by 16% year over year, both reaching all-time highs [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record levels of active riders and driver hours, contributing to overall growth [12][13] - The partnership with United Airlines is expected to enhance customer value and drive additional growth [3][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 70% of rides growth in Q3 came from underpenetrated markets in North America, which represent a significant opportunity for future growth [13][42] - The company anticipates mid to high teens growth in rides and 17-20% growth in gross bookings for Q4 2025 [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Lyft is focusing on expanding its autonomous vehicle (AV) partnerships and enhancing its position across the AV value chain [4][12] - The company aims to leverage its recent acquisitions, including FreeNow and TBR, to enhance its global presence and service offerings [46][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about multiple growth catalysts converging in 2026, including the impact of the United partnership and ongoing improvements in operational efficiency [9][12] - The California insurance reform (SB371) is expected to reduce costs for riders and stimulate demand, benefiting both drivers and the company [15][16] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on enhancing its business-to-business opportunities, including partnerships with universities and healthcare providers [90] - Lyft's high-value modes grew by 50% year over year in Q3, indicating strong demand for premium services [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the multiple converging catalysts in 2026? - Management highlighted that the marketplace is stronger than ever, with record active riders and driver hours, and emphasized the importance of the United partnership and underpenetrated markets [9][12] Question: How does Lyft plan to balance growth and margin trajectory? - Management stated that customer obsession drives profitable growth and that innovation is key to scaling the business without sacrificing margins [21][25] Question: What is the opportunity in low scale markets? - Management noted that about two-thirds of the $161 billion personal vehicle trips market in North America is in underpenetrated markets, which are expected to drive significant growth [42][43] Question: How does the Waymo partnership impact AV economics? - Management explained that the partnership is designed to maximize vehicle availability and utilization, which should improve unit economics over time [31][32][80] Question: What is the expected impact of insurance renewals? - Management indicated a mid-single-digit increase in insurance costs per ride but emphasized ongoing efforts to bend the insurance cost curve [40][41] Question: How will Lyft leverage its acquisitions for global expansion? - Management discussed the potential to enhance service quality and expand market reach through the integration of FreeNow and TBR's capabilities [46][50]

Core Insights - Uber Technologies reported third-quarter earnings of $3.11 per share, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of 69 cents, with revenue reaching $13.5 billion, a 19% increase on a constant currency basis compared to the previous year, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $13.3 billion [3][6] - Despite the strong earnings report, Uber's stock fell 6.4% due to investor disappointment when excluding one-time tax and investment benefits, which included a $4.9 billion tax valuation release and a $1.5 billion pretax benefit from equity investment revaluations [4][5] - The company reported operational income of $1.1 billion, which fell short of the $1.6 billion expected by analysts, attributed to rising general and administrative expenses [5] Financial Performance - Gross bookings for the quarter were $49.7 billion, exceeding forecasts of $49 billion, with positive results from both ride-hailing and Uber Eats [3] - For the fourth quarter, Uber guided gross bookings between $52.25 billion and $53.75 billion, slightly above Wall Street's forecast, and expects adjusted EBITDA of $2.41 billion to $2.51 billion, aligning with estimates [7] Strategic Developments - Uber is focusing on the deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs), planning to launch AVs in at least 10 cities by the end of 2026, amid increasing competition from Tesla [8] - A partnership with Nvidia was announced to develop a fleet of 100,000 autonomous robo-taxis, highlighting the importance of AI and autonomous technology in Uber's future strategy [9]

Core Insights - The development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is accelerating, with significant investments from automakers and tech companies [1] - Nissan is launching its next-generation ProPILOT technology in Japan, aiming to address the declining driver population and plans to introduce an autonomous ride-share service by 2027 [1][9] Nissan's Initiatives - Nissan's upcoming ProPILOT system combines its "Ground Truth Perception" with Wayve's AI Driver software, designed for urban environments rather than just highways [2] - The demo fleet utilizes the Ariya electric SUV, equipped with advanced sensors for improved decision-making and navigation in complex scenarios [3] - Nissan aims to position its technology competitively against Tesla's Full Self-Driving system, although ProPILOT will remain at Level 2 autonomy requiring driver supervision [4][5] Competitive Landscape - In the U.S., Waymo leads in robotaxi services, operating fully driverless Level 4 services in multiple cities and providing around 250,000 paid rides weekly [6][7] - Amazon's Zoox is developing a purpose-built robotaxi, with limited testing already underway in Las Vegas and plans for expansion [8][10] - Tesla's Full Self-Driving package is in beta, requiring human oversight but benefiting from extensive real-world data collection due to its large fleet [11][12] Global Developments - China is advancing rapidly in AV deployment, with companies like Baidu and Pony.ai operating commercial driverless services, supported by government initiatives [13] - The competition in the AV space is intensifying, with various companies pursuing their unique paths while pushing the boundaries of technology [14]

