Group 1: Market Trends and Price Movements - Bitcoin's price is currently at $87,403, down nearly 3% in the last 24 hours, with warnings of a potential "mega crash" towards the $40,000 level [1] - Concerns about a deeper pullback have intensified, with comparisons made to the 2021 market peak, suggesting Bitcoin is following a four-year boom-and-bust cycle [2][3] - Despite the volatility, Strategy has made a significant purchase of $108.8 million worth of Bitcoin [6] Group 2: Industry Perspectives on Market Cycles - Prominent industry figures, including Fundstrat's Tom Lee, argue that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer a reliable framework for understanding Bitcoin's market dynamics [4] - Lee noted that Bitcoin's recent price action, which included a 36% rise earlier in the year followed by a sharp decline, indicates a shift away from historical cycle patterns [5] - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed more to structural factors, such as market deleveraging, rather than halving dynamics [7] - Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood also supports the view that the four-year cycle is being disrupted [8]

Bitcoin missed St. Nick’s sleigh this year. Instead of a festive Santa rally, the top crypto is trudging into Christmas down 30% from its October all-time high despite macroeconomic tailwinds. While a “goldilocks” mix of a global rate cut cycle and rising liquidity have driven strong returns across stocks and gold, Bitcoin has disappointed investors, analysts David Brickell and Chris Mills of the London Crypto Club said in their weekly newsletter. “Despite all of the positive idiosyncratic drivers for ...

Key Points Bitcoin has typically followed a four-year cycle of boom and bust. If history is any guide, Bitcoin could be in store for a significant drawdown in 2026. According to Wall Street strategists, a new supercycle of rapid price appreciation will replace Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › Historically, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has followed a four-year cycle of boom and bust. The bust years have come like clockwork: 2014, 2018, and 2022 were all years ...

Bitcoin’s three-year rally may be over, with signs pointing to the leading cryptocurrency entering a prolonged bear market. That’s according to blockchain data firm CryptoQuant, whose researchers said in a Friday report that investors should be prepared for the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Buyer exhaustion means the biggest digital coin could still drop as low as $56,000, the report noted. But it reassured investors that such a move was unlikely — if Bitcoin does drop that low, it would be the sharp ...

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle can rest in peace. Investors have long-expected Bitcoin to sing the same song every four years. A halving cuts the rewards for issuing coins, kicking off an explosive price rally and subsequent bull market. Later, when euphoria settles in and traders reckon price will never go down, investors start selling and the price collapses into a bear market. Not anymore, a growing number of analysts say. “The forces that previously drove four-year cycles — the bitcoin halvi ...

Key Points Bitcoin is down 4% for the year, and currently trades below the $100,000 price level. Institutional investors and corporations continue to buy Bitcoin, helping to offset any selling pressure in the market. Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle of boom and bust. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › Heading into this year, crypto investors expected big things from Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). The conventional wisdom was that Bitcoin would double in value, eventually hitting a price o ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound, climbing nearly 8% in a single day, indicating potential signs of a local bottom forming [1][8] - Bitfinex noted "seller exhaustion" in the market following a $19 billion leverage flush, which has reduced market risk and created conditions for stabilization [2][4][8] - The market is now operating on a "leaner leverage base," which decreases the risk of sweeping liquidations and eases pressure on prices [3][4] Market Dynamics - The recent rally briefly pushed Bitcoin toward $94,000, with the asset trading near $91,440 at the time of publication [3] - A violent correction in October led to a significant flush of leverage, which contributed to a broader downturn that saw Bitcoin drop to lows around $82,000 in late November [4] - Analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is losing relevance, with some suggesting that the current cycle appears different from previous ones [5][8] Seasonal Trends - Historical data shows December has been a quieter month for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 4.69% since 2013, although November this year closed with a steep loss of over 17% [6] - Market commentators express differing views on the current cycle, with some asserting that it does not resemble past cycles [7][8] Future Outlook - ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood predicts a liquidity rebound for crypto markets, driven by anticipated Federal Reserve policy shifts before year-end [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin was expected to double in value in 2025 but is currently down for the year, having fallen below both $100,000 and $90,000 price levels, raising concerns about a potential steeper decline [1] Short-term Investment Perspective - Gold has increased by 55% this year, outperforming Bitcoin, which is down 6% [2] - The argument that Bitcoin should track the price of gold is weakened as Bitcoin is declining while gold is rising, suggesting that investors may prefer gold over Bitcoin [2][3] Long-term Investment Perspective - For long-term investors, Bitcoin remains a viable investment due to its historical performance, having only three down years since 2010, with significant growth in other years [4] - Bitcoin is characterized by cyclical behavior, typically experiencing boom-and-bust cycles every four years, with a significant decline expected after substantial gains in 2023 and 2024 [5][6] - Despite recent price declines, Bitcoin still makes sense as a high upside investment for those with a five-year or longer time horizon [7]