Group 1 - The results were presented positively based on 'comparable sales' growth, leading to a favorable stock reaction [1] - Despite the positive presentation, underlying trends indicate more challenging conditions for the companies involved [1] - The focus of Quipus Capital is on operational aspects and long-term earnings power rather than market-driven dynamics [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy emphasizes holding companies independently of future price movements, with most recommendations being holds [1] - A small fraction of companies are considered suitable for buying at any given time, highlighting a cautious investment approach [1] - Hold articles are intended to provide valuable information for future investors and introduce skepticism in a bullish market [1]

Core Insights - Costco reported net sales of $20.89 billion for July, marking an 8.5% increase from $19.26 billion last year [1] - JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers raised the price forecast for Costco shares from $1,115 to $1,160, maintaining an Overweight rating [1] Sales Performance - Canada and Other International core comps outperformed expectations, with growth rates of 9.1% versus 5.7% and 7.5% versus 6.4% respectively [2] - U.S. growth was driven by the Northwest, Midwest, and Southeast regions, while Australia, Taiwan, and Mexico led international growth [2] E-commerce and Sales Strategies - E-commerce sales increased by 14.9% excluding foreign exchange impacts, with July's cannibalization headwind easing to 50 basis points [3] - The introduction of extra hours for executive members has contributed approximately a 1.5-point lift to comparable sales [4] Future Expectations - Horvers anticipates that Costco will detail the sales benefits versus operating costs in its fourth-quarter conference call in September, with potential acceleration during peak holiday shopping [5] - July's sales benefited from easier year-over-year comparisons due to past hurricanes and a consumer pause in late July 2024 [5] Market Position and Sales Trends - Non-food sales remained strong despite a two-year low in monthly gold bar growth, with comparison ease expected to continue beyond August [6] - Costco is recognized for its successful entry into every market it has entered, with its club model ranking just behind auto parts as a top-performing retail sector [6]

Costco Wholesale (COST) 2025 Update Summary Industry Overview - The call pertains to the retail industry, specifically focusing on Costco Wholesale's performance during the five-week retail month of June 2025. Key Financial Metrics - **Net Sales**: Reported net sales for June 2025 were $26.44 billion, representing an 8% increase from $24.48 billion in June 2024 [2] - **Comparable Sales**: - US: 4.7% - Canada: 6.7% - Other International: 10.9% - Total Company: 5.8% - E-commerce: 11.5% [2] - **Comparable Sales Excluding Gas and FX**: - US: 5.5% - Canada: 7.9% - Other International: 8.2% - Total Company: 6.2% - E-commerce: 11.2% [3] Traffic and Transaction Insights - **Traffic Growth**: Comp traffic increased by 3.4% worldwide and 2.8% in the US [4] - **Average Transaction Value**: - Worldwide average transaction value increased by 2.4%, and by 2.8% when excluding gas deflation and foreign exchange impacts [5] Regional Performance - **Strongest US Regions**: Northwest, Midwest, and Southeast showed the best comparable sales performance [5] - **International Performance**: Australia, Mexico, and Taiwan reported the strongest results among other international markets [6] Merchandising Highlights - **Food Categories**: - Foods and sundries showed positive mid-single-digit growth - Fresh foods increased by high single digits, with meat and produce being top performers [6][7] - **Non-food Categories**: - Positive mid to high single-digit growth, with jewelry, majors, and gift cards performing well [7] - **Ancillary Business Sales**: Experienced a decline in low single digits, while pharmacy, hearing aid, and optical departments were top performers [8] External Factors Impacting Sales - **Gas Price Deflation**: Negatively impacted total reported comparable sales by approximately -0.9% [4] - **Foreign Currency Impact**: - Canada: +0.2% - Other International: +3.4% - Total Company: +0.5% [4] Future Outlook - The next reporting period will cover four weeks from July 7 to August 3, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024 [8]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers has lowered estimates for Lowe's Companies Inc. ahead of its first-quarter earnings release, indicating a more challenging environment than previously anticipated [1][4]. Group 1: First Quarter Estimates - First-quarter comparable sales estimates for Lowe's have been cut to -2.7%, which is below the Street's consensus of -1.7% and broader buyside expectations of a decline between 2% to 3.5% [1][2]. - Lowe's had previously guided for a -2% comparable sales for the first quarter and expected flat comps for the first half, anticipating a ~$400 million shift of spring sales into the second quarter [2][3]. Group 2: Weather Impact - The company faced significant headwinds from unfavorable DIY weather conditions earlier in the quarter, leading to underperformance compared to Home Depot, even as weather conditions improved later [2][3]. - The second quarter is expected to have easier weather comparisons, but estimates have been slightly lowered to +2% from +3% due to first-quarter underperformance and uncertain weather outlook [3]. Group 3: Earnings and Guidance - The estimated first-quarter EPS for Lowe's is $2.87, compared to the Street's estimate of $2.91 [3]. - Given the expectation of missing the first-quarter outlook, Lowe's is anticipated to adjust its full-year guidance towards the lower end of flat comparable sales and around a 12.3% operating margin [4]. - The company is expected to reiterate confidence in managing tariffs and safeguarding margins despite a less favorable scenario [4].

