Core Insights - The ongoing threat of U.S. tariffs and the premium status of COMEX/LME copper prices are likely to sustain the volume of copper shipments to the U.S. [2][5] - Since the announcement of potential tariffs on imported copper in February, COMEX copper prices have risen significantly, reaching a historical high in March [3][4]. - Analysts expect an additional 250,000-300,000 tons of copper to be shipped to the U.S. between March and May due to the current market conditions [5]. Price Dynamics - COMEX copper prices reached a record high of $11,633 per ton in March, with a premium of over $1,570 per ton compared to LME prices [4]. - Although the COMEX/LME copper premium has decreased to $600 per ton, it remains high enough to incentivize traders to ship copper to the U.S. [6]. Shipping Trends - Traders are increasingly using bulk carriers instead of container ships to expedite shipments before potential tariffs are imposed, reducing transit time from 40 days to approximately two weeks [8]. - In March, 95,202 tons of copper were shipped to the U.S. via bulk carriers, increasing to 127,539 tons in April, compared to around 44,000 tons in January and February [9]. Supply Sources - The majority of copper supplies to the U.S. come from LME-registered warehouses, with LME copper inventories declining nearly 60% since mid-February [5]. - In early May, 71,591 tons of copper were shipped to the U.S. via bulk carriers, with increased shipments from Chile [10]. Emerging Markets - Unusual shipments of copper from Germany and Spain to the U.S. were recorded in March and April, with 10,000 tons and 4,500 tons respectively, indicating a shift in traditional supply sources [11]. - Analysts predict that more copper will be shipped to the U.S. in the latter half of May due to the ongoing price premium [12].