Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The economic data from January to February may achieve a "good start", with the focus on exports and prices. Consumption and fixed - asset investment readings may improve compared to the end of last year, but actual momentum needs verification in the peak season. Industrial growth is expected to be around 5.3%, and exports may remain strong. Social retail may see moderate growth. For the bond market, data is expected to improve compared to the end of last year, but it is difficult to exceed last year's high level, and the probability of exceeding expectations is low. In the short - term, concerns about inflation in the bond market may rise, and in the medium - term, macro - policy efforts are expected to be stable, and exports, service consumption, and local investment growth will support the economic target [3][50]. Summary by Directory 1 - 2 Month Economic Data Forecast: High Expected Export Growth and Slowing PPI Uptrend Inflation - It is expected that the year - on - year CPI in February may rise to around 1%, and the year - on - year PPI may rise to around - 1.1%. For CPI, food prices are weaker than the season due to vegetable drag, but non - food items are driven by oil prices, gold prices, and service consumption to rise above the season. The PPI is supported by rising oil prices, but input inflation pressure on non - ferrous metals has eased, and bulk commodity prices have fallen in the domestic off - production season [6][7][14]. Foreign Trade - The export growth rate from January to February is expected to be around 5.8%, and the year - on - year import may increase to about 5%. High - frequency data shows that the port container throughput has a high year - on - year growth rate, and the export growth rates of South Korea and Vietnam are also increasing, indicating strong global trade volume [18]. Industry - The industrial growth rate may rise slightly to 5.3%. The PMI in January and February was affected by the year - end economic rush and the Spring Festival holiday, but the production decline is in line with the seasonal characteristics, and strong export expectations support industrial production [20]. Investment - The fixed - asset investment may turn slightly positive to around 1.4% due to the initial - year caliber adjustment. The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to February is about 6%, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) is about 3.7%, and real estate investment is about - 14.1% [28]. Social Retail - Social retail sales are expected to moderately recover to around 2.0%. Automobile and petroleum consumption in January and February were weak, but the "trade - in" policy may support the growth of subsidized goods, although the boosting effect may be limited due to the high base [29][32]. Financial Data - The new credit in February may be around 1 trillion yuan, and the new social financing may be around 2.5 trillion yuan. The bill interest rate fluctuated upward, indicating that credit performance may be good. However, due to the Spring Festival and high - base factors, the growth of new social financing may face challenges. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 is expected to remain around 8.9% [34][41][43].