18 Mar 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK) Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK) 2025 profit +33% YoY; surprising dividend Chuangxin's net profit in 2025 grew 33% YoY to RMB2.73bn, which is 5% above our expectations but 2% below Bloomberg consensus. Chuangxin proposed a final dividend of HK$0.77/shr, equivalent to ~54% payout, which is higher than our expectation. Meanwhile, Chuangxin announced two connected transactions, including (1) the acquisi ...

Core Insights - LATAM Airlines Group reported strong financial performance in Q4 2025, with total revenue reaching nearly $4.0 billion, a 16.3% increase year-over-year, driven by a 20.3% rise in passenger revenue despite a 9.6% decline in cargo revenue [2][6] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $1.1 billion, reflecting a 30.4% increase, while net income reached $484 million, up 78.1% [6] - For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA was approximately $4.1 billion, with net income around $1.5 billion, translating to earnings per ADS of $4.95, a 50% growth compared to 2024 [12] Cost Management - Unit costs excluding fuel increased, with passenger CASC ex-fuel at $0.0004, attributed to local currency appreciation and non-recurring costs in wages and benefits [1] - Passenger RASC rose 11.7%, while passenger unit costs ex-fuel increased by 7.9%, indicating LATAM's ability to maintain its value proposition [6] Capacity and Demand - LATAM's capacity increased by nearly 8% in Q4, with a load factor around 85%, and management noted strong and stable demand across most business areas [7] - In Brazil, domestic capacity increased by 12%, with passenger RASC up 14% in U.S. dollars [8] Customer Experience and Loyalty - LATAM Pass loyalty program reached nearly 54 million members, accounting for about 60% of passenger revenue, with a record Net Promoter Score (NPS) of 54 points [9][11] - Premium revenue represented 23% of passenger revenue and grew faster than overall passenger revenue, with premium revenue increasing by 14% year-over-year [10] 2026 Outlook - Management provided guidance for 2026, expecting capacity growth of 8-10% and an adjusted operating margin of 15-17%, with anticipated adjusted leveraged free cash flow exceeding $1.7 billion [5][18] - The company plans to invest approximately $1.7 billion in CapEx and expects to receive 41 aircraft deliveries, including the first 12 Embraer E2s [20] Liquidity and Debt Management - Year-end liquidity reached $3.7 billion, representing 25.7% of the last 12 months' revenue, with adjusted net leverage at 1.5x [15] - Net debt was reported at $5.9 billion, slightly above prior guidance, primarily due to a $400 million dividend distribution [16]

Core Insights - The Caribbean cruise market is experiencing a significant supply shock, with industry-wide capacity expected to increase sharply by 14% in 2026, leading to a two-year increase of approximately 27% [1][2] - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) aims to maintain pricing and yield despite the rising capacity, forecasting a normalized yield growth of around 3% in 2026 [2][5] Company Strategy - Carnival emphasizes revenue optimization over simply filling berths, willing to sacrifice marginal occupancy to preserve price integrity, a shift from the industry's historical discounting practices [3] - The company benefits from strong booking visibility, with about two-thirds of 2026 capacity already sold at historically high prices, and customer deposits ending 2025 at a record level [2][11] Competitive Landscape - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is also facing the Caribbean capacity surge, supported by new ships and an expanding private-destination portfolio, but its higher capacity growth may pressure pricing discipline if demand softens [6][7] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) has a smaller fleet and relies more on contemporary and premium brands, making it more vulnerable to promotional activity in a crowded market [8] Financial Performance - CCL's shares have increased by 18.7% over the past three months, outperforming the industry's rise of 12.8% [9] - CCL trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.34X, below the industry average of 17.64X, indicating potential valuation upside [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCL's 2026 sales and earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 4.6% and 12.9%, respectively [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copa Holdings achieved a net profit of $173 million, or $4.20 per share, representing an 18.7% increase year-over-year [10] - Operating income reached $212 million, with an operating margin of 23.2%, up 2.9 percentage points year-over-year [10] - Unit cost (CASM) decreased by 2.7% to $0.085, while CASM excluding fuel decreased by 0.8% to $0.056 [10][11] - Cash and investments totaled $1.3 billion, representing 38% of the last 12-month revenues [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Capacity in Available Seat Miles (ASMs) increased by 5.8% compared to Q3 2024 [5] - Load factor increased by 1.8 percentage points to 88% [5] - Passenger yields decreased by 2.6% year-over-year [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copa Airlines maintained an on-time performance of 89.7% and a flight completion