CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 资金面延续宽松，债市维持震荡 国债周报 2026/02/28 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 ◆ 经济及政策：基本面而言，1月受春节错位因素影响，CPI同比低于预期，而PPI同比环比均有所改善。1月社融增速8.2%，前值8.3%；M2增速 9.0%，前值8.5%；M1增速4.9%，前值3.8%。1月份金融数据显示，经济修复的内生动力仍不稳固，信贷开门红力度偏弱，结构上短期贷款同 比多增，而企业贷款和居民中长贷偏弱。海外方面，美国流动性有所改善，市场对美联储降息时点预期推迟到年中。 1、上海市住房城乡建设管理委等五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，自2026年2月26日起施行。《通知》明确进 一步调减住房限购政策。缩短非沪籍居民购买外环内住 ...

统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 本周（2 月 15 日至 2 月 28 日），国金证券固收基本面监测体系中,共有 45 个高频指标更新。其中我们对绝对值指标计 算当月同比，对百分比指标计算月均值，然后针对债市做定性判断。结果显示：总体上，"利好"与"利空"指标个 数分别为 18 个与 27 个。其中，"利好"主要体现在粗钢产量、多数行业开工率、商品房成交面积、消费(轻纺成交)、 出行（市内）、工业品价格等方面，"利空"主要体现在耗煤、商品房成交价格&土地成交量价、消费（集装箱吞吐量、 快递、失业金搜索指数、票房）、出行（远距离）、出口、旅游消费价格、及多数农产品价格等方面。 本周（2 月 15 日至 2 月 28 日），利率十大同步指标释放的信号中，"利好"和"利空"各自占比 5/10；较上周的变化 有：企业中长贷余额增速、美元指数发出"利好"信号。 具体地：①企业中长贷余额增速为 7.4%，低于前值 7.9%，属性"利好"；②建材综合指数为 114.0，低于前值 115.3， 属性"利好"；③BCI：企业招工前瞻指数为 56.3%，高于前值 55.8%，属性"利空"；④失业金领取 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that future price trends may diverge from market expectations, with the CPI for 2026 likely remaining in positive territory due to tailwind factors, but without exceeding expectations [1] - The tailwind factors contributing positively include the strong performance of gold in the second half of 2025 and the inclusion of goods at original prices in the CPI after national subsidies, leading to an inflated CPI [1] - Current consumer sentiment is mixed, making it difficult to conclude a rebound in domestic demand, which may further support the bond market throughout the year [1] Group 2 - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 10-year government bond index, selecting bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 to 10 years listed on the exchange, maintaining a constant duration [1] - Historical performance shows that since its inception, the Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) has consistently achieved new net asset value highs, with a one-year return of 0.4%, a three-year return of 14.23%, a five-year return of 23.19%, and a cumulative return of 36.31% since inception as of the end of 2025 [1] - Notably, the Ten-Year Treasury ETF has maintained positive returns every year since its establishment, spanning eight complete calendar years from 2018 to 2025, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [1]

新华财经北京2月24日电回顾春节前最后一个交易周（2026年2月9日至2月14日），央行加大资金投放力度，货币政策报告也传递出支持 性态度，资金面保持平稳，机构持债过节意愿较强，收益率整体下行，10年期国债收益率跌破1.80%后一路下触至1.7675%方在止盈盘推 动下有所止步。海外市场长假期间风云涌动，地缘政治和关税不确定性阴霾推动避险资产走强。 节后公开市场将迎来单周超27000亿元资金到期，预计央行仍将综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF等政策工具，持续注入中期流动性。在重 要会议时点前后，债市季节性配置力度有望增加，机构对债市看法仍偏乐观。 行情回顾 2026年2月14日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较2月6日分别变 动-0.62BP、-0.55BP、-0.67BP、-1.86BP、-1.44BP、-2.03BP、-0.5BP、-0.45BP。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)* | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 2月6日 | 2月14日 | 变云(BP) | | 0 | 1.092 | 1.05 ...

