Capital Markets 2026 Outlook Summary Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Capital Markets industry, specifically analyzing the performance and outlook for various segments including Alternative Asset Managers, Traditional Asset Managers, Brokers, Trust Banks, and Exchanges [2][8]. Key Themes and Insights Theme 1: Capital Markets Recovery - A significant recovery in Capital Markets is anticipated, particularly in M&A and Equity Capital Markets, with global announced M&A volumes increasing over 40% year-on-year in 2025 [28]. - IPO activity has also seen a meaningful re-acceleration, although both M&A and IPO volumes remain below cyclical averages, indicating potential for further growth [28][39]. - Companies such as CG, BX, TPG, and KKR are highlighted for their substantial earnings exposure to Capital Markets-sensitive revenues, estimated at 30%-40% of total revenues [29]. Theme 2: Interest Rates and Asset Growth - The Federal Reserve's funds rate is projected to decline to 3% by the end of 2026, with a steepening yield curve expected [6]. - Wealth Brokers and Trust Banks are anticipated to experience cash revenue and net interest income (NII) growth in 2026, driven by increased balances and lower asset sensitivity compared to previous cycles [6][15]. - Specific firms like RJF and SCHW are expected to outperform consensus estimates, with RJF projected to grow by 2% in 2026 and 7% in 2027 [6]. Theme 3: Alternative Managers' Growth - Alternative Asset Managers are expected to see management fee growth accelerate to a 16% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in 2026-2027, up from 11% in 2023-2025 [6][11]. - Growth is anticipated to broaden beyond Credit, with Private Equity and Real Estate showing signs of recovery, alongside continued strength in Infrastructure and AI sectors [6]. Theme 4: Traditional Managers' Outlook - Traditional Asset Managers are expected to see long-term organic growth accelerate to over 1% in 2026, with firms like AMG and BLK leading in organic base fee growth [7]. - Growth drivers include increased flows into Fixed Income, Active ETFs, and leveraging distribution capabilities for Private Markets strategies [7]. Theme 5: Exchange Volume Challenges - Exchanges are facing tough year-on-year volume comparisons, particularly in 2026, following record volumes in 2025 [7]. - However, sectors such as Energy and Equities are expected to deliver meaningful volume growth, supported by retail investor participation and recovery in IPO markets [7][14]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for Trust Banks, with firms like BK and STT expected to benefit from accelerating deposit growth and favorable NII outlooks [15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expense management and capital returns in driving EPS growth across various segments [15][12]. - Despite a challenging environment, select areas within the Capital Markets are expected to see structural growth, particularly in newer product areas like event contracts and prediction markets [16]. Conclusion - The Capital Markets industry is poised for a recovery driven by improving financial conditions, increased M&A and IPO activity, and growth in alternative and traditional asset management sectors. The outlook remains broadly constructive, with specific firms identified as key beneficiaries of these trends [2][8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **capital markets** and **M&A (mergers and acquisitions)** landscape in North America for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting trends and expectations for the year ahead [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Current Market Trends**: The first quarter of 2025 has seen light trends in deal-making, attributed to CEOs needing time to adapt to rapid changes from the Trump Administration. This period is characterized as peak uncertainty, with completed or pending deals covering **41%** of the 2025 M&A revenue forecast and **50%** of consensus estimates [1][5][6]. - **Anticipated Recovery**: A significant pickup in deal-making activity is expected starting in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a supportive environment for M&A, including a shift in antitrust enforcement and a substantial amount of dry powder (approximately **$4 trillion**) from sponsors needing deployment [5][6]. - **M&A Activity Metrics**: The M&A advisory revenue forecast for 2025 is projected at **$14.845 billion**, with major banks like Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM) expected to contribute significantly to this figure [2][10]. - **Historical Context**: Current M&A activity is running **44%** below the annual averages from 1996-2004, indicating potential for recovery as the market normalizes [6][10]. Regulatory Environment - **FTC Guidelines**: The continuation of the 2023 merger guidelines is not seen as a major obstacle for deal-making. The new FTC Chair, Ferguson, is expected to interpret guidelines in a way that promotes stability and transparency, which is favorable for M&A activity [7][9]. - **Market Sentiment**: The previous unpredictable interpretations of guidelines under former FTC Chair Khan had weighed on M&A announcements. The current sentiment is more optimistic, with expectations for increased clarity on regulatory matters [7][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Banking Volumes**: Investment banking volumes are currently running **36%** below average for announced M&A and **44%** below for completed M&A, suggesting significant upside potential as activity returns to historical norms [10][16]. - **Recent Deal Activity**: A notable recent deal includes the **$23 billion** CK Hutchison/BlackRock port deal, signaling confidence among investors to engage in large transactions [5][6]. - **Market Performance**: The S&P 500 Banks index has shown a **35.5%** increase year-over-year, reflecting a positive trend in the banking sector despite recent volatility [25]. Conclusion - The capital markets are at a pivotal point, with expectations for a rebound in M&A activity as regulatory clarity improves and economic conditions stabilize. The current metrics indicate a strong potential for growth in investment banking activities throughout 2025 and beyond.