Core Viewpoint - Lyft's partnership with Whimo aims to introduce fully autonomous rides in Nashville, leading to a significant increase in Lyft's stock price by almost 15% following the announcement [1]. Group 1: Partnership Details - The partnership is designed to generate demand and manage the fleet effectively, leveraging Lyft's existing ride volume of 2 million rides per day across North America, particularly in Nashville [2][3][4]. - Lyft's fleet management service, Flex Drive, has been operational for over a decade and manages around 15,000 cars, ensuring high availability and maintenance standards [5][7][8]. - The collaboration is expected to differentiate Lyft from competitors like Uber, particularly through its unique fleet management capabilities [6][10]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The partnership is anticipated to enhance profitability and growth for Lyft, as self-driving cars are expected to reduce costs related to insurance and driver payments, while also increasing market growth [15][17]. - Lyft emphasizes a customer-centric approach, which has been pivotal in driving profitable growth over the past two and a half years [16]. - The introduction of autonomous vehicles is projected to lead to a positive growth trajectory in markets where they are deployed, contributing to overall industry growth [17][18].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 2025 was a record-breaking quarter for Lyft, achieving all-time highs in gross bookings, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flows for the first time in company history [6][8] - The company repurchased $200 million worth of stock, marking the first reduction in share count in its history [6] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 26% year-over-year [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rides reached an all-time high of almost $235 million, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth [8] - Active riders increased by 10%, and ride frequency grew in the mid-single digits [23] - The driver cancellation rate improved significantly from about 15% to approximately 4.7% [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lyft's marketplace is thriving, with over 1 million drivers spending a record amount of hours on the platform, averaging 40 more hours each compared to pre-COVID levels [7] - The company is expanding its total addressable market (TAM) and diversifying its offerings, including innovations like Lyft Silver for older Americans [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Lyft is focusing on operational excellence, innovation, and partnerships to drive growth and affordability [14][18] - The company is positioned to benefit from the addition of autonomous vehicles (AVs) to its platform across North America and Europe, which is expected to be transformational [8][48] - Lyft aims to maintain competitive pricing while enhancing value for customers through partnerships and innovative offerings [20][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued strong growth, with expectations for Q3 gross bookings to increase by 13% to 17% [27] - The company highlighted the importance of partnerships in driving growth and expanding its market presence [32][34] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by regulatory environments but emphasized strong relationships with regulators as a competitive advantage [60] Other Important Information - Lyft's partnership with Baidu for AV technology is expected to expand its market presence in Europe, with initial deployments planned [70][72] - The acquisition of FreeNow is anticipated to enhance Lyft's growth opportunities in the European market, leveraging existing customer bases and technology [78][80] Q&A Session Summary Question: Scaling affordability and rider growth - Management discussed the importance of operational excellence and innovation in driving rider growth and frequency, highlighting improvements in driver cancellation rates and the introduction of pricing strategies like Price Lock [14][20] Question: Contribution from FreeNow to Q3 guidance - Management clarified that Q3 guidance includes two months of FreeNow activity, noting that the taxi business typically experiences seasonal fluctuations [30] Question: Update on impactful partnership deals - Management provided insights into partnerships with United Airlines, Chase, and DoorDash, emphasizing their role in driving growth and enhancing customer value [34][38] Question: Building AV use case and regulatory processes - Management outlined the demand for AVs and the company's capabilities in fleet management and regulatory relationships, which are crucial for successful AV deployment [48][60] Question: Investment in Europe post-FreeNow acquisition - Management indicated that the FreeNow acquisition presents significant growth opportunities in Europe, with plans to leverage existing technology and partnerships [108][110] Question: Free cash flow breakdown - Management confirmed that the strong free cash flow number was not influenced by any unusual one-time items, attributing it to consistent business growth and effective cash management [88][89] Question: Differentiation in product development - Management reiterated the importance of continuous innovation and maintaining a competitive edge, noting that Lyft's market share is at its highest point in two and a half years [99][100]

