Market Overview - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with NASDAQ showing a decline while other indices are performing positively [1] - The 10-year yield has reached 4.20%, the highest since September 4, raising questions about its impact on equities [1] Interest Rates and Equities - Technical resistance for the 10-year yield is noted between 425 and 430, with a more significant resistance level for equities identified at 450 [2] - Historical context shows that yields have risen after each cut since September, with current yields only nine basis points above the levels when cuts began [3] - The rise in yields following the September cut was 100 basis points by the end of the year, suggesting that current concerns about yield increases may be overstated [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The language used by the Fed regarding future rate cuts, particularly if it is hawkish, is expected to have a more substantial impact than today's rate decision [5] - There is speculation about the potential for elevated bond market volatility returning in 2026, which could pose challenges for the market [6][7] - The market appears to have already priced in a hawkish stance from the Fed, leading to bullish sentiment among investors [8] Earnings Reports and Market Reactions - Upcoming earnings announcements from Oracle and Broadcom are anticipated to be significant for market direction, potentially overshadowing the Fed's announcements [8][12] - The market is currently at a high, with the S&P and NASDAQ showing minimal percentage changes, indicating uncertainty about future guidance from major companies [12] Future Economic Indicators - The probability of a follow-on rate cut in January has decreased to 23%, with more confidence in a cut expected by June [19][20] - The upcoming economic data next week could dramatically alter the Fed's outlook and policy decisions [22]

Check the markets here as we wait for this afternoon's Fed decision. Of course, the news conference from the chair, NASDAQ's red, everything else is green, but certainly there feels like it's a wait and see. Uh Liz, nice to have you back.Um the 10-year yield 420. >> Yep. >> Okay.That's the highest since September the 4th. Piper Sandler today says, "Is the tenure at 425 the line in the sand for equities?" So, is that the biggest wild card today. what rates do on the back of whatever the Fed says.>> Uh, yes, ...

Group 1: Corporate Developments - High-profile CEO departures have created significant buzz, including Nestle's CEO resigning over an undisclosed affair and Suntory's CEO stepping down due to potential illegal substance purchases [1] Group 2: Bond Market Volatility - Bond market volatility has been a major focus, with significant yield movements in the U.K. gilt market and across Europe, indicating potential ongoing instability [2] - France is at the center of European bond yield uncertainty, with a confidence vote in the government expected to lead to a loss for the ruling party, raising the possibility of a snap election by President Macron [4] - A straw poll by Nomura suggests that French government bond yields (OATS) would need to change dramatically to significantly impact international investor confidence, with a key rating review by Fitch on September 12 being a critical date [5] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming meeting, with a dovish stance expected from President Christine Lagarde [7] - Market observers expect Lagarde to be questioned about the situation in France during her press conference, although she is likely to avoid direct responses [8] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include German trade data on Monday, French Industrial Production data on Tuesday, U.S. Inflation data on Thursday, and German Inflation and U.K. GDP data on Friday [9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has been in a sideways trend for over half a month, with the 10-year treasury yield fluctuating around 1.65% since early April, failing to break below 1.6% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The uncertainty from tariff impacts and expectations for "rate cuts" have been the main drivers for the previous rapid rise in the bond market [4]. - The ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments is likely the reason for the recent stability in the bond market [5]. - Bullish views on the bond market are supported by the demand for safe-haven assets due to U.S.-China trade tensions, strong expectations for monetary easing, and a potential slowdown in the recovery of the economic fundamentals [6]. - Bearish views stem from the possibility of the U.S. lifting tariff sanctions, a potential delay in monetary easing, and a recovery in economic fundamentals that exceeds expectations [7]. - Both bullish and bearish perspectives seem to address the same issues but differ in their outlooks and expectations [8]. Group 2: Uncertainty Factors - The bond market continues to face significant uncertainty due to variables such as tariff negotiations, growth stabilization policies, and the timing of monetary easing measures [9]. - Until the situation becomes clearer, the bond market is expected to remain volatile [10]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - From a long-term perspective, the bond market may still represent an important component of asset allocation despite short-term fluctuations [11]. - The Wind pure bond fund index has shown positive returns every year from 2007 to 2025, with a cumulative increase of 117.94% and an annualized return of 4.42% from 2007 to 2024, indicating stability compared to the stock market [12][15]. - As the domestic economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development, long-term bond yields may continue to decline, presenting ongoing allocation value in bond assets [16]. - However, it is important to note that after a prolonged upward trend, volatility in the bond market may increase, suggesting a need to lower expectations and adopt a "stability-first" approach in response to potential future fluctuations [16].