1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index Futures) [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerating decline in the investment sector, which still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. The monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing, and the positive factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, in the short term, it is difficult for the easing to materialize, and the bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices. In the short term, during the data vacuum period and with important meetings in December approaching, the market is waiting for policies. After the tax period this week, the capital market may become looser, which will support the bond market. Although the new regulations on fund sales fees bring short - term uncertainties, they do not affect the long - term allocation behavior of institutions. The negative impact of the central bank's bond - buying is unproven, and as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates continues and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment provides a good opportunity for layout [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the new regulations for public funds still exist, and the bond market continues to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities have risen comprehensively, with the long - end yields rising by about 1bp. As of 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250016 reported 1.845%, up 1.1bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The inter - bank funding market is loose and is expected to cross the month smoothly. The central bank made a net injection of 564 million yuan today. The inter - bank funding sentiment index is stable, and the funds are becoming looser. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuates narrowly around 1.31%, the 7 - day interest rate rises 2.8bp to 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuates narrowly around 1.61 - 1.63% [10]. - **Conclusion**: The positive factors for the bond market are accumulating, but in the short term, it is difficult for the easing to materialize. The bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices. After the tax period this week, the capital market may become looser, which will support the bond market. The impact of the new regulations on fund sales fees is short - term, and the negative impact of the central bank's bond - buying is unproven. As long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates continues and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment provides a good opportunity for layout [11][12]. 4.2 Industry News - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will organize a Chinese business delegation to visit the United States in early December. The delegation will involve various fields and will conduct extensive exchanges with the US business and political circles [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in the past two years to support "hard investment" projects, and has also promoted a series of "soft construction" measures [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to study and formulate cost recognition standards for disorderly price competition to maintain market price order [13]. - The Ministry of Commerce has released the 2025 "Country Trade Guide" to help enterprises explore diversified markets [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on November 27, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - **Money Market**: The report mentions the changes in inter - bank repurchase rates and SHIBOR, but specific data is mainly presented in the form of figures [27][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps, but specific data is mainly presented in the form of figures [37].

国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.01%报114.42，10年期主力合约跌0.06%报107.895，5年期 主力合约跌0.01%报105.77，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.39。 银行间主要利率债收益率窄幅波动，除超长端以外延续偏弱。30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下 行0.5BP报2.189%，10年期"25国开15"上行0.45BP报1.909%，同期限"25附息国债16"上行0.5BP报 1.839%。 新华财经北京11月27日电（王菁）债市周四（11月27日）延续走弱，国债期货主力多数收跌，银行间利 率债收益率小幅波动，中短端持续调整；公开市场单日净投放564亿元，资金利率表现分化。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.53%，报478.37点，成交金额495.37亿元。东时转债、博23转债、垒知转债、 恒锋转债、福新转债跌幅居前，分别跌7.29%、5.94%、5.22%、4.54%、3.65%。春23转债、能辉转债、 旗滨转债、浩瀚转债、宏柏转债涨幅居前，分别涨6.85%、3.55%、3.38%、3.12%、2.70%。 机构认为，机构跨年配置意愿仍存，但交易驱动带来的收益率下行幅 ...

智通财经11月27日讯（编辑 杨斌）今日，债市收益率继续上行，长端上行幅度较大，10年国债收益率 上行超1BP。信用债方面，非金信用债跌幅排行前五均为万科债。 具体来看，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.01%，10年期主力合约跌0.06%，5年期主力合 约跌0.01%，2年期主力合约涨0.01%。 | | | | | 交易所非金信用债跌幅TOP10 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | મદ શ્ર્લે | 名称 | 量新收盘价 | 液幅(%) | 成交额(万元) | 最新YTM | YTM灌跌BP | 债券评级 | | 149358 | 21万科02 | 36.6793 | -57.62 | 7212.07 | 97.7865 | 8643.09 | AAA | | 149568 | 21万科06 | 42.3333 | -46.37 | 1090.85 | 57.4542 | 4405.49 | AAA | | 149815 | 22万科02 | 40 | -42.74 | 533.24 | 113,7238 ...

事不过三：第一次是市场形成阶段，第二次是市场学习阶段，第三次是市场复制阶段。 ——笔记哥《应对》 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 26) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代吗 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1. 37 | -2 | 7 /// | 1.70 | - 11-29 | 63878.94 | -954. 09 | 86. 02 | | R007 | 1.52 | 0 | | 2.00 | 28 | 9690. 10 | 128.89 | 13.05 | | R014 | 1.53 | 0 | | 1.95 | 15 | 627.98 | -169.21 | 0. 85 | | R1H | 1.61 | 1 | n | 4.00 | 0 | 7.49 | -6.5 ...

