Summary of the Conference Call on Thermal Coal Production and Inventory Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of October 23 to October 29, 2025 [1][2]. Key Points Production Data - **Total Output**: China's thermal coal output from the sample mines was 11,962 kt, reflecting a week-over-week (WoW) increase of 0.4%, but a year-over-year (YoY) decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Regional Breakdown**: - Shanxi: 2,865 kt (+1.9% WoW, -2.4% YoY) - Shaanxi: 3,527 kt (+0.8% WoW, -4.8% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 5,570 kt (-0.6% WoW, +0.7% YoY) [1]. - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Output**: The YTD thermal coal output was 533 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.0% increase YoY, with regional contributions as follows: - Shanxi: +4.1% YoY - Shaanxi: +1.0% YoY - Inner Mongolia: +3.9% YoY [1]. Utilization Ratio - **Overall Utilization**: The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was 88.6%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points (ppt) WoW but a decrease of 1.6 ppt YoY [1]. - **Regional Utilization**: - Shanxi: 83.2% (+1.6 ppt WoW, -2.1 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: 90.0% (+0.7 ppt WoW, -4.5 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 90.7% (-0.5 ppt WoW, +0.6 ppt YoY) [1]. Inventory Levels - **Total Inventory**: The total coal inventory in the sample mines was 3,196 kt as of October 29, 2025, which is an increase of 1.6% WoW but a slight decrease of 0.2% YoY [2]. - **Regional Inventory**: - Shanxi: 857 kt (+1.3% WoW, -2.3% YoY) - Shaanxi: 691 kt (+2.5% WoW, -13.8% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 1,648 kt (+1.4% WoW, +8.1% YoY) [2]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a pecking order of demand for various materials, with copper, battery materials, and gold leading, followed by aluminum, cement, steel, lithium, and thermal coal [1]. - The data reflects ongoing trends in the thermal coal market, which may be influenced by broader economic conditions and energy demands in China [1][2]. This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the conference call regarding the thermal coal industry in China, highlighting production, utilization, and inventory trends.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the thermal coal industry, but it indicates a pecking order of sectors, placing thermal coal lower than aluminum, lithium, copper, steel, gold, battery, and cement [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights cautious market expectations regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector in China, with a focus on tracking high-frequency on-ground demand trends [1]. - Weekly production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines in China shows a slight decrease in output week-over-week but a modest increase year-over-year [2]. - The overall utilization ratio of sample mines has decreased slightly week-over-week but shows a year-over-year increase [3]. - Total coal inventory in sample mines has decreased week-over-week but increased year-over-year, indicating a mixed trend in inventory management [4]. Production Summary - From June 26 to July 2, 2025, thermal coal output from 100 sample mines was 12,008 kt, down 0.9% week-over-week, up 0.4% year-over-year, and up 1.4% year-over-year on the lunar calendar [2]. - Year-to-date output for sample mines reached 327 million tonnes, reflecting a 3.6% increase year-over-year [2]. Utilization Ratio Summary - The overall utilization ratio for the sample mines was 88.9%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points week-over-week, but an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - Utilization ratios varied by region, with Shanxi at 86.1%, Shaanxi at 88.3%, and Inner Mongolia at 90.9% [3]. Inventory Summary - Total coal inventory in sample mines was 3,302 kt as of July 2, 2025, down 0.5% week-over-week but up 3.9% year-over-year [4]. - Inventory levels in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed trends, with Shanxi and Shaanxi experiencing decreases week-over-week, while Inner Mongolia saw a slight increase [4].