Financial Performance - GM's Q2 2025 EBIT-adjusted was $30 billion[9, 47], with an EBIT-adjusted margin of 64%[47] - Adjusted automotive free cash flow was $28 billion[9, 47] - EPS-diluted-adjusted was $253[9, 47] - The company completed a $2 billion accelerated share repurchase program, retiring approximately 10 million shares during the quarter and approximately 43 million in total over the program[10] Sales and Market Share - GM's Q2 2025 U S market share increased by 07 percentage points year-over-year to 174%[9] - GM's overall sales were up 20% year-over-year in China, with NEV sales up 50%[10] - Q2 deliveries were 747k and H1 deliveries were 1440k[18] Electric Vehicles - GM maintained the 2 spot in EV sales in the U S with higher year-over-year sales and market share[9] - Chevrolet is now the 2 selling U S EV brand, and Cadillac is the 1 selling Luxury EV brand in the U S[9] - Q2 EV sales were up 111% year-over-year, representing 16% of the U S EV market[19] Investments and Capital Allocation - GM announced nearly $5 billion of investment in key U S manufacturing facilities[9] - The company is investing ~$900 million towards next-gen V8 engine production in Tonawanda, NY[24] - CY25 capital spend is projected to be $10–11 billion, including newly announced investments, with CY26-27 spend expected in the $10–12 billion range[9] Guidance and Tariffs - The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance for EBIT-adjusted of $100–125 billion, EPS-diluted-adjusted of $825–1000, and adjusted automotive free cash flow of $75–100 billion[33, 34, 35] - The calendar year 2025 gross tariff impact is unchanged at $4–5 billion, with the company aiming to mitigate at least 30% of this impact[42]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q1 2025 was Lyft's strongest Q1 ever, with records in gross bookings, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow [7][9] - Lyft achieved nearly $1 billion in cash generation over the last twelve months, indicating a strong growth with discipline [8] - The share repurchase program was increased to $750 million while still allowing for investments in growth initiatives [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lyft experienced year-on-year growth across regions, modes, and use cases, resulting in record active riders, rides, and driver hours [7] - The pricing environment showed average prices in Q1 were lower than in Q4 but up modestly year-over-year [14][15] - The introduction of the Price Lock membership has seen a 21% increase compared to Q4, with retention rates rising to about 75% [82] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lyft's Canadian market grew by 55% in Q1 2025, with plans to expand into Quebec [115] - Underpenetrated markets in the U.S. also showed strong growth, with cities like Indianapolis and Charlotte growing over 30% year-on-year in Q1 [116] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Lyft is focusing on expanding its demographic reach and international presence, particularly through the FreeNow acquisition [9][30] - The company is innovating in the autonomous vehicle (AV) space, partnering with May Mobility to launch AV services in Atlanta [34] - Lyft aims to enhance its marketplace by integrating AVs, which could broaden its service offerings and improve supply-demand dynamics [35][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in Lyft's positioning for 2025 and beyond, emphasizing a customer-obsessed strategy and operational excellence [9][10] - The management acknowledged the challenges in the pricing environment but maintained a focus on reliability and competitiveness [14][15] - Future growth is expected to be driven by innovations in pricing strategies and the introduction of new features like Price Lock [82] Other Important Information - The FreeNow acquisition is expected to double Lyft's addressable market and align with its strategic growth initiatives [74] - Lyft's media strategy is on track to reach a $100 million run rate by the end of the year, with strong performance metrics reported [103] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing environment and insurance updates - Management noted that average prices in Q1 were lower than in Q4 but showed modest year-over-year increases, with ongoing innovations in insurance programs [12][16] Question: Affordability initiatives and international expansion - Management discussed the importance of pricing strategies and highlighted the growth in Canada, indicating a focus on expanding into new markets [24][30] Question: AV partnerships and market dynamics - Management emphasized the potential of AVs to expand market opportunities and the importance of partnerships in monetizing AV assets [34][40] Question: FreeNow acquisition and taxi initiatives - Management explained that FreeNow is a taxi-first marketplace and discussed the potential for growth in the U.S. through taxi initiatives [67][74] Question: Consumer behavior and spending patterns - Management observed that as pricing increases subside, there may be changes in consumer behavior leading to increased spending on rideshare services [63][78] Question: Q2 guidance and growth drivers - Management provided insights into expected growth in rides and gross bookings, emphasizing the strength of the commute segment as a major driver [124][125]