Central Bank Gold Purchases - Goldman Sachs anticipates a significant increase in central-bank gold purchases for November, driven by a shift in reserve management as policymakers hedge against geopolitical and financial risks [1] - Goldman's estimates indicate central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September, a notable rise from the 21 tons projected for August, suggesting strong buying momentum through year-end [1] Reporting and Transparency Issues - A large portion of central bank gold purchases remains unreported, with the World Gold Council estimating that only one-third of global buying is reported to the IMF, down from approximately 90% four years ago [2] - China's official monthly disclosures show minimal purchases, with only 1.9 tons reported in August and July, and 2.2 tons in June, leading analysts to believe these figures do not reflect actual buying [3] China's Accumulation Strategy - Société Générale estimates that China could accumulate up to 250 tons of gold this year through trade flows, accounting for over one-third of global central-bank demand [4] - China's strategy involves minimal disclosure of gold purchases to avoid potential repercussions from the U.S. administration, as gold is viewed as a hedge against the U.S. [6] Market Dynamics and Price Outlook - The reluctance to report gold purchases is linked to a desire to prevent front-running in an increasingly illiquid market, with delivery timelines for gold reported as long as eight weeks [6] - Despite a strong performance in gold prices, institutions are betting on continued outperformance, with Goldman projecting a target price of $4,900 for gold by 2026 [7]

Group 1 - On May 12, international gold prices experienced significant declines, with London gold prices dropping below $3,225 per ounce, a stark contrast to the previous month's peak of over $3,500 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold prices also fell, with Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 gold price decreasing by 26.5 yuan to 759 yuan per gram, and gold-related stocks in the A-share market collectively declining [1] - The sales of gold jewelry surged during the recent holiday period, with a reported increase of over 53% in sales of gold jewelry and a 50% rise in investment gold bars compared to the previous year [2] Group 2 - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to progress in US-China trade talks, which has reduced market risk aversion, leading to price adjustments [5] - As of April, China's gold reserves increased to 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous six-month increase, with a total growth of nearly 100 million ounces over the past six months [9] - Analysts suggest that despite the recent drop, gold prices are expected to trend upwards in the future, and recommend a gradual investment strategy to capitalize on potential price rebounds [10]