Economic Growth Outlook - India's economy is projected to maintain strong growth momentum, with GDP expected to expand by around 8.1% in Q3FY26, supported by strong domestic demand and steady economic activity across sectors [1][10] - The first advance estimates indicate that India's GDP is projected to grow at 7.4% in FY26, primarily driven by domestic demand [5][10] Consumption Trends - High-frequency economic indicators suggest resilient economic activity during Q3FY26, with strong rural consumption supported by positive signals from both farm and non-farm activities [2][10] - Urban consumption has shown steady improvement, aided by fiscal stimulus and increased spending since the last festive season [2][10] GDP Base Year Revision - India has updated its GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, with new series scheduled for release on February 27, 2026, aimed at better reflecting the current structure of the economy [7][11] - The revision is expected to incorporate additional data and revisions, with previous quarterly GDP figures for the first and second quarters likely to change [6][10] Consumer Price Index Update - The base year for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been updated to 2024, which will provide a more accurate measure of inflation based on current consumption patterns [8][11] - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is examining the revision of the inflation targeting range following the CPI base year update, which will be considered in the next policy [8][11]

Economic Growth Projections - India's GDP growth in FY26 is projected to be closer to 7.5%, with potential for upward revision following the base year revision to 2022-23 [2][4] - Current official projections by the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimate real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26, up from 6.5% in FY25 [4] - The second advance estimates, incorporating additional data, are scheduled for release on February 27, 2026, and are expected to reflect changes from the base year revision [2][4] Income Levels - Per capita national income is projected to increase by Rs 16,025 annually, reaching Rs 2,47,487 in FY26, indicating expected growth momentum [3][4] Sector-wise Growth Projections - Agriculture and allied activities are estimated to grow by 3.1% in FY26, down from 4.6% in the previous year [3][4] - The services sector is expected to expand by 9.1% in FY26, significantly higher than the 7.2% growth recorded last year, with all sub-sectors anticipated to outpace last year's levels [3][4] - Industrial growth is estimated at 6.0% in FY26, slightly higher than the 5.9% growth seen in FY25, supported by strong manufacturing output growth of 7.0% [3][4] - Mining output is projected to decline by 0.7% in FY26, contrasting with a growth of 2.7% in FY25 [3][4] Historical Trends - The gap between GDP growth estimates published by the Reserve Bank of India and the NSO has historically remained within a narrow range of 20–30 basis points [2][4]