今日深成指、创业板指双双低开高走，创业板指盘中一度涨超3%。沪深两市成交额1.78万亿，较上一个交易日缩量288亿。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超3500只个股下跌。板块方面，医药、零售、CPO等板块涨幅居前，军工装备、林业、游戏等板块跌幅居前。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.15%，深成指涨1.02%，创业板指涨2.14%。 首先，中国资产正处于重估的趋势中，短期回调不改长期向好趋势，后续市场预计仍将走出"慢牛"行情。 其次，外资投行也指出，尽管市场已经定价年内不再降息，但考虑到美国通胀表现温和、失业率上升，12月份降息并不能完全排除，从中长期看，美联储 降息周期并未终止。 面对这样的行情，不少投资者选择卖出，然而也有不少投资机构反其道而行，大量资金却借道股票ETF"越跌越买"！ Wind数据显示，上周沪深两市股票型ETF和跨境型ETF合计净流入701.21亿元，其中宽基指数ETF净流入359.31亿元，成为资金涌入的主要方向。 业内人士认为，市场大趋势没变，此时资金回流ETF说明很多资金是趁调整抄底。 机构多认为外部因素扰动是近期调整主要原因。 一是美国就业数据超预期但失业率却升至四年来最高，美联储12月降息 ...

3、地方政府专项债迎来投向政府投资基金的集中发行高峰。广东省、四川省、上海市将于11 月28日合计发行200亿元专项债券，分别注入广东省政府投资基金、成都市创业投资基金和上 海未来产业基金。叠加此前多地发行的超600亿元相关专项债，目前披露的投向政府投资基金 的地方政府专项债总规模将超800亿元。 | | 周三国债现券收益率集体走弱，到期收益率1-7Y上行0.1-2.40bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率 | | --- | --- | | | 上行1.50bp左右至1.84%、2.19%。国债期货集体走弱，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约分别下跌 | | | 0.05%、0.36%、0.86%。DR007加权利率回升至1.47%附近震荡。国内基本面端，10月社零 | | | 、工增较前值小幅回落，固投环比持续下降，失业率边际改善。10月社融、信贷同比小幅下 | | | 滑，政府债对社融的支撑持续减弱，企业、居民实际贷款需求仍然偏弱；M1、M2增速回落， | | | 存款活化程度放缓。10月出口同比增速转负，较去年同期下降1.1%。海外方面，美国9月非农 | | | 就业人口增11.9万人，大幅高于市场预期，但失 ...

【习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话】11 月 24 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电 话。习近平指出，上个月我们在韩国釜山成功举行会晤，达成很多重要共识，为中美关系这艘 巨轮稳健前行校准航向、注入动力，也向世界传递积极信号。釜山会晤以来，中美关系总体稳 定向好，受到两国和国际社会普遍欢迎，事实再次说明，中美"合则两利、斗则俱伤"是经过 实践反复验证的常识，中美"相互成就、共同繁荣"是看得见、摸得着的实景。双方要保持住 这个势头，坚持正确方向，秉持平等、尊重、互惠态度，拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，争取 更多积极进展，为中美关系打开新的合作空间，更好造福两国人民和世界人民。 【央行开展万亿元 MLF 操作，连续九个月超量续做】11 月 24 日，据央行消息，11 月 25 日， 央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 10000 亿元 MLF（中期借贷便利）操作， 期限为 1 年期。Wind 数据显示，11 月将有 9000 亿元 MLF 到期。这意味着 11 月 MLF 净投放为 1000 亿元，连续第九个月加量续做，符合市场预期。 【内容摘要】11 月 24 日，资金面宽松无虞，主要回购利率低位盘 ...

