Private employers eliminated an average of 2,500 jobs a week during the four weeks ended Nov. 1, ADP said in a Tuesday (Nov. 18) press release.By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins required.On Oct. 25, ADP’s four- ...

Nine, MetLife Investment Management chief market strategist Drew Matus is with us. Nice to have you on set, drew. Good to see you.What vulnerabilities are you worried about. >> Well, I'm worried that actually we were just talking about this. I think parents are worried about their kids.And I think when you look at the when you look at the labor market data that we have, and then you look at what's happening to consumer sentiment and you see what's happening with youth unemployment. The only way to square th ...

Core Insights - Americans express optimism about the overall economy, yet they feel less confident about their personal financial situations, indicating a disconnect between general economic sentiment and individual financial health [1] Group 1 - The article highlights that consumer confidence in the economy is high, with many Americans believing that the economy is improving [1] - Despite the positive outlook on the economy, a significant portion of Americans report feeling financially strained, which could lead to potential challenges in consumer spending [1] - The disparity between general economic optimism and personal financial concerns may pose risks for businesses relying on consumer spending [1]

Joining me now is Venu Krisha Barker's head of US strategy, equity strategy specifically. Thank you so much for being here with us. I'd love to talk about some of your changes. Let's talk about downgrading uh value to negative and your worries there.>> Yeah, I think you know we have been consistently positive on growth. So, and growth as you know is really dominated by technology where uh not just overall profitability but uh the scale of the beats of earnings continues. value other on the other hand has ex ...

Joining me for more is Steve Oddland, president and CEO of the conference board. Steve, it's good to speak with you and that that stat takes me by surprise, especially given the NRF stat we saw where they suggested we could see the first trillion dollar Christmas or holiday season. Um, what are you seeing in your data and why.>> Yeah, well, the NRF stat is a little narrower than ours. Ours is all holiday spending on travel, on clothes, on parties, on food, the whole thing. And and it's expected to be down a ...

It was a conj job. Affordability, they call it, was a conjob by the by the Democrats. The Democrats are good at a few things.Cheating on elections and conning people with facts that aren't true. They said, "Oh, I don't want to talk about affordability." The reason I don't want to talk about affordability is because everybody knows that it's far less expensive under Trump than it was under Sleepy Joe Biden. And the prices are way down.As President Trump on Friday, calling the Democratic Party's focus on affo ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of weakening consumer sentiment on retail stocks, highlighting the importance of consumer behavior over sentiment surveys [2][5][17] - The National Retail Federation anticipates a record holiday spending season, projecting over $1 trillion in spending, a 4% increase from the previous year [6][17] Retail Sector Overview - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey recorded the second-lowest reading in history, indicating a significant decline in consumer confidence [2][5] - Despite negative sentiment, historical trends suggest that consumer spending may not decline as sharply as sentiment indicates [8][17] Key Retail Stocks to Watch - **Walmart (WMT)**: The stock has shown resilience, steadily increasing since April and maintaining a bullish momentum with its 50-day moving average trending upwards [11][12] - **Target (TGT)**: The stock is underperforming, nearing six-year lows, and has not shown significant impact on broader market indices due to its smaller market capitalization of $42 billion [13][14] - **Home Depot (HD)**: The stock is in a weaker position compared to Walmart but stronger than Target, facing challenges from high mortgage rates and a sluggish housing market [15][16] Market Trends and Predictions - The retail sector is experiencing mixed signals, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) correcting after a significant rise earlier in the year [10][17] - Upcoming earnings reports from major retailers will provide critical insights into consumer spending patterns as the holiday season approaches [7][17]

Michael Bapis. I I'll hit you first here as we uh go towards the closure about two minutes, three minutes away or so. You say there's a lot of cautious optimism in markets.I'll give you there's like volatility came back last week, but do you you feel there's a lot of caution. Look, I think one of the key themes that we're looking at is the battle between, you know, consumer spending and consumer consumer sentiment being down and like you just said, strong equity markets. I mean, we're getting to more now wh ...

Economic Overview - Last week's economic data presented mixed signals, with consumer sentiment dropping to a near-record low and the manufacturing sector continuing its contraction, while the services sector showed signs of expansion [1] - The S&P 500 experienced its first weekly loss in over a month, declining by 1.6% [10] Employment Data - The October ADP employment report indicated that the private sector added 42,000 jobs, surpassing the expected addition of 32,000 jobs, following a loss of 29,000 jobs in September [3] - Job gains were primarily driven by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector, which added 47,000 jobs, with large companies contributing significantly by adding 74,000 jobs [4] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell over 6% to 50.3, marking its lowest level since 2022 and reflecting a nearly 30% decline compared to the previous year [5][6] - The decline in consumer confidence was widespread, with notable exceptions for consumers with significant stock holdings [6] Inflation Expectations - Near-term inflation expectations slightly increased from 4.6% in October to 4.7% in November, while long-term expectations decreased from 3.9% to 3.6% for the five-year outlook [7] Manufacturing and Services Sector - The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7, indicating a faster rate of contraction [8] - Conversely, the U.S. services sector returned to expansion with the ISM Services PMI rising to 52.4, marking its highest level since February and indicating eight months of expansion this year [9] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 saw fluctuations, ultimately closing down 1.6%, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reflecting the same decline [10] - The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.11%, while the 2-year note finished at 3.55% [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 66% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, with markets anticipating two additional cuts in 2026 [11] Upcoming Economic Data - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed key economic indicators, including the Consumer and Producer Price Indices and Retail Sales report, leading to a light economic calendar for the week ahead [12][13]

Both the job market and consumer sentiment are significantly better than you are being told.It doesn’t get clicks, so the media isn’t incentivized to cover it.But that doesn’t make it less true. ...