47,000 Alicia. If nothing else is representative of a resilient market, >> resilient market, resilient economy despite all the fears and earnings that are being revised upwards and the Fed is cutting into this. So we did have our V scare.It took 3% off the top pretty quickly and then ultimately what came through is that corporates are resilient and whatever fears there were wasn't going to rebound further. In the end, the tariff conversation is quickly absorbed by markets to not be what's going to undo this ...

Market Trends & Sentiment - The market's current highs, reminiscent of pre-peak levels in November 2021, are accompanied by a "memeish mood," but it's less extreme than in 2021 [1] - Investors are taking profits from tech stocks and seeking temporary alternative investments while the market is at all-time highs [1] - A return to retail investors' favorite stocks like Nvidia and Tesla is expected in about a month, leading to a cooling off of meme stocks [1] Portfolio Strategy & Diversification - The current market environment makes diversification a hard sell, but it's a good time for concerned investors to exit before potential market corrections [1][2] - International stocks, including international ETFs, are a decent bet, especially in the tech sector, given the global spread of AI development [2][3][4] - Emerging Asia, particularly China, is considered a speculative investment due to data reliability and legal restrictions for American investors [6][7][8] AI Investment Landscape - The AI trade is expected to continue due to significant investments from companies like Meta and Microsoft, each investing $80 billion annually, and Alphabet increasing its capital expenditure by $10 billion [5] - The US dominance in AI tech is unlikely to continue, with the EU, Latin America, and Asian countries also making advancements [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a balanced investment portfolio by mixing stocks and bonds, suggesting a typical allocation of 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, with variations based on individual risk tolerance [1][2][4]. Group 1: Stock Investments - A balanced portfolio should include both U.S. and international dividend-paying stocks, with the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) focusing on U.S. stocks and the Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF (VYMI) covering international stocks [5][7]. - The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF consists of over 580 U.S. dividend-paying companies, with a dividend yield of 2.8%, which is more than double that of the S&P 500 index [6]. - The Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF includes over 1,500 international stocks, offering a higher dividend yield of 4.1% [7]. Group 2: Bond Investments - The bond market is larger and more complex than the stock market, making bond ETFs a suitable choice for most investors. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) provides exposure to the entire U.S. bond market [9]. - The Vanguard Total International Bond Market ETF (BNDX) complements the U.S. bond exposure by offering a diversified global bond portfolio, with yields of approximately 3.8% for BND and 4.2% for BNDX [10]. - A recommended allocation for bonds is to keep 60% to 75% in domestic bonds and the remainder in international bonds, ensuring diversification across the bond market [11]. Group 3: Portfolio Management - The proposed portfolio consisting of four ETFs is designed for long-term income and capital appreciation, requiring minimal management with only four trades to start and annual rebalancing [12].

Tech Sector Analysis - Tech earnings continue to print well into the double digits, reaching all-time highs, driven by fundamentals rather than just multiple expansion [1] - The value of tech in portfolios is significant, especially with tariff uncertainty, making US growth exposure valuable [2] - Overweighting tech in portfolios can be justified if earnings continue to print and multiples expand, particularly if a tariff-induced slowdown occurs [3] - Quality active management is crucial within the tech sector, specifically within the "Magnificent 7" portion [4] Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The market is still awaiting the bite of tariffs, with a wide range of potential outcomes [5][6] - Commentary on consumer behavior and business investment decisions is important in assessing the impact of tariffs [6] - Focus should be on how tariff rates on major partners (Canada, Mexico, China) affect the economy, while monitoring GDP resilience [8] - There are concerns about the lower cohort, with negative year-on-year card spend and light comps in certain sectors [7] Investment Strategy - A balanced approach in a multi-asset portfolio is currently most appropriate [10] - Mid-single-digit yields on core fixed income are competitive with mid-single-digit earnings yields on equities, given elevated multiples [11] - The strategy is to remain patient, vigilant, and opportunistic, waiting for the next bout of volatility [12] - US growth is expected to be the dominant driver of 10-year Treasury yields in the long term, with yields in the mid-4% range commensurate with US growth [14]