Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing the business cycle to identify investment opportunities and risks, advocating for a comprehensive approach that incorporates macroeconomic factors, fundamentals, technical analysis, sentiment, and market structure [1]. Group 1 - The author is a CFA charterholder with a background in financial planning and investment analysis, indicating a strong foundation in investment research [1]. - The investment research approach is described as a "jack of all trades," suggesting a versatile methodology that adapts to various market conditions [1]. Group 2 - There is no disclosure of any stock, option, or similar derivative positions in the companies mentioned, indicating an unbiased perspective in the analysis [2]. - The article does not provide specific investment recommendations, reinforcing the focus on analysis rather than direct advice [3].

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin post FOMC. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. The first order of business is to fill out your bracket if you want to participate in the annual ITC March Madness bracket challenge. Winner gets a one-year subscription to ITC Premium.Uh it's fun. And if you want to go sign up, ...

I sat down with @HenrikZeberg, a business cycle analyst who predicted the COVID crash, the 2021 blow-off top, and the recent alt-season collapse.He told me the economy is already breaking. But markets will rally anyway."In 2007, markets rallied 25% in 11 weeks, right before everything crashed. We're setting up for the same playbook."Very pleased to have Henrik on @new_era_finance.TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Market Madness: Understanding Current Trends08:26 Business Cycle Insights: Late Stage Analysis16:40 Data Reliabi ...

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the equity verse. Today we're going to talk about the stock market and how it is already dropped about 5% of the 10% drop that we were sort of speculating about. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out benjamancow.com if you want to get access to the macro memo that we just published today on March 15th. So make sure you guys check that out. link is in the description below.Benjamin. co ...

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about oil and how it just had the largest rally in a single week since WTI started trading back in 1983. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel.Give the video a thumbs up and check out benjamancow. com if you want to subscribe to the monthly newsletters that we put out. We also offer other services as well.Link is in the description below. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, a week ago, one week ...

Phenomenal chart on #Bitcoin.The 1-month RSI has hit the same level as during the previous bear markets.During 2018 & 2022, we've also hit these levels.On the other hand, Copper vs. Gold have been in the longest bear market since the existence of $BTC.That's about to reverse and that would strengthen the business cycle and could lead into a slow upwards year for Bitcoin.The bottom is closer than we think.Credits to @JamesEastonUK. ...

When you're playing chess and your opponent creates one weakness, you can defend it. No problem. You have the resources.You can go defend that weakness. When they create a second weakness, you can't defend both. And that is what leads to checkmate.One of the things we've talked about for the business cycle is that the Fed can defend one weakness. If inflation is running hot, then they raise rates. If the unemployment rate is running hot, they lower rates.What do you do when they both go up. That is what lea ...

Core Thesis - Raoul Pal suggests that Bitcoin is trading at a "deep discount" relative to global liquidity conditions, indicating a potential for significant price increases if liquidity improves [2][5]. Liquidity Dynamics - A potential liquidity inflection point is anticipated in Q1 2026, driven by changes in bank regulations, particularly the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (ESLR), which may allow banks to absorb more government debt [3]. - The dynamics of the Treasury General Account (TGA) are crucial, as historical trends show that liquidity returns to markets when the TGA is drawn down, a process that Pal believes will accelerate [4]. - A weakening US dollar and expanding liquidity from China's balance sheet further support a favorable environment for risk assets [4]. Price Projections - If Bitcoin aligns with prevailing liquidity conditions, its price could approach $140,000, representing a 106% increase from current levels [5][6]. - Pal emphasizes that historical patterns suggest that gaps between liquidity expansion and asset prices close violently rather than gradually [2]. Business Cycle Indicators - Forward-looking indicators, particularly the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), are expected to strengthen, signaling an improving growth environment [7]. - Factors contributing to rising confidence and lending activity include fiscal stimulus, tax incentives for fixed asset investment, capital expenditure on data centers and energy infrastructure, and potential mortgage rate relief [7]. - Historically, if growth expectations rise alongside expanding liquidity, Bitcoin and other high-beta assets tend to outperform [8].

Hey everyone and thanks for dropping back into the macroverse. Today we are going to visualize the business cycle. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel.Give the video a thumbs up and check out benjamancow. com if you have any inquiries, if you want to reach out, or if you want to read the recent report that we published about a week ago now, the macro risk memo, which I think does a pretty good job of outlining my thoughts on where we are in the business cycle. Okay.But in th ...

And so many metrics versus gold, versus other things are signaling a bottom for Bitcoin. The markets are flashing a bottom signal on Bitcoin, not a peak signal. The business cycle is at its lowest point in 15 years.>> There is a 4-year cycle, but then there's also uh the business cycle. And I think if you look at like ISM for instance, uh actually no Bitcoin cycle has peaked without the ISM peaking. So in other words, this would be a break of the cycle.But part of it is cuz the ISM's been below 50 for a rec ...