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618与汽车销售疲软加剧一线城市消费下滑,25年日本增长目标或难实现,大摩依旧看好苹果0805宏观脱水 华尔街见闻
销售易· 2024-08-06 14:01AI Processing
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In June, the consumption data in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw a significant decline, with year-on-year growth rates dropping sharply compared to May, resulting in rates of -9.4%, -6.3%, -9.3%, and -2.2% respectively [2][3][21] - The overall consumption growth rate has gradually decreased to the lower end of the range for 2023 due to pressures on residents' income and declining housing prices [21][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive sales experienced a notable drop, which contributed to the overall decline in consumption in first-tier cities [10][22] - The performance of iPhone, iPad, and wearable devices exceeded expectations, partially offsetting the slight weakness in Mac sales [16][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The drastic drop in consumption in first-tier cities has raised concerns about economic slowdown, with the decline being attributed to both short-term factors like changes in promotional policies and the impact of falling automotive sales [21][22] - Industrial production saw a significant month-on-month decline of 3.6% in June, partly due to automotive production halts related to quality testing issues [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Apple is expected to prioritize the introduction of Apple Intelligence in China, Japan, the UK, Germany, and India over the next 12 months, following the strong performance of its products [16][25] - The integration of ChatGPT is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2024, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing product capabilities [25] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that despite an increase in disposable income, actual consumption has been on a continuous decline, raising concerns about achieving the 1% real GDP growth target for the fiscal year 2025 [11][24] - The management clarified that the upcoming iOS 18 will introduce some smart features, with a full suite of functionalities expected to roll out in the following year [25] Other Important Information - The cancellation of the pre-sale system for the 618 shopping festival by major e-commerce platforms led to a shift in online consumption from June to May, impacting the consumption figures for June [22] - The combination of high temperatures, rainfall, and last year's promotional activities contributed to the unusual consumption patterns observed in June [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the implications of the recent consumption data in major cities? - The drastic decline in consumption data in first-tier cities has raised concerns about market confidence and potential economic slowdown, attributed to both short-term factors and ongoing economic pressures [4][21] Question: How is Apple performing in the current market? - Apple's performance in iPhone, iPad, and wearable devices has been strong, helping to mitigate the impact of weaker Mac sales, with expectations for continued growth in the upcoming quarters [16][25]