新华财经北京2月24日电（王菁）随着春节假期结束，债券市场正式步入丙午马年的交易时段。尽管节 前在央行流动性呵护下，10年期国债收益率一度下破1.8%的关键点位，但节后市场正面临超2.7万亿元 公开市场到期、税期与跨月重叠等多重因素的考验。 超2.7万亿资金回笼压境，流动性能否平稳"过关"？ 春节后首个交易周，市场即将迎来流动性的"压力测试"。多位市场分析人士指出，本周公开市场到期规 模创下近年新高，叠加税期走款等因素，资金面难免出现波澜。 近日，新华财经综合多家机构观点后发现，虽然节后资金面难免承压，但投资者对债市后市并不悲 观，"逢调整布局"、"继续保持多头思维"成为主流策略。 华西证券研究所首席经济学家刘郁测算，2月24日至28日，央行公开市场操作合计到期27024亿元，为 2019年以来节后首周到期规模的最高点。其中，仅节后前两个交易日的到期规模就分别高达14524亿元 和8500亿元。具体来看，7天逆回购到期8524亿元，14天逆回购到期14000亿元；MLF到期3000亿元； 国库定存到期1500亿元。 除了公开市场到期的"洪峰"，税期与跨月的重叠也是扰动因素之一。受春节假期影响，2月税期申报截 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 节后债市应对指南 （一）2 月利率破位下行，三股推力 2 月以来，债市延续强势行情，10 年国债收益率成功突破 1.80%阻力位，由 1.81%下行至 1.78%。期间交易 型品种表现更为突出，5 年、30 年国债收益率均下行 4bp 至 1.54%、2.25%，5 年、7 年、10 年国开债收益率分 别下行 5bp、6bp、4bp 至 1.74%、1.86%、1.95%，3 年、5 年二级资本债收益率降幅更是达到 5bp、8bp。 长端利率超预期突破箱体的背后，主要有三股推力。首先是配置盘供需错位叙事或仍在延续。尽管 2 月政府 债发行速度较 1 月边际提升，单月净供给规模由 1.18 万亿元提升至 1.38 万亿元，但银行负债或始终处于相对充裕 的状态。2025 年 12 月与 2026 年 1 月，大型银行境内存款增幅分别为 1.59、4.17 万亿元，远超过去五年同期季 节性均值 0.03、2.75 万亿元；中小型银行增幅分别为 1.21、2.44 万亿元，同样位于历史同期高位水平。叠加 ...

债 券 研 春节期间不可错过的事情 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 国内篇 本报告导读： 经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升带来的扰 动。 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性超预期收紧；经济修复大幅加速；债券供给放量。 | | | | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 央行视角下的货币财政协同与存款搬 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank has increased the net injection of reverse repos in February by 300 billion yuan, leading to improved liquidity in the banking system [3] - The central bank will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on February 13, with a term of 6 months, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [3] - The major bond market indices have shown a downward trend in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 1.40 basis points to 1.7720% [10] Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rates - The onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar both broke the 6.9 mark, reaching a new high before the Spring Festival, with the central bank's midpoint rate set at 6.9457 yuan per dollar [4] - Analysts attribute the RMB's strength to multiple factors, including improved external conditions, a weaker dollar, and increased demand for currency conversion by enterprises [4] Group 3: Corporate News and Credit Events - Kaisa Group announced it would be unable to repay the principal of 400 million USD on its KWGPRO bond due on February 13, 2026 [14] - Moody's confirmed Meituan's issuer rating at "Baa1," changing the outlook from "stable" to "negative" [14] - Jin Hong Holdings reported a debt default of 76 million yuan by its subsidiary [14] Group 4: Real Estate and Housing Market - In the US, January existing home sales saw the largest decline in nearly four years, dropping 8.4% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 3.91 million units, below expectations [5] - The median home price in January increased by 0.9% year-over-year to 396,800 USD, while inventory rose by 3.4% to 1.22 million units [5] Group 5: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.77% to 62.84 USD per barrel, and Brent crude down 2.71% to 67.52 USD per barrel [6] - COMEX gold futures decreased by 3.06% to 1,942.50 USD per ounce, while NYMEX natural gas prices fell by 0.25% to 3.226 USD per million British thermal units [6] Group 6: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a warming trend, with the central bank's liquidity support leading to a decrease in yields across various maturities [10] - No new government or policy bank bonds were issued on February 12 [12] - The credit bond market experienced significant price fluctuations, with some bonds deviating over 10% from their previous prices [13]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown a pattern of "narrow yield fluctuations, long-end leading gains, and synchronized strength in futures and spot markets" since February, supported by a reasonably ample liquidity environment and weak financing demand during the production off-season [1] - The central bank's recent actions, including a net injection of 100 billion yuan through a three-month reverse repurchase agreement and the resumption of 14-day reverse repos, have stabilized liquidity in the interbank market, providing support for the bond market [1] - The issuance of government bonds has surged in early February, while the equity market has stabilized, limiting the downward space for yields and making it difficult for the bond market to achieve a trend breakthrough [1] Group 2 - The central bank's monetary policy report indicates that the