North America Equity Research December 2025 US Internet 2026 Outlook Doug Anmuth AC (212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Dae Lee, CFA AC (415) 315-8500 dae.k.lee@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Bryan M. Smilek AC (212) 622-8886 bryan.smilek@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Neeraj Kookada, CFA (212) 622-0270 neeraj.s.kookada@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Margaret Hoffman (212) 622-1710 margaret.hoffman@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC See the e ...

Key Takeaways FCFS, LYFT, IBP, LUMN and AEIS are five mid-cap stocks highlighted after strong gains during 2025.LYFT is seeing strong rider and driver growth and is targeting the robotaxi market via partnerships.AEIS is benefiting from semiconductor and data center demand, with Data Center revenues expected to double.U.S. stock markets have been witnessing an astonishing bull run since the beginning of 2023 barring some minor fluctuations. The three major stock indexes — the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ...

Market Overview - The markets are experiencing a nervous sentiment as 2025 approaches its end, with the S&P 500 remaining close to all-time highs, raising concerns about potential weaknesses in the AI sector due to significant corporate spending [1] Analyst Background - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies on Wall Street and has worked in Silicon Valley, providing insights into current industry trends. He has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017 and has been featured in various web publications, with his articles also appearing on popular trading platforms like Robinhood [1]

Core Insights - The comparison between Lyft and Tencent highlights Tencent as the stronger investment option based on various financial metrics and analyst recommendations [1][9]. Profitability - Lyft has a net margin of 2.40%, return on equity of 18.29%, and return on assets of 2.38% - Tencent shows significantly higher profitability with a net margin of 29.87%, return on equity of 19.47%, and return on assets of 11.52% [2]. Institutional & Insider Ownership - 83.1% of Lyft shares are held by institutional investors, indicating strong confidence in its long-term performance - In contrast, Tencent has 0.0% institutional ownership, with 3.1% of Lyft shares held by insiders [3]. Earnings & Valuation - Lyft's gross revenue is $5.79 billion, with a price/sales ratio of 1.41, net income of $22.78 million, earnings per share of $0.38, and a price/earnings ratio of 53.61 - Tencent's gross revenue is significantly higher at $91.85 billion, with a price/sales ratio of 7.75, net income of $27.00 billion, earnings per share of $3.25, and a price/earnings ratio of 23.94 - Tencent is trading at a lower price-to-earnings ratio, suggesting it is more affordable compared to Lyft [4][5]. Risk & Volatility - Lyft has a beta of 1.99, indicating its stock price is 99% more volatile than the S&P 500 - Tencent has a beta of 0.21, meaning its stock price is 79% less volatile than the S&P 500 [6]. Analyst Recommendations - Lyft has 1 sell rating, 24 hold ratings, and 11 buy ratings, with a consensus target price of $22.92, indicating a potential upside of 12.53% - Tencent has no sell ratings, 0 hold ratings, 3 buy ratings, and 1 strong buy rating, with a consensus target price of $102.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.09% - Analysts favor Tencent over Lyft based on stronger consensus ratings and higher potential upside [8].

Core Insights - Lyft has demonstrated significant improvements in its business model, entering 2026 with stronger fundamentals and a clearer strategy [1][16] - The company has shifted from a recovery narrative to one with genuine long-term potential, focusing on disciplined operations rather than expansive growth [15][17] Financial Performance - Lyft achieved consistent, self-funded profitability for the first time, generating multiple quarters of positive free cash flow and improved adjusted EBITDA margins [4][5] - The company tightened its cost structure, optimized driver incentives, and improved service reliability, leading to increased ride volume and rider frequency [6][5] Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Freenow has broadened Lyft's reach and diversified its revenue base, transforming its identity from a North America-centric company to a more global mobility network [8][9] - Lyft's partnership-led technology strategy has allowed it to expand capabilities in autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence without incurring high R&D costs [10][11] Competitive Positioning - Despite Uber's scale advantage, Lyft has maintained its competitive position by focusing on its core US market, leveraging a better understanding of local customers [12][14] - The strategic acquisition of Freenow provides Lyft with instant market presence in Europe, enhancing its competitive stance against larger rivals [13][9] Future Outlook - Lyft's improved profitability, strategic expansion, and capital-light approach to technology position it for potential growth in 2026 [16][17] - The key question for investors is whether Lyft can sustain its momentum and transition from a recovery story to a durable growth narrative [17]

