更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 24 March 2026 | 4:12PM EDT Commodities Research COMMODITY ANALYST Hormuz Disruption May Impact Global Agriculture Prices Lina Thomas +1(212)902-8376 | lina.thomas@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/resear ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the broader commodity complex in relation to the recent gold rally, highlighting the implications for various commodities including industrial metals and food products [4][9][10]. Core Insights 1. **Insurance-Type Demand**: - The gold rally has been supported by sustained central bank accumulation as a hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, which is now seen in other commodities as well [4][11][12]. - Increased tariffs, export controls, and government inventory building reflect a shift towards securing commodity supply in response to past supply chain disruptions [4][12]. 2. **Regional Market Segmentation**: - Commodity markets are transitioning from a global balance to more regionally segmented systems, which raises the risk of higher price volatility [4][28][30]. - An example is copper, where despite a projected global oversupply in 2025, prices have firmed due to US stockpiling, creating a deficit in the ex-US market [4][34]. 3. **Private Sector Demand**: - Recent feedback indicates that private sector investors are increasingly seeking hard assets for diversification, contributing to the metals rally and amplifying price volatility [4][49]. 4. **Supply Response Dynamics**: - Unlike gold, where supply is stable and unresponsive to price changes, other commodities have a more significant supply response that can dampen demand shocks [4][50][55]. - Policies aimed at supply security may lead to overproduction, resulting in price softening and increased concentration of commodity supply [4][55][58]. 5. **Long-Term Price Expectations**: - While long-term gold prices are expected to rise, the broader commodity space is anticipated to exhibit more differentiated returns and potentially higher volatility [4][5][10]. Additional Important Insights - **China's Energy and Food Security**: - China is focusing on energy security by expanding coal production and building renewable energy sources, which is part of a broader strategy to enhance self-sufficiency in food and energy [17][19][21]. - The country aims to increase food self-sufficiency to the mid-90% range by 2035, up from the current low-60% levels [21]. - **Government Stockpiling Initiatives**: - In response to global food crises, countries like India and the US are rebuilding strategic reserves, with the US initiating "Project Vault," a $12 billion strategic mineral stockpile [24][27]. - **Price Impact of Disruptions**: - The price impact of disruptions is inversely related to the size of the market absorbing them; regionalization can lead to greater price volatility [43][62]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the commodity market in relation to the gold rally.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the commodities market, particularly in the context of the US-China geopolitical landscape and the energy supply dynamics for 2025-2032 [2][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The US-China AI and geopolitical power race is a significant driver for commodity investments, particularly gold, as emerging market (EM) central banks diversify into gold to hedge against geopolitical risks [2][6]. - A long-term bullish outlook for gold is maintained, with expectations for the price to rise by 14% to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, driven by increased central bank demand and potential diversification into private investments [2][13][15]. - Commodities are viewed as portfolio insurance due to rising supply concentration and geopolitical tensions, which increase the risk of supply disruptions [20][21]. Specific Commodity Insights - **Gold**: Continued strong demand from central banks is expected, averaging 70 tonnes per month in 2026, significantly higher than pre-2022 levels [15][16]. - **Copper vs. Aluminum**: A recommendation to go long on copper and short on aluminum is based on copper's supply constraints and increasing demand from electrification, while aluminum supply is expected to rise due to China's overseas investments [10][33][41]. - **Oil Market**: A forecast of a 2.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) surplus in the oil market for 2026, with Brent and WTI prices expected to average $56 and $52 respectively [60][61]. The oil supply wave is anticipated to be short-lived, leading to lower prices [59][60]. - **Natural Gas**: A global gas glut is expected, with LNG supply projected to increase by over 50% by 2030, leading to a potential 35% reduction in European natural gas prices by mid-2027 [67][71]. Market Dynamics - The US power market is tightening due to a surge in data center demand, which is expected to outpace power generation capacity, leading to higher prices and potential outages [47][52][53]. - The report highlights the geographic concentration of commodity supply and the strategic role of commodities in the context of geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding rare earths and critical minerals [20][21][27]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the cyclical and structural trends in the commodities market, with significant return differentiation expected across various commodities in 2026 [3][81]. - The potential for supply disruptions in critical minerals and the implications of China's export restrictions on rare earths are noted as significant risks [21][26]. - The report also discusses the long-term outlook for oil and gas prices, suggesting that while short-term pressures may exist, a recovery is expected in the latter part of 2026 and into 2027 [66][78]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the commodities market's dynamics and the implications of geopolitical factors on investment strategies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the **Commodity Control Cycle** and its implications in a less integrated world, focusing on the strategic role of commodities as globalization stalls and geopolitical tensions rise [4][17][22]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Stagflationary Regimes**: Equity-bond portfolios lack diversification during stagflation, particularly when US institutional credibility erodes, leading to inflation and a sell-off in equities and bonds. Gold serves as a hedge in such scenarios [4][7][9]. 2. **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The report outlines a **4-step commodity control cycle**: - Governments insulate supply chains through tariffs and subsidies [19]. - Domestic supply is expanded and secured, leading to surplus production being exported [19]. - Falling global commodity prices cause higher-cost producers to exit, concentrating supply [19]. - Dominant producers leverage their position, increasing disruption risk and price volatility [19][51]. 3. **Geopolitical Concentration**: Commodity supply is increasingly concentrated in geopolitical hotspots. The US is projected to provide over a third of global LNG by 2030, while China controls over 90% of global rare earth refining, critical for advanced technologies [22][24]. 4. **Inflation and Commodities**: Commodities may provide a hedge against inflation, especially when supply disruptions occur. Energy commodities are particularly significant due to their direct impact on inflation [24][30]. 5. **Historical Context**: The report references historical instances where commodity supply was used as leverage, such as the 1973 oil embargo and recent actions by Russia and China regarding energy and rare earth exports [52][54]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Investment in Gold**: Central banks have increased gold purchases significantly, rising more than fivefold since the freezing of Russian assets in 2022, highlighting gold's role as a financial insulation asset [30]. 2. **China's Energy Strategy**: China is expanding coal production and building renewable energy sources, indicating a shift towards energy security rather than purely environmental concerns [26]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that while supply expansion can lead to short-term price drops, it ultimately results in greater control over the market by fewer producers [39]. 4. **Diplomatic Leverage**: The US has linked energy exports to diplomatic negotiations, increasing reliance on US supplies among allies [45]. 5. **Chokepoints in Trade**: The report emphasizes the importance of maritime chokepoints in global trade, which are becoming increasingly vulnerable due to reduced naval defense spending by allied nations [46]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call, focusing on the evolving dynamics of the commodities market and its implications for investors.