2nd Quarter FY 2025 Q2 Highlights - Sales $62.5B Net Sales +9.1% Growth +6.8% Comparable Sales +9.1% +5.7% +1.0% Comparable Ticket Supplemental Information 1 Comparable Traffic +3.2% Adjusted Comparable Ticket1 +20.9% E-Comm Comparable Sales +22.2% Adjusted E-Comm Comparable Sales2 1 - Excluding impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange 2 - E-commerce Comparable Sales excluding impacts from FX 2 Adjusted Comparable Sales1 Q2 Highlights – Sales - Segment Reporting | Comp Sales | US | Canad ...

Core Viewpoint - Costco reported a revenue of $63.72 billion for the quarter ended February 2025, marking a 9% year-over-year increase, with an EPS of $4.02 compared to $3.71 a year ago, indicating strong financial performance despite a slight EPS miss against consensus estimates [1] Financial Performance - Revenue of $63.72 billion exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $63.22 billion by 0.79% [1] - EPS of $4.02 was below the consensus estimate of $4.09, resulting in an EPS surprise of -1.71% [1] - Membership fees revenue was reported at $1.19 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.21 billion, but showed a year-over-year increase of 7.4% [4] - Net sales revenue reached $62.53 billion, surpassing the average estimate of $62.08 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 9.1% [4] Comparable Sales Metrics - Total comparable sales increased by 9.1%, outperforming the eight-analyst average estimate of 6.6% [4] - U.S. comparable sales rose by 8.3%, exceeding the average estimate of 6% [4] - Comparable sales in Canada increased by 4.6%, falling short of the average estimate of 6.1% [4] - Comparable sales for Other International markets were reported at 1.7%, significantly below the average estimate of 5.7% [4] Warehouse Metrics - Total number of warehouses worldwide was reported at 897, slightly below the average estimate of 903 [4] - In the U.S. and Puerto Rico, the number of warehouses was 617, compared to the estimated 620 [4] Stock Performance - Costco shares returned +0.5% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite declined by -3.5% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance against the broader market in the near term [3]

Costco Wholesale (COST) 2025 Update Summary Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Costco Wholesale, a leading retail company known for its membership-based warehouse club model [1] Core Points and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: - Net sales for January reached $19.51 billion, marking a 9.2% increase from $17.87 billion in the same month last year [3] - Comparable sales in the U.S. increased by 9.2%, while Canada saw a 5.7% increase, and other international markets reported a 1.1% increase [3] - E-commerce sales grew by 13.6% [3] - **Comparable Sales Excluding Gas and FX**: - Comparable sales excluding the impacts of gasoline prices and foreign exchange were as follows: U.S. at 9.2%, Canada at 12.3%, and other international at 10% [3] - **Traffic and Frequency**: - Comparable traffic increased by 7.1% globally and in the U.S. [4] - **Impact of Foreign Exchange**: - Foreign currency fluctuations negatively impacted total and comparable sales, with Canada down approximately 7.6% and other international down approximately 9.1% [4] - **Gas Price Inflation**: - Gas price inflation positively impacted total reported comparable sales by approximately 0.1% [5] - **Average Transaction Value**: - The average worldwide selling price per gallon of gas increased by approximately 1.2% year-over-year, with the average transaction value up about 0.4% [5] Merchandise Highlights - **Category Performance**: - Food and sundries showed positive high single-digit growth, with strong performance in cooler, candy, and frozen foods [6] - Fresh foods increased by low double digits, particularly in meat and produce [7] - Non-food items also saw low double-digit growth, with notable performance in gift cards, toys, seasonal items, and jewelry [7] - Ancillary business sales rose by mid single digits, with pharmacy, optical, and food court being the top performers [7] Forward-Looking Statements - The February reporting period will cover the four weeks from February 3 to March 2, with results to be announced alongside Q2 quarterly results on March 6 [8] Additional Information - The call included forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ from those projected [2] - The company does not commit to updating forward-looking statements except as required by law [2]