monsitj/iStock via Getty Images By James Picerno There are many factors that drive bull and bear markets for stocks, but arguably the first among equals is the business cycle. More than a year ago, TMC Research noted that the ...

Tom Lee's 2026 Outlook: The Start of Expansion After Three Years of SuppressionIn interviews with The Prof G Pod (Dec 12) and Squawk Box (Dec 15), Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee shared his 2026 outlook.He argues markets have been suppressed by six "extinction-level" events and Fed hesitation, crushing corporate "animal spirits." He believes the business cycle only truly starts next year when rates drop and AI earnings grow, benefiting risk assets.Consequently, he sees 2026 mirroring this year: bearish first, then ...

Market Outlook & Altcoin Season Timing - Altcoin season is anticipated, driven by the business cycle, with potential catalysts including increased liquidity and fiscal stimulus [1][7][9] - The expected timing for altcoin season is towards the end of 2026, potentially peaking in Q2 [24][25] - The traditional four-year crypto cycle has shifted to a five-year cycle due to the extension of debt maturity in 2022 [13][21][22] - The Industry expects the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index to peak by 2026, aligning with the anticipated altcoin season [14] Economic Factors & Liquidity - Fiscal stimulus and liquidity injections are expected to boost the market, potentially leading to a banner year [1][9] - Deregulation of banking could positively impact small caps and the overall business cycle [17] - The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) is essentially Quantitative Easing (QE), adding liquidity to the system [16] - A potential $1.5 trillion could flow into the banking system due to the elimination of tax on tips [10] Crypto Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's performance is sensitive to monetary policy and the business cycle, currently behaving more like a risk-on asset [19] - Historically, the ISM moving above 50 has been associated with super cycle moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum [3][15][18]

The business cycle is defined by the valuation of Copper vs. Gold.Gold has gone up massively, which is basically the reasoning behind the entire risk-off thesis.However, Gold has peaked, or atleast, overextended to the upside in the short-term, which opens up the possibilities for investments in #Altcoins and #Bitcoin to outperform vs. Gold.This chart is a great representation.Essentially, those lows are where Copper is undervalued vs. Gold.The highs are when Copper is overvalued vs. Gold and where the busi ...

The international Monetary Fund just used their time and effort to put out an info video on tokenized assets. Also, will the business cycle save us? Tangem discount code - BF2025 and DAN (30% OFF!) The links below may include affiliate links, which means I may receive a commission at no cost to you if you make a purchase through a link. You DO NOT have to use the links but you will not receive any bonus if offered. Not investment advice. Crypto investing and trading involves risk of loss. ●▬▬▬▬▬▬CRYPTO CRIT ...

RT Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL)This is the best visual representation of this cycle.It's not the end of the bull market.It's the end of the bear market for #Altcoins.I keep saying that those current opportunities are massive financial opportunities that will only be granted one time in your lifetime. That's now.The business cycle has always been the prime indicator for markets to go risk-on/risk-off and in this case, the periods have been changing over time.As you can see in the visual, the low is c ...

Market Cycle Analysis - The analysis suggests the end of the bear market for Altcoins, presenting significant financial opportunities [1] - Business cycles are identified as key indicators for risk-on/risk-off market behavior, with periods changing over time [1] - Altcoin lows typically coincide with the least favorable points in the business cycle, as seen in Q2 2012, Q1/2 2016, and Q1 2020 [2] Bitcoin & ETF Impact - The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has altered market dynamics, establishing a new floor above previous all-time highs, often at $100,000+ [3] - The ETF's influence may be obscuring the actual upward potential for Bitcoin [3] Future Market Outlook - The extensive bear market suggests a potentially larger upcoming bull market, requiring more capital to move markets [4] - The traditional 4-year Web3 cycle may no longer be applicable, indicating a longer cycle with widespread opportunities [4]

Financial Performance - The company reported third quarter financial results at the high end of its guidance, indicating strong performance [1] - Guidance for the remainder of the year suggests over 5% revenue growth [1] Business Development - The company booked $2.6 billion in new business within its clinical segment during the third quarter, reflecting a healthy book-to-bill ratio of 1.15 [2] - There was a significant increase in request for proposals, which rose by 20% in dollars year-over-year [3] Market Trends - Decision timelines in the industry have started to normalize after a period of uncertainty, suggesting a recovery in the market [3] - The company believes that the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 likely represent the trough of the recent cycle [3]

Market Cycle Analysis - The crypto market has historically followed the business cycle, potentially extending into 2026, suggesting a prolonged bull market [2] - Macro analysts suggest the crypto market cycle is no longer solely based on Bitcoin halving but correlates with the economic cycle, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Index [6][7] - The ISM, an indicator of economic activity, has historically correlated with Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms, but this pattern has recently broken [9][10] - An extended debt refinancing cycle, with average debt maturity increasing to approximately 54 years due to the pandemic, may be extending the liquidity and crypto cycles [12] Liquidity and Economic Indicators - Some analysts argue that economic indicators like the ISM are misleading and have unclear correlation with global liquidity [16] - Global liquidity, measured by Global M2, has risen, but Bitcoin's price has flatlined, weakening the correlation between the two [18] - Central bank policies and debt refinancing challenges could lead to a contraction in global liquidity, potentially impacting the crypto market [20][21] - Economic data may be deceptive due to factors like inflation and unemployment rates, making the economy appear stronger than it is [26][27] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The crypto market is expected to continue a gradual upward trend, mirroring the overall economy [40] - Assuming a recession is avoided, Q4 2025 is projected to be bullish, with Bitcoin potentially reaching its cycle top, followed by Ethereum and altcoins approximately one month later [47][48] - The current crypto market cycle differs from previous cycles due to less loose monetary policy, more mature regulatory frameworks, and different patterns of retail participation [44][45] - AI-related ventures have significantly contributed to economic growth, particularly in the US, impacting sectors like chip manufacturing and infrastructure [36][37]

https://t.co/qhAuw9P0EYRedacted (@__w4t3r__):@blknoiz06 Thoughts on the 4 year crypto cycle actually being correlated to the business cycle which is looking like a 5 year cycle leading into 2026 this time around? ...