effects of the moderately accommodative monetary policy implemented in 2025 are gradually becoming evident, with significant impacts on stabilizing economic growth and financial market operations [2] - The report emphasizes the continuation of a supportive monetary policy stance, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, while indicating a low probability of short-term reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions [2] - The central bank is expected to maintain a "protective" policy tone, avoiding abrupt changes, which will help the bond market maintain a strong oscillating pattern and prevent large fluctuations [3] Group 3 - Consumer prices (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in January, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a moderate rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, suggesting a bottoming out and recovery in industrial product prices [4] Group 4 - The bond market has entered a recovery phase due to multiple factors, but the recent drop in the 10-year government bond yield below 1.8% and the cooling of short-term interest rate cut expectations indicate insufficient driving forces for further declines, leading to a lack of momentum for a trend breakthrough [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the bond market in China, with a long-term bullish outlook on the bond market despite short-term fluctuations [1][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Long-term Bullish Outlook**: The company maintains a long-term bullish view on the bond market, with expectations of upward trends despite potential short-term volatility, particularly after the Spring Festival [1][10]. 2. **High Real Interest Rates**: China's real interest rates, measured by the 10-year government bond yield relative to CPI, remain high at approximately 1.1168, which is conducive to economic growth and necessitates a low-interest environment [2][4]. 3. **International Comparisons**: Historical data from developed economies shows that exiting low-interest environments takes considerable time, suggesting that China may also require a prolonged period to stabilize its interest rates [3][4]. 4. **Government Debt Levels**: The increasing scale of government debt, projected to rise to over 70 trillion for central government bonds and 80 trillion for local government bonds by 2026, indicates significant fiscal pressure that necessitates a low-interest environment [4][5]. 5. **Banking Sector Stability**: The banking sector's net interest margin has been declining, from approximately 2.1% in 2020 to 1.42% in 2025, which impacts profitability and necessitates a stable interest rate environment to maintain financial stability [6][7]. 6. **Insurance Sector Growth**: The insurance sector has seen rapid growth, with new premium income reaching 212.6 billion in January 2026, a 27.6% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand for bonds from non-bank financial institutions [8][9]. 7. **Bond Market Demand**: There is a significant demand for bonds from various sectors, including insurance, as large amounts of fixed deposits are maturing and being converted into insurance products and other financial instruments [9][10]. 8. **Interest Rate Projections**: The 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain within the range of 1.7% to 1.9%, with a potential decline to 1.6% if interest rates are cut further [10][11]. 9. **Investment Strategies**: The company recommends focusing on high liquidity government bonds and credit bonds, with an emphasis on safety and yield, particularly in the context of expected low interest rates and potential market volatility [22][23]. Additional Important Content - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination**: The need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to support domestic demand is emphasized, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs [15][16]. - **Asset Management Products**: The total assets of asset management products have reached 120 trillion, reflecting a growing trend in the financial market that requires careful monitoring [17][18]. - **Regional Investment Insights**: Specific regions such as Beijing and Guangxi are highlighted for their stable investment opportunities, with a focus on local government bonds and enterprises that are financially sound [26][29]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic outlook presented during the conference call, focusing on the bond market dynamics, fiscal pressures, and investment strategies in the context of China's economic landscape.