Bitcoin is likely to deliver steady gains over the next decade, but investors should not expect the kind of explosive year-on-year rallies seen in earlier cycles, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan. Key Takeaways: Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects steady, lower-volatility Bitcoin gains over the next decade rather than explosive rallies. Hougan remains bullish on 2026, citing ongoing institutional buying despite recent price weakness. Some analysts warn Bitcoin could still face de ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent price correction from $110,000 to approximately $80,000 is attributed to significant selling by early whales who have a cost basis around $16,000, which is creating downward pressure on the market [1][2] - The current market dynamics are characterized by a competition between legacy whales and institutional investors, with the former realizing profits through substantial daily sales [2][3] - Institutional demand from Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy has not been sufficient to counterbalance the selling pressure from early whales, leading to a challenging market outlook for Bitcoin [3][4] Market Dynamics - Early Bitcoin whales are selling at rates of hundreds of millions of USD daily, which is overwhelming the buying power of institutional whales [2] - Institutional investors, including those holding over 10,000 BTC, have an average cost basis around $38,000, while Binance traders entered positions around $50,000, indicating many market participants are in profit and may sell if necessary [3] - Despite earlier inflows from spot ETFs and MicroStrategy, recent data shows a decline in these inflows, with outflows starting to dominate the market [4] Market Cycle Analysis - On-chain profit-and-loss metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently in a "shoulder" phase of its market cycle, suggesting limited short-term growth potential and an increased risk of correction [5] - The valuation multiplier has shifted to a neutral-to-flat outlook, indicating that market leverage is less efficient compared to previous cycles, which could hinder significant gains [6] - While a dramatic crash of 70-80% is not expected, corrections of up to 30% are considered reasonable, with potential drops from $100,000 to around $70,000 [7]