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Deutsche Bank CFO on Earnings, Trade Uncertainty, European Capital Markets Union
Bloomberg Television· 2025-07-24 06:18
Financial Performance & Strategy - Revenue momentum is continuing, delivering against ratio targets set for the year [2] - FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities) was up 11%, beating most estimates [5] - The company is pleased to be in a position to increment the originally announced buyback and execute throughout the year, with a base case to deliver on that buyback by the end of the year [9] - The company is managing the company to shareholder value, impacting business decisions, client selection, product pricing, and balance sheet usage [30] Market Dynamics & Outlook - Corporate activity has been chilled by uncertainties around trade negotiations [3] - Corporate finance wallet is down year-on-year, reflecting relative weakness in that area [4] - FX (Foreign Exchange) was very strong, the strongest point in macro generally [6] - There's good activity and performance at the start of the third quarter in both the FICC business and origination advisory business, giving confidence about the second half [8] - Uncertainty around tariffs is holding back corporate investment decisions [14] - There is an investment wave in Europe coming, particularly in defense infrastructure spending, sustainability, and digitalization [15] - Institutional clients are showing interest in reallocating investments to Europe, potentially reducing exposure to the United States [18] - Independence of central banks gives markets confidence in monetary policy [21] Defense Sector - The company is well-positioned to take advantage of growth in the defense sector, with established relationships and cross-industry teams [23][24] - Europe needs a smaller number of defense providers and platforms to concentrate its defense spending [25] German Fiscal Policy - The company expects to be involved in the issuance of debt, holding accounts, financing corporations, supporting households, and supporting investors related to the German government's debt break [33][34]
BNP Paribas(BNPQY) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-24 20:06
Financial Data and Key Indicator Changes - The company's revenues increased by 3.8% in Q1 2025, with operating divisions up 6.1%, aligning with the trajectory set for 2026 [8][10] - Net profit decreased by 4.9%, attributed to higher exceptional items in the previous year and lower contributions from the Corporate Center this quarter [12] - The cost of risk remained moderate at 33 basis points, slightly up from the previous year but still below the guidance of 40 basis points [11][43] - Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio decreased by 50 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 12.4%, stable compared to January [13][45] Business Line Data and Key Indicator Changes - Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) reported a record revenue growth of 12.5%, driven by a 17.3% increase in Global Markets [9][26] - Commercial Banking and Personal Banking Services (CPBS) grew by 1.2%, with Eurozone commercial banks up 0.6% year-on-year [10][28] - Investment Solutions (IPS) saw a strong growth of 6.6%, particularly in Wealth Management and Insurance [10][37] Market Data and Key Indicator Changes - Eurozone commercial banks are expected to benefit from a normalization of the yield curve, with a projected rebound in net interest income (NII) in the second half of the year [18][30] - The performance in Turkey and Poland contributed to a 19% revenue increase in the Euromed region [10][32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a return on tangible equity of 11.5% in 2025 and 12% in 2026, targeting over 7% group net income growth CAGR [15][16] - A new strategic plan for CPBS aims to lift the return on notional equity to a minimum of 17% by 2028 [17] - The company plans to continue efficiency efforts with an additional €600 million in cost savings for 2025 and 2026 [19][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged elevated uncertainties in the market but emphasized readiness to support clients and monitor risks closely [5][6] - The company remains confident in achieving a CAGR revenue growth of over 5% by 2026, supported by increased investment spending in Europe [20][22] Other Important Information - The company has received approval for a €1 billion share buyback program, set to launch in the second quarter [14] - The acquisition of AXA IM is expected to close in early July, which will significantly enhance the growth potential of the IPS division [38][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: On the Capital Markets Union and its impact on profitability - Management acknowledged the challenges but noted a tangible approach from the EU to facilitate capital flow, expecting progress by 2028 to 2030 [62][63] Question: On the ECB's treatment of the AXA deal - Management clarified that discussions with the ECB are ongoing regarding the classification of the AXA deal as insurance to insurance, which will influence capital treatment [65][66] Question: On Eurozone revenue momentum and NII expectations - Management expects stabilization in deposit mix and a rebound in NII, driven by repricing and redeployment of excess deposits [74][78] Question: On market volatility and its impact on business - Management noted increased trading volumes and volatility in early April, but corporate engagement remained cautious [84][85] Question: On cost expectations related to acquisitions - Management indicated that it is too early to quantify additional costs from acquisitions until the deals are closed [122] Question: On interest rate sensitivity and potential ECB policy changes - Management expressed confidence that a shift to lower interest rates would favor their business model, particularly in personal finance [95][96]