Core Insights - Lyft enters 2026 in a stronger position, having achieved consistent profitability and expanded internationally through the Freenow acquisition, but the upcoming year will be critical for validating these achievements [1][14] Profitability and Financial Performance - Lyft's major accomplishment in 2025 was achieving consistent profitability, with multiple quarters of positive free cash flow and expanding EBITDA margins, which investors will want to see sustained in 2026 [4][5] - The market will closely monitor Lyft's ability to expand margins modestly, as any slip in profitability could quickly erode investor confidence [5] Strategic Initiatives - The Freenow acquisition is a significant strategic move for Lyft, providing a presence in Europe and access to regulated taxi markets, but successful integration of different technology stacks and payment systems will be crucial [7][8] - If Lyft successfully integrates Freenow, it could become a long-term growth driver, but missteps could complicate execution and weigh on margins [9] Competitive Positioning - Lyft stabilized its competitive position in 2025, with growth in active riders and gross bookings, but must maintain this momentum in 2026 without reigniting costly incentive battles [10][12] - To demonstrate competitive resilience, Lyft needs to keep riders engaged, ensure strong driver satisfaction, and improve ride completion reliability [12] Investor Outlook - The execution in 2026 will determine whether Lyft can transition from a turnaround story to a durable growth narrative, with investors advised to monitor the stock closely [14][15]

Market Overview - The global robotaxi market is projected to reach $45.7 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 91.8% from 2023 to 2030 [1] LYFT's Strategy and Partnerships - Lyft is establishing a strong presence in the robotaxi market through strategic partnerships, allowing it to avoid significant R&D expenses [2] - Lyft has partnered with Alphabet's Waymo to bring fully autonomous ride-hailing services to Nashville by 2026, utilizing Lyft's fleet-management capabilities [3][4] - Additional partnerships with May Mobility, Mobileye Global, and Nexar highlight Lyft's competitive positioning in the AV market [5][6] WRD's Expansion and Operations - WeRide is expanding internationally, with a significant investment from Grab to accelerate the rollout of Level 4 autonomous robotaxis in Southeast Asia [7] - WeRide is launching autonomous vehicles in Singapore through a collaboration with Grab, marking the first autonomous shuttle deployment in a residential area [8] - WeRide has also partnered with Uber in the Middle East, launching commercial robotaxi services in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh [9][11] Comparative Performance - Over the past six months, LYFT shares have gained over 38%, outperforming WRD's shares [13] - LYFT has a Value Score of B, while WRD has a Value Score of F, indicating a more favorable valuation for LYFT [15] Conclusion on Investment Potential - LYFT's partnership-based approach allows for faster scaling of AV services by leveraging advanced technologies, while WRD's vertical integration may limit flexibility [22] - Both LYFT and WRD currently carry a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), but LYFT appears to be a better investment option based on performance and valuation metrics [23]

Key Takeaways LYFT posted Q3 gross bookings of $4.8B, up 16% YoY, marking its 18th straight quarter of double-digit growth. Growth was fueled by a record 28.7M active riders and 248.8M rides, both up double digits year over year.Q4 gross bookings are projected to rise 17-20% YoY, driven by service levels and expanded market presence.Lyft (LYFT) , the San Francisco-based ridesharing company, continues to benefit from a steady rise in gross bookings. This improvement is largely driven by an expanding active r ...

Core Insights - Lyft Inc. is currently viewed as a high short interest stock with a raised price target of $26 by Wells Fargo, reflecting a positive outlook for the US rideshare market in 2026, although concerns about international diversification remain [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Lyft reported a quarterly revenue of $1.69 billion, marking a year-over-year growth of 10.67%, but fell short of expectations by $13.18 million [2] - The company earned $0.30 per share, missing Street estimates by $0.01, despite achieving record highs in Driver Hours, Active Riders, and Gross Bookings [2] - Active Riders increased by 18% and Gross Bookings rose by 16%, with 70% of ride growth coming from underpenetrated markets [2] Strategic Initiatives - Lyft has launched a partnership with United Airlines, allowing users to earn miles on eligible rides, aimed at enhancing customer loyalty [3] - The company is expanding its autonomous vehicle (AV) partnerships, including collaborations with Waymo and Tensor, powered by NVIDIA, to strengthen its position in the AV value chain [3] - Recent acquisitions, such as Free Now in Europe and TBR Global Chauffeuring, are intended to double Lyft's Total Addressable Market (TAM) and enhance its global presence and service offerings [3] Company Overview - Lyft operates a peer-to-peer marketplace for on-demand ridesharing in the US and Canada, providing access to various transportation options through its platform and mobile applications [4]

PresentationAll right. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our next fireside chat this time with Erin Brewer, the CFO of Lyft. Good to see you.Brian NowakMorgan Stanley, Research Division Thanks for joining us. Let's do the disclosures first to get that out of the way. Please note that all important disclosures, including personal holdings disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures appear on the Morgan Stanley public website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. They are also available at the registr ...