Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.05 (+0.34%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +3.90 (+0.92%) [1] - Sugar prices are expected to rise due to anticipated index-related buying of sugar futures, with Citigroup projecting inflows of $1.2 billion in sugar futures contracts for the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes [1] Group 2: Sugar Production and Supply Outlook - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 increased by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.158 million metric tons (MMT), with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 50.91% in 2025/26 from 48.19% in 2024/25 [2] - Covrig Analytics raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT, but projects a decrease in the surplus to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [3] - Safras & Mercado forecasts a decline in Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26, with exports expected to fall by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [4] Group 3: Indian Sugar Production and Export Dynamics - Indian sugar production for 2025-26 increased by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, with the Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raising its production estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% year-on-year [5] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system for sugar exports introduced in 2022/23 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a projected global sugar surplus, although future supply constraints from Brazil may provide some support for prices [1][3]. Group 1: Global Sugar Supply and Demand - Covrig Analytics has increased its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) from 4.1 MMT, indicating a larger surplus than previously expected [1]. - The forecast for the 2026/27 global sugar surplus is expected to decrease to 1.4 MMT, as lower prices may discourage production [1]. - Brazil's sugar production is projected to decline by 3.91% to 41.8 MMT in 2026/27, down from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, which could support sugar prices [3]. Group 2: Regional Production Trends - Indian sugar production for the 2025-26 season has surged by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, prompting concerns about price pressures [4]. - The Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 production estimate for India to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4]. - India is considering allowing additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, with a quota of 1.5 MMT set for the 2025/26 season [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Expectations of index-related buying of sugar futures are anticipated to provide support, with Citigroup projecting inflows of $1.2 billion into sugar futures contracts for index rebalancing this week [2]. - The potential for increased sugar exports from India is seen as a negative factor for prices, as the government may permit additional exports to manage domestic supply [5].

Core Insights - Global sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure due to an anticipated larger sugar surplus, with Covrig Analytics increasing its 2025/26 surplus estimate to 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) from 4.1 MMT [1] - However, future projections indicate a decrease in surplus to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 as low prices may deter production [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Expectations of index-related buying are providing support for sugar prices, with Citigroup forecasting $1.2 billion inflows into sugar futures contracts for index rebalancing this week [2] - Brazil's sugar production is projected to decline by 3.91% to 41.8 MMT in 2026/27, which is bullish for prices, alongside an expected 11% year-on-year drop in exports to 30 MMT [3] Group 2: Regional Production Trends - Indian sugar production has surged by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT for the period from October 1 to December 31, 2025, prompting the Indian Sugar Mill Association to raise its overall production estimate for 2025/26 to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4] - The Indian government is considering allowing additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, with a quota of 1.5 MMT set for the 2025/26 season [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced mixed movements, with NY world sugar closing down slightly while London ICE white sugar saw a minor increase, influenced by a rally in the dollar index which pressured sugar futures [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Sugar prices initially rose due to expectations of index-related buying for annual commodity index rebalancing, with Citigroup projecting inflows of $1.2 billion into sugar futures contracts over the next week [2] - Last Monday, NY sugar reached a 2.5-month high based on expectations of reduced future sugar supplies from Brazil, with a forecasted production decrease of 3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) for 2026/27 [3] - Sugar prices fell to two-week lows due to indications of increased sugar output in India, where production for 2025-26 surged by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT [4] Group 2: Supply and Export Trends - India's food secretary indicated potential for additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, with a quota allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [5] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, contributing to a bearish outlook for sugar prices [6] - The cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region increased by 1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased, reaching one-week highs due to expectations of index-related buying for annual rebalancing, with projected inflows of $1.2 billion into sugar futures contracts from major commodity indexes [2] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.08 (+0.53%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +2.00 (+0.47%) [1] - Sugar prices fell to two-week lows last Friday due to signs of stronger sugar output in India [5] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The Brazilian real's recent strength is supportive for sugar prices as it discourages export sales, potentially reducing supplies [3] - Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2026/27, with exports projected to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [4] Group 3: Indian Sugar Production - Indian sugar production for 2025-26 has increased by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, with the overall production estimate raised to 31 MMT, up +18.8% year-on-year [5] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [6]

Group 1 - Gold prices declined to $4,453.85 an ounce, influenced by traders focusing on upcoming US economic data despite geopolitical tensions [8] - The geopolitical landscape remains fragile, with traders anticipating a busy lineup of US economic data, including the December jobs report [3] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran indicated that the central bank may need to cut rates by more than a percentage point in 2026, which could support precious metals [4] Group 2 - Gold posted its best annual performance since 1979, with significant support from central-bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed ETFs [5] - Silver prices surged nearly 150% last year due to a shortage of metal and potential US import tariffs, although it fell 3.8% recently [5][6] - Citigroup Inc. estimated $6.8 billion outflows from gold and silver futures contracts due to a rebalancing of commodity indexes [7]