B2C跨境电商

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赛维时代(301381):竞争加剧下盈利能力短期承压 关注关税影响
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:50
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for 2024, but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability due to intensified competition and rising costs [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 210 million, a decrease of 36.2% [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.46 billion, up 36.6%, with net profit of 47.03 million, down 45.3%, aligning with market expectations [1]. - Quarterly revenue growth for 2024 was 44.7% in Q1, 55.5% in Q2, 63.9% in Q3, and 58.7% in Q4, while net profit showed fluctuations, with a notable decline in Q4 [1]. Business Segments - The apparel segment is expected to continue rapid growth, with 2024 revenue projected at 7.45 billion, a 59.4% increase, driven by strong performance from top brands [2]. - The top five brands accounted for 81% of apparel revenue, with sales growth of 50.4%, 61.9%, and 39% for the leading brands Coofandy, Ekouaer, and Avidlove respectively [2]. - Non-apparel revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 2.32 billion, a 33.9% increase, reflecting steady growth through focused category simplification [2]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces short-term pressure on profitability due to intense competition and increased promotional efforts, leading to a decline in gross margin [3]. - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 43.8%, with apparel and non-apparel margins declining by 2.2 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 43.9%, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.3 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.4 percentage points [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading B2C cross-border e-commerce player in apparel, focusing on brand building and market expansion in non-US regions [3]. - Inventory levels are expected to rise by 125% in 2024, which may support operations amid uncertainties regarding US tariffs [3]. - Plans include leveraging core capabilities in apparel to enhance brand growth and market share, while also expanding supply chain operations to mitigate trade risks [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to competitive pressures and tariff uncertainties, the net profit forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 37% to 310 million, with a new forecast for 2026 at 430 million [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27 and 19 for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price adjustment of 20% down to 24, indicating a potential upside of 16% [4].