Summary of J.P. Morgan's China Metals Activity Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the metals industry in China, specifically tracking inventory trends for steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, and zinc as of the week ended July 18, 2025 [1][11]. Key Insights 1. **Copper Inventory Trends** - China typically experiences significant destocking of copper inventories from now until September. However, recent data shows a slowing pace of inventory drawdowns, with copper inventories increasing by 3,000 tons last week [1][12]. - The five-year average indicates a normal destocking of approximately 200,000 tons of copper during this period [1][12]. 2. **Steel Mill Margins** - There has been a notable improvement in China steel mill margins over the last three weeks, leading to a ~10% increase in iron ore prices to $102 per ton. Average hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel mill margins have returned to profitability for the first time since early 2023 [2][9]. - Rebar margins are close to breakeven, marking the strongest profitability since early 2023 [2][9]. 3. **Iron Ore Shipments and Production** - Iron ore shipments to China from Australia and Brazil have shown mixed results, with Australian shipments down by 4.3% week-over-week but up 8.2% year-over-year. Brazilian shipments increased by 23.9% week-over-week but decreased by 11.3% year-over-year [4][2]. - Total iron ore arrivals in China increased by 13.7% week-over-week, indicating a robust demand [4][2]. 4. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Copper** - A potential 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports, effective August 1, could reduce U.S. demand by approximately 4%, translating to a 0.2% decline in global copper demand [3][12]. - The U.S. exports around 540,000 to 580,000 tons of copper scrap annually, which could help mitigate a primary deficit of 700,000 to 800,000 tons per annum, although increased recycling capacity may take 2-3 years [3][12]. 5. **Physical Demand Indicators** - Despite recent increases in copper, aluminum, and zinc inventories, overall inventories remain at their lowest levels in over five years for this time of year, indicating tight physical markets [12][13]. - China's copper premium has risen by 70% in the last two weeks, reaching approximately $50 per ton, although it remains significantly below the year-to-date high of $103 per ton [12][13]. Additional Observations - The report highlights that the next ten weeks will be critical for assessing the health of Chinese physical copper consumers, as historical trends suggest a shift towards improved demand during this period [12][13]. - The report also includes detailed tables and figures illustrating inventory levels, shipment data, and price forecasts for various metals, providing a comprehensive view of the current market dynamics [4][9][34]. Conclusion - The J.P. Morgan report provides valuable insights into the current state of the metals industry in China, highlighting trends in inventory, pricing, and the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on copper demand. The data suggests a complex interplay of supply and demand factors that investors should monitor closely.

July 18, 2025 03:00 PM GMT metal&ROCK | Europe Cu and Al: Tracking Tariffs & Trade Flows With US aluminium tariffs in place and copper to come shortly, we look at how US trade flows are evolving. US copper scrap exports continue, while aluminium scrap imports are rising, and imports of refined metal for both metals are slowing down. Questions on tariff exemptions remain. Key Takeaways Aluminium: US primary imports are down 15% from 2024 levels in April and May, with Canadian volumes taking most of the hit a ...

Aluminium output hits a new monthly high in May, encouraged by elevated smelter margins and robust demand: Aluminium output in May rose c5% y-o-y to 3.83mt and y-t-d is up 4%, supported by the improved smelter margin given the substantial decline in raw material prices y-t-d, Alumina (-32%) and thermal coal (-20%). China aluminium inventory dropped c400kt over the past three months despite the robust supply, indicating strong downstream demand. Aluminium industry fundamentals look solid backed by the 45mt p ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the aluminium market, with expectations of a surplus extending through 2027, leading to lower price forecasts [8][12][20]. Core Insights - The global aluminium demand forecast for 2025 has been raised from 1.1% y/y to 1.8% y/y due to less severe impacts from the trade war, but forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain largely unchanged [3][8]. - Indonesian aluminium production is expected to grow faster than previously anticipated, contributing to a market surplus of 1 million tonnes in 2026, the largest since 2020 [8][12][13]. - Cost deflation from lower alumina and energy prices is expected to exert downward pressure on aluminium prices, with forecasts indicating a decline to $2,100/t in early 2026 [8][27][28]. Summary by Sections Demand Forecast - The report has adjusted the global aluminium demand forecast for 2026 and 2027 downwards due to reduced solar demand, resulting in a decrease of 0.3/0.6% in total aluminium demand [3][20]. - The solar sector's demand for aluminium is expected to decline significantly due to new policies affecting solar installations in China [20][24]. Supply Outlook - The supply forecast for Indonesia has been upgraded, with three new smelters expected to be operational by mid-2026, increasing the supply forecast by 750/550kt in 2026/2027 [12][13][14]. - Indonesia is projected to account for 9% of ex-China aluminium production by 2030, up from 2% in 2024 [13]. Price Forecast - The aluminium price is expected to fall to a low of $2,100/t in early 2026, with a trading range of $2,150-2,550/t anticipated in subsequent years [8][27]. - Average price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been lowered to $2,230/t and $2,500/t, respectively, reflecting a more bearish outlook [8][35].

Aluminium Premiums: Determining Fair Value; Hedge European Premium Upside We have developed an anchor and spread methodology to determine fair value for aluminium premiums, the price paid over the LME price to take physical delivery of metal. The anchor is set by identifying the premium that the buyer of last resort – an LME warehouse in Asia – will pay. We then build up the spread between this premium and the delivered aluminium premiums in the US and Europe. By our estimates premiums are trading close to ...