factor of 99.8% [6] - The company started flights to new destinations in Argentina and plans to expand services to Mexico and the Dominican Republic [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on maintaining a strong balance sheet, low unit costs, and a passenger-friendly product [9] - Future capacity growth is projected at approximately 8% for 2025, with expectations of 11%-13% for 2026 [12] - The company plans to add eight more 737 MAX 8s in 2026, ending the year with a total fleet of 132 aircraft [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in future performance driven by healthy demand in the region and a strong business model [9] - The company noted that demand remains healthy despite macroeconomic volatility in Latin America [44] - Management highlighted that the competitive environment remains challenging but emphasized their competitive advantages [55] Other Important Information - The company will make its fourth dividend payment of $1.61 per share on December 15th [11] - An investor day is scheduled for December 11th at the New York Stock Exchange [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on loyalty program and credit card renewal - Management confirmed a renewal of the Visa agreement and noted over 30% growth year-over-year in the loyalty program [16][17] Question: Clarification on growth projections for 2025 - Management indicated that half of the projected growth comes from backloaded aircraft, with the remainder from adding frequencies and new destinations [18] Question: Insights on unit revenue trends with increased growth - Management acknowledged that most growth comes from high-demand routes, suggesting less impact on unit revenues [25] Question: Competitive landscape and potential IPOs in the region - Management stated that competition has been a constant factor and emphasized their focus on maintaining competitive advantages [55][56] Question: Update on hedging policy - Management confirmed no changes to the hedging strategy, stating satisfaction with the current approach [72] Question: Densification plan status - Management reported that half of the planned densification has been completed, with the remainder expected in 2026 [77]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copa Holdings achieved a net profit of $173 million, or $4.20 per share, representing an 18.7% increase year-over-year compared to $146 million, or $3.50 per share in Q3 2024 [9] - Operating income reached $212 million, a 22.2% increase year-over-year, with an operating margin of 23.2%, up 2.9 percentage points from the previous year [9][10] - Unit cost (CASM) decreased by 2.7% year-over-year to $0.085, while CASM excluding fuel decreased by 0.8% to $0.056 [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Capacity in Available Seat Miles (ASMs) increased by 5.8% compared to Q3 2024, with a load factor increase of 1.8 percentage points to 88% [4] - Passenger yields decreased by 2.6% year-over-year, while unit revenues (RASM) increased by 1% to 11.1 cents [4][5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copa Airlines maintained an on-time performance of 89.7% and a flight completion factor of 99.8%, positioning itself among the best in the industry [5] - The company started flights to new destinations in Argentina and plans to expand services to Mexico and the Dominican Republic [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on maintaining a strong balance sheet, low unit costs, and a passenger-friendly product, which are seen as pillars for consistent growth and profitability [7] - Copa Holdings anticipates adding eight more 737 MAX 8 aircraft in 2026, projecting a total fleet of 132 aircraft by the end of that year [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in future performance, driven by healthy demand in the region and a strong business model [7] - The company reaffirmed its guidance for 2025, narrowing the operating margin range to 22%-23% and projecting full-year capacity growth of approximately 8% [11] Other Important Information - The company will make its fourth dividend payment of the year of $1.61 per share on December 15th to shareholders of record as of December 1st [10] - The investor day is scheduled for December 11th at the New York Stock Exchange [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on Copa's credit card renewal and loyalty program - Management noted a renewal of the Visa agreement during Q3, contributing to a 30% year-over-year growth in the loyalty program [14][16] Question: Clarification on growth projections for 2025 - Half of the projected 11%-13% ASM growth for 2025 is attributed to the full-year effect of backloaded aircraft, with the remainder coming from increased frequencies and new destinations [17] Question: Insights on unit revenue trends with increased growth - Management indicated that most growth comes from high-demand routes, suggesting less impact on unit revenues than typically expected with double-digit ASM growth [20] Question: Update on Copa's hedging policy - Management confirmed that there are no plans to change the current hedging strategy, which has been effective for the company [72] Question: Update on the densification plan - Approximately half of the planned densification has been completed, with the remaining expected to be done in 2026 [76]