(A summary of the financial performance of TFI can be found here.) Even as the quarterly comparisons to 2024 were mostly negative, TFI International CEO Alain Bedard used his earnings conference call with analysts Friday to offer a solidly positive view of his company, and a strong outlook into 2026. He doesn’t always do that; Bedard has been known to be blunt in assessing issues faced at TFI, particularly in its U.S. LTL operations which were built off the back of the acquisition of UPS Freight in 2021. ...

Health Impact - Research estimates that America could experience approximately 42,500 excess deaths annually by 2034 due to Donald Trump's Big Beautiful Bill [1] - The projected excess deaths surpass the current annual mortality rate of breast cancer [1]

Company Participants - The conference call included key participants from Yara, such as the CEO Svein Tore Holsether, CFO Magnus Krogh Ankarstrand, and Head of Market Intelligence Dag Tore Mo [1] Conference Call Overview - The call was organized to discuss Yara's second quarter results, with Maria Gabrielsen leading the session and facilitating the Q&A segment [2][3] Q&A Session - The first question during the Q&A was posed by Christian Faitz from Kepler Cheuvreux, focusing on Yara's blue ammonia project in the U.S. and its relation to the "Big Beautiful Bill" [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to companies such as Caterpillar (CAT), CNH Industrial (CNH), and Cummins (CMI), while some companies like AGCO are rated "Neutral" [5][137]. Core Insights - The report suggests that global equipment markets may bottom in 2025, particularly for agricultural machinery, with a cautious optimism for recovery in truck and construction markets [12][18]. - The "Big Beautiful Bill" is viewed positively for machinery fundamentals, with provisions supporting equipment demand and domestic industrial activity [29][33]. - Tariff impacts are expected to have a significant influence on demand and margins, with potential upside for companies in the second half of 2025 as tariff rates stabilize [21][23]. Key Machinery Themes - Agricultural machinery has outperformed other sectors, attributed to a cycle trough in global demand [6]. - Machinery stocks are currently not pricing in tariff concerns, although demand uncertainty remains prevalent [8]. - The report anticipates a decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026 due to high new machine prices and elevated used inventories [16]. Construction - The outlook for non-residential construction spending remains stable, supported by mega project backlogs growing at a ~17% CAGR from 2024-2029 [38]. - Contractor profit margins have improved slightly, but project cancellations due to tariffs have increased significantly [45][48]. - The report expects global construction equipment sales volume to bottom in 2025, with a recovery anticipated in 2026 [50]. Mining and Oil & Gas - The mining equipment outlook is stable, with solid expectations for mining capex and miner EBITDA, driven by strong commodity prices [61]. - The oil and gas sector faces challenges with falling crude prices, leading to a weak near-term outlook for upstream spending [67]. NA Rental - The rental equipment market is expected to see steady growth, with total URI rental revenue growth projected at 4.0% in 2025 [73]. - The industry has consolidated, with the top 10 players now accounting for ~40% of the market, leading to better pricing discipline [78]. - NA rental penetration is above pre-pandemic levels, with specialty rental areas identified as key growth opportunities [80]. Ag Equipment - The US grain market is stabilizing but remains relatively depressed, with high new machinery prices impacting farmer sentiment [85][90]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026, with a potential recovery in 2027 [92]. - Positive trends are noted in Europe and South America, with expectations for growth in agricultural sales in those regions [95][98]. Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle market shows weak freight fundamentals, with spot rates remaining depressed [111]. - Class 8 tractor inventories are in reasonable shape, but overall market conditions suggest a weak outlook [113]. - The report indicates that pre-buying expectations for 2026 may be overly optimistic due to ongoing market weakness [120]. Short Cycle - Industrial PMIs have retreated, indicating a choppy macro backdrop, but there is cautious optimism for recovery in 2026 [126]. - Demand remains stable, but recent order traction may have been influenced by tariff pre-buying [128]. - Companies in the automation space are showing positive forward commentary, indicating potential growth despite uncertainty [131].

Industry Analysis - The "Big Beautiful Bill" reflects a broader underlying issue [1]