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关税扰动下,如何布局医药板块
2025-06-18 00:54
Summary of Conference Call on Pharmaceutical Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pharmaceutical sector, particularly the impact of tariffs on innovative drugs and the performance of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments Impact of Tariffs on Innovative Drugs - Innovative drugs are minimally affected by tariffs due to the "borrowing ship" model, which allows companies to avoid customs duties by licensing patents to U.S. firms [2]. - For example, even with a 100% tariff on certain oncology products from Hehuang Pharmaceutical, the valuation impact is only 1% to 2% [1][2]. Future Development of Innovative Drug Sector - The future growth of the innovative drug sector relies heavily on business development (BD) logic. The second half of 2025 may see a divergence in market performance, with companies that can deliver on BD continuing to rise, while those that cannot may face declines [3][4]. - A significant increase in conflict of interest agreements is expected in 2025, which will transition into service contracts requiring about two quarters to digest, indicating sustained BD activity throughout the year [4]. Export Dynamics - China's exports of pharmaceutical products to the U.S. are relatively low, with medical devices and diagnostic reagents making up over 30% of total exports, while ordinary drugs account for less than 20% [5]. Performance of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - The TCM market is showing signs of improvement in Q2 2025, with the high base effect from Q1 diminishing. The third quarter is expected to see accelerated performance due to a lower base from the previous year’s anti-corruption measures in healthcare [6]. - Key stocks to watch include Zhaoli Pharmaceutical, which has a high degree of certainty in procurement and performance completion [6]. Biopharmaceutical Sector Stability - The biopharmaceutical sector, particularly vaccines and blood products, is expected to maintain stable growth. Investors are encouraged to focus on the long-term potential of these companies based on their existing business foundations [3][8]. Additional Important Insights - The overall valuation in the innovative drug sector is currently around three times price-to-sales (PS) ratio, with expectations to correct to five times PS, indicating significant upside potential [4]. - Retail performance for TCM products is strong, with notable sales growth for products like Ma Ying Long hemorrhoid ointment and Yunnan Baiyao's Qi Xue Kang [6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting the resilience of innovative drugs against tariffs, the promising outlook for TCM, and the stability of the biopharmaceutical industry.