Core Viewpoint - There is a potential opportunity to acquire GOOGL stock at a relative discount, as indicated by the volatility skew in the options market [1] Volatility Analysis - Implied volatility (IV) across the options chain shows a relatively flat skew near the spot price, suggesting calm market conditions despite broader concerns about artificial intelligence [2][3] - The put IV is gradually rising towards lower strike boundaries, but remains lower than call IV, indicating a lack of priority for downside protection [3] Call Options Insight - The upper strike boundaries exhibit a flat skew with a tight IV spread between puts and calls, suggesting that call options may be undervalued on a volatility basis, potentially incentivizing bullish positions [4] Expected Trading Parameters - According to the Black-Scholes model, GOOGL stock is expected to trade within a range of approximately $285 to $323 over the next 30 days, with a 68% probability of falling within this range [5][6] - The expected price movement calculation is based on market pricing of uncertainty, which may not always be accurate [7] Markov Property Application - The Markov property indicates that future stock movements depend on the current state, with recent trading patterns suggesting a unique market condition [10][11] - Over the next five weeks, GOOGL stock is projected to land between $295 and $325, with the highest probability density between $301 and $315, providing a narrower target than the Black-Scholes dispersion [14] Trading Strategy - A bull call spread strategy involving strikes at $310 and $315, expiring on March 20, is considered attractive, requiring GOOGL stock to rise above $315 for maximum payout potential of nearly 144% [15]

This structure points to information by omission. With GOOGL stock down quite noticeably this month, a temptation exists to protect against further downside, especially amid concerns about a bubble brewing in artificial intelligence. But the smart money appears relaxed, which could open the doors to a contrarian position.First, IV pricing for both puts and calls is relatively flat and measured near the spot price. As the volatility skew rises at the edges, it does so in a gentle controlled manner. Yes, put ...

分组1 - Options trading on the retail side focuses on narrowing uncertainty to improve success rates, akin to eliminating false answers on a test [1] - Volatility skew is a key mechanism for traders, allowing them to gauge smart money positioning through the premium structure of implied volatility (IV) [2] - The curvature of volatility skew across strike prices provides insights into hedging urgency among smart money traders [3] 分组2 - The Black-Scholes-derived Expected Move calculator, combined with IV fluctuations, helps predict where a target security is likely to land, with a 68% probability of landing within one standard deviation from the spot price [4] - The combination of skew and Black-Scholes assists in identifying distress signals and establishing a search radius for further analysis [5] - Cipher Mining (CIFR) is positioned in the cryptocurrency mining sector, facing challenges due to the current blockchain ecosystem but may benefit from a recent resurgence in the digital asset space [6] 分组3 - For the March 20 expiration date, downside hedging activity appears relaxed, with both put and call IV rising in lower strike price boundaries, indicating a lack of urgency in the upper boundaries [7]

Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) may rank among the most powerful tech giants in the world but compared to other hyperscalers, MSFT stock has been the worst of the bunch. That's according to prominent investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who is commonly referred to as the "SPAC King." Given the underperformance since the end of November 2022, Palihapitiya asserts that Microsoft has little to show for its investment in OpenAI.Fundamentally, with expectations lowered, it's possible that a lower magnitude of positive ne ...

Core Insights - Expand Energy (EXE) has shown resilience amidst market fluctuations, with its stock rising nearly 8% in the last five sessions, supported by analyst recommendations, positioning it as a 'Strong Buy' candidate [1] - The underlying natural gas pricing may be volatile, but strong demand for power generation is expected to bolster the company's performance [1] Options Flow Analysis - The options flow screener indicates a bullish sentiment towards EXE, with net trade sentiment at $951,000 against a total gross bullish volume of $988,500, suggesting market makers anticipate an increase in stock value [2] - The largest transactions in the options flow were for debit-based calls, indicating that investors are making directional bets on EXE stock [3] Volatility and Market Sentiment - A volatility skew analysis shows higher implied volatility for puts compared to calls, particularly for near-term expirations, indicating that traders are willing to pay more for downside protection [4] - The natural gas market's instability and geopolitical factors contribute to cautious sentiment among traders regarding EXE stock, which has only gained about 2% over the past year despite its recent performance [5] Price Expectations - According to the Black-Scholes-derived Expected Move calculator, EXE stock is projected to range between $101.94 and $117.07, suggesting a potential for upward movement within one standard deviation of price volatility [6]

Group 1 - Cipher Mining (CIFR) stock has experienced a significant decline of 24% since its closing high of $24.71 on November 5, but has recently shown strong performance with a nearly 16% increase in the past five sessions, indicating a potential recovery in the cryptocurrency sector [1] - The options market indicates a shift in sentiment towards bullish net transactions for CIFR stock, suggesting potential for further upside [2][3] - Total market capitalization of all blockchain assets is around $3.1 trillion, with a recent resurgence of greed in the crypto market reflected in positive options flow data for CIFR stock [5] Group 2 - Implied volatility (IV) data suggests that CIFR stock may experience a significant price swing for the February 20 options chain, with a projected range between $14.55 and $23.05, indicating a symmetric high-low spread of 22.61% [6] - The Black-Scholes model, while a standard for pricing derivatives, may not provide optimal forward probabilities for CIFR stock, highlighting the need for alternative analytical frameworks [7]

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood (HOOD) has experienced a significant return of nearly 188% since January, but recent volatility in the AI and cryptocurrency sectors has raised concerns about its stock performance [1][2]. Stock Performance - In the last five sessions, HOOD stock has dipped 11%, and it is down approximately 16% over the past month [1]. Market Sentiment - Despite the recent downturn, there is a case for optimism as cryptocurrencies have shown the potential for decentralized economies, suggesting a possible recovery [2]. - The options market indicates a net trade sentiment of about $2.08 million above parity, but this is modest compared to a gross bearish sentiment of $7.703 million [4]. Cultural Impact - Robinhood has become a cultural icon, introducing millions to investing during the COVID-19 crisis, which may support its long-term viability [2]. Options Trading Insights - The options flow for HOOD last week totaled $940,400, which is not remarkable given the stock's size and popularity [4]. - The implied volatility (IV) used by options traders can be misleading as it is based on the Black-Scholes model, which may not accurately reflect HOOD's unique market conditions [6]. Risk-Reward Profile - Overall, HOOD's equity shows a positive bias when considering its price behaviors since the IPO, which helps in understanding its risk-reward profile [5].