Market Analysis & Prediction - The report anticipates a significant market correction in September, triggered by the FED's rate cut, unlike the insignificant cut in September 2024 [2] - The analysis points to Bitcoin's bearish chart patterns, including a CME gap around 93 thousand, liquidity concentration in the 90-95 thousand region, and the need to retest the EMA50 weekly, suggesting a correction towards the 93-95 thousand range [3] - The report highlights bearish divergences on daily and weekly Bitcoin charts, reinforcing the expectation of a correction [3] - The author expects ETH to run to 7-8 thousand and Bitcoin to push toward 145-150 thousand after the September correction [5] Retail Investor Behavior - On-chain metrics indicate retail investors typically buy high and sell low, exemplified by their late entry between 110-120 thousand after the June dip from 110 thousand to 98 thousand was largely bought by big players [4] - The market needs to flush out retail investors who entered heavily at high levels, driving prices down to their liquidation zone of 90-95 thousand before the next upward movement [4] - The current market sentiment is described as a "fake bullish sentiment" fueled by euphoria, endless expectations, and blind trust in authority, which is considered a bull trap [4] Trading Strategy - The author has been taking daily profits of 10% from ETH and BTC holdings since August 18th, rolling it into building a short position within a defined "short area" [5] - The author's strategy involves accumulating shorts and distributing spot holdings within the mentioned short area, focusing solely on BTC and excluding ETH or other altcoins [5] - The author's current portfolio allocation is 60% Cash + Shorts and 40% Spot bags, with a daily shift of 10% from Spot into Shorts, using x5 leverage [5]

Crypto Market Rally Drivers - Short squeezes, driven by traders betting against price increases, can push crypto prices higher unexpectedly, especially short-term [4] - Long liquidations, the reverse of short squeezes, occur when traders betting on price increases are forced to sell, driving prices down [5] - Monitoring short squeeze liquidations on platforms like Coin Glass can indicate if a rally is leverage-driven [6] - Genuine rallies break through resistance levels, while false rallies are rejected [8] - Whales may intentionally trigger short squeezes to create FOMO and liquidate short positions [10] Macro and Crypto Conditions - Bullish macro conditions are indicated by rising major stock indices like the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (Rut) [14][15] - Lower 10-year Treasury yields are bullish, while higher yields are bearish [17] - A falling US dollar (DXY) indicates increased global liquidity, which is generally positive for crypto, with a few months lag [18][19] - Bitcoin (BTC) uptrends are a simple proxy for bullish crypto conditions [22] - Ethereum (ETH) uptrends, especially relative to BTC (ETH/BTC chart), indicate increasing risk appetite among crypto investors and potential capital rotation into altcoins [23][24][25] Rally Sustainability and Rotation - The more spot crypto ETFs get approved, the easier it is for macro liquidity to find its way into the crypto market [30] - Overextended long leverage makes the market vulnerable to dips and whale-triggered liquidations [28] - Bearish macro or crypto catalysts can trigger long liquidations and end rallies [29] - Capital rotation between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins is often leverage-driven, restricting supply and amplifying price movements [41][42][43][44] - Liquidity can move freely between different crypto niches resulting in a sort of rolling rotation rather than a sequential rotation [46][47][48]

Core Insights - The article provides a perspective on stock analysis and investment opportunities based on the author's experience and insights [1]. Group 1 - The analyst expresses a beneficial long position in GOOG shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2]. - The analysis aims to offer contrasting views on investment portfolios, highlighting the importance of diverse perspectives in stock evaluation [1]. - The article emphasizes the necessity for investors to conduct personal research and due diligence before making investment decisions [3].

Market Sentiment - The market might be a bull trap [1] - Remaining cautious is advised [1]