Bitcoin is flashing signals that have marked major turning points in past cycles, but not yet the kind that typically accompany a durable bottom.  Several on-chain indicators tracked by CryptoQuant suggest the market remains stuck between a mid-cycle correction and a deeper reset, even as investors debate whether the worst may already be priced in. Long-Term Holder (LTH) capitulation, Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and the percentage of supply in profit are all cu ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is expected to experience steady gains over the next decade, characterized by lower volatility and more measured returns, rather than explosive year-on-year rallies [1][3][8] Market Outlook - Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, predicts a prolonged upward trend for Bitcoin, indicating a "10-year grind upward of strong returns" with some fluctuations [3][8] - Hougan maintains a positive outlook for Bitcoin in 2026, reaffirming a forecast made in July prior to Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $125,100 in October [3][4] Recent Price Movements - Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,800, reflecting a decline of approximately 3.8% over the past 30 days [4] - The asset's recent pullback from its October highs has sparked debate about whether the current market cycle has peaked, with some analysts suggesting a potential downturn in 2026 [4][5] Institutional vs. Retail Behavior - Hougan attributes Bitcoin's current price stability to "persistent, slow-moving institutional buying," which has cushioned the downside compared to previous cycles that experienced drawdowns of 60% or more [6][8] - Retail investor behavior has contributed to recent market weakness, as fast-moving retail investors exited positions in anticipation of a downturn [5][6] Diverging Analyst Opinions - Not all analysts share Hougan's optimistic view; veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned of a potential decline to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, citing macroeconomic risks and market structure concerns [7][8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent price correction from $110,000 to approximately $80,000 is attributed to significant selling by early whales who have a cost basis around $16,000, which is creating downward pressure on the market [1][2] - The current market dynamics are characterized by a competition between legacy whales and institutional investors, with the former realizing profits through substantial daily sales [2][3] - Institutional demand from Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy has not been sufficient to counterbalance the selling pressure from early whales, leading to a challenging market outlook for Bitcoin [3][4] Market Dynamics - Early Bitcoin whales are selling at rates of hundreds of millions of USD daily, which is overwhelming the buying power of institutional whales [2] - Institutional investors, including those holding over 10,000 BTC, have an average cost basis around $38,000, while Binance traders entered positions around $50,000, indicating many market participants are in profit and may sell if necessary [3] - Despite earlier inflows from spot ETFs and MicroStrategy, recent data shows a decline in these inflows, with outflows starting to dominate the market [4] Market Cycle Analysis - On-chain profit-and-loss metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently in a "shoulder" phase of its market cycle, suggesting limited short-term growth potential and an increased risk of correction [5] - The valuation multiplier has shifted to a neutral-to-flat outlook, indicating that market leverage is less efficient compared to previous cycles, which could hinder significant gains [6] - While a dramatic crash of 70-80% is not expected, corrections of up to 30% are considered reasonable, with potential drops from $100,000 to around $70,000 [7]