01 谜题尽解，尚待新局——2026年债市年度策略报告 16:00-17:00 核心看点： 2026年债市走向？货币政策宽松空间是否依然有限？面对基本面改善与微观体感疲软 的矛盾，债市将如何抉择？当资本利得惯性遭遇有限票息，是坚守久期还是转向票息策略？明年债 市是否真的只能"小幅看多"，且逆向布局优于顺势而为？ 嘉宾： 杜渐 丨浙商证券固收首席分析师 扫码预约 02 03 中信建投 | 科技团队联合展望 - 2026年度策略报告汇报会议之四 20:00-21:00 核心看点： 2026年科技投资的主线是否仍由AI引领？面对"无就业增长"的降息周期，机遇与挑战 如何分化？中国AI能否凭借其庞大的应用市场、世界级的模型层与自主硬件的快速迭代实现系统性 重估？在算力端，散热、PCB、电源等方向是否蕴含确定性机会？国产芯片会否迎来订单倾斜与集 中度提升？而AI应用商业化、计算机领域的国产化、量子科技及智驾等高景气赛道，又将是下一轮 行情的关键吗？ 嘉宾： 于芳博丨中信建投证券人工智能首席分析师 应瑛丨中信建投证券计算机首席分析师 崔世峰丨中信建投证券海外研究首席分析师 杨伟松丨中信建投证券科技前瞻首席分析师 扫码预约 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - In October, broad funds significantly increased their holdings of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs). The total bond custody scale increased by 1.31 trillion yuan month-on-month to 176.8 trillion yuan, with NCD custody scale up 7214 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly driven by broad funds. [2][10][77] - There is uncertainty about the Fed's rate cut in December. The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, higher than market expectations. The 9 - month non - farm data may be more accurate, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. As of November 23 noon Beijing time, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 71%. [2][23][77] - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, with bond yields likely to decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65% this year. [4][78] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - In October, the total bond custody scale increased by 1.31 trillion yuan month - on - month to 176.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from Shanghai Clearing House. NCDs were the main driver of the increase, with broad funds as the major buyers. [10] - On November 21, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China announced that savings bonds (electronic) will be included in the scope of personal pension products starting from June 2026. [23] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of November 16, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume decreased by 5.4% year - on - year. As of November 21, the 7 - day national movie box office revenue increased by 74.8% year - on - year. As of November 7, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 34.6% year - on - year. [25][30] 2.2 Transportation - Affected by Double 11, freight activity remained high. As of November 16, the weekly port container throughput increased by 3.1% year - on - year. As of November 21, the 7 - day average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The weekly postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.9% year - on - year, and the delivery volume increased by 5.8% year - on - year. The weekly railway freight volume and highway truck traffic volume increased by 5.3% year - on - year. [32][36] 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 19, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. As of November 20, the average asphalt operating rate decreased by 5.0 percentage points year - on - year. The soda ash operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points year - on - year. [38][43] 2.4 Real Estate - As of November 21, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 16.2% year - on - year. As of November 16, the number of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 41.3% year - on - year. [46][49] 2.5 Prices - As of November 21, most prices recovered month - on - month. The average pork wholesale price decreased by 24.4% year - on - year but increased by 1.3% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of northern port thermal coal decreased by 0.7% year - on - year but increased by 11.9% compared to 4 weeks ago. [50] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 21, short - term rates mostly declined. Treasury yields mostly increased, with the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields at 1.40%/1.59%/1.82%/2.16% respectively, up 0.9BP/0.2BP/1.0BP compared to November 14 (except for the 1 - year, which decreased by 0.5BP). The US, Japanese, British, and German 10 - year Treasury yields were 4.06%, 1.78%, 4.55%, and 2.76% respectively, down 8BP/up 8BP/down 2BP/down 3BP compared to November 14. The US dollar - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate increased by 50/96 pips compared to November 14. [58][60][69] 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first declining, then rising, and then declining. As of November 21, the estimated average duration was about 4.9 years, and the median was about 4.4 years, down 0.02/up 0.18 years compared to November 14. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend, and has declined this week. The estimated average duration was about 2.1 years, and the median was about 2.0 years, down 0.07 years compared to November 14. [73][74] 5. Investment Suggestions - The report is bullish on the bond market. Due to domestic economic pressure, falling housing prices, and high short - term interest rates, there is a significant need to cut policy rates. With the Fed's rate - cut cycle, policy rates may be cut by 20BP in the next six months. The report predicts that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury yield to 1.9%, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks to 1.9%. [4][78]

| | 11/25 待定 美国9月PPI | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 11/26 21:30 美国第三季度GDP修正值、10月份个人收入、支出及PCE价格指数 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 国债期货日报 2025/11/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.505 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 79246 | -23755↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.890 | 0.03% TF主力成交量 | 46495 | -17953↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.460 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | 23207 | -6065↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 115.760 | 0.15% TL主 ...