Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the thermal coal industry, but it indicates a pecking order of sectors, placing thermal coal lower than aluminum, lithium, copper, steel, gold, battery, and cement [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights cautious market expectations regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector in China, with a focus on tracking high-frequency on-ground demand trends [1]. - Weekly production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines in China shows a slight decrease in output week-over-week but a modest increase year-over-year [2]. - The overall utilization ratio of sample mines has decreased slightly week-over-week but shows a year-over-year increase [3]. - Total coal inventory in sample mines has decreased week-over-week but increased year-over-year, indicating a mixed trend in inventory management [4]. Production Summary - From June 26 to July 2, 2025, thermal coal output from 100 sample mines was 12,008 kt, down 0.9% week-over-week, up 0.4% year-over-year, and up 1.4% year-over-year on the lunar calendar [2]. - Year-to-date output for sample mines reached 327 million tonnes, reflecting a 3.6% increase year-over-year [2]. Utilization Ratio Summary - The overall utilization ratio for the sample mines was 88.9%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points week-over-week, but an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - Utilization ratios varied by region, with Shanxi at 86.1%, Shaanxi at 88.3%, and Inner Mongolia at 90.9% [3]. Inventory Summary - Total coal inventory in sample mines was 3,302 kt as of July 2, 2025, down 0.5% week-over-week but up 3.9% year-over-year [4]. - Inventory levels in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed trends, with Shanxi and Shaanxi experiencing decreases week-over-week, while Inner Mongolia saw a slight increase [4].