December 5, 2025 03:42 PM GMT US Economics | North America Tariffs start to cool real spending Key Takeaways Nominal income rose 0.4% with labor comp up 0.4%. The slight upward surprise was due to strong asset income. Real disposable personal income rose 0.1% m/m. | M Downloaded by daisy@ilookcap.com | Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Update | | December 5, 2025 03:42 PM GMT | | | | US Economics North America | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC | | | | Mi ...

Key Takeaways December 5, 2025 03:42 PM GMT US Economics | North America Tariffs start to cool real spending | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Update | | December 5, 2025 03:42 PM GMT | | | | US Economics North America | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC | | | | Michael T Gapen | | | | Chief US Economist | | | Tariffs start to cool real | Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com Sam D Coffin | +1 212 761-0571 | | | Economist | | | spending | Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-4630 | | | Diego Anzoategui | | | | Econ ...

Group 1 - The Treasury market is currently hovering below a key level of 4.25%, but remains above the significant 4% level, indicating market stability despite inflation concerns [1][2] - Year-over-year core PCE inflation is reported at 2.9%, which is above the pre-COVID levels and indicates persistent inflationary pressures, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2][3] - The Federal Reserve may reconsider aggressive easing strategies due to the persistent inflation and stable labor market, as evidenced by the tame claims data of 218,000 [3] Group 2 - The Treasury yields have increased, with a rise of seven basis points on the week for the 10-year and five basis points for the two-year, reflecting market reactions to recent economic data [4] - The dollar index has appreciated by approximately 1.6% since the Federal Reserve's easing on the 17th, indicating a strengthening dollar amidst the current economic environment [4]

Market Trends & Inflation - The Treasury market's tenure is hovering below a key level of 425 basis points (425%) [1] - Inflation remains sticky, with year-over-year core PCE inflation at 290 basis points (290%) [1][2] - Core PCE inflation is holding at slightly below 300 basis points (300%), well above pre-COVID levels, while the target is 200 basis points (200%) [2] Monetary Policy & Labor Market - The Fed should pause any aggressive easing strategy unless the labor market deteriorates [3] - Initial claims were at 218000, indicating a tame labor market [3] Treasury Market & Dollar Index - Treasury yields are up seven basis points (700%) on the week in a two-year and about five basis points (500%) in a 10-year [4] - Since the Fed's easing on the 17th, the dollar index is up about 160 basis points (160%) [4] Economic Sentiment - University of Michigan sentiment shows some deterioration [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **North American economic outlook**, focusing on **core PCE inflation** and **PPI data**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Revised Core PCE Inflation Estimate**: The tracking estimate for July core PCE inflation has been revised up by 6 basis points to **0.307%** from a previous estimate of **0.243%** [2][9] 2. **June Core PCE Inflation Revision**: Backward revisions to PPI data suggest that June core PCE inflation will likely be revised up by **2 basis points** [2] 3. **Three-Month Annualized Core Inflation**: If the forecast materializes, the three-month annualized pace of core inflation is expected to increase to **3.22%** in July from **2.70%** in June [2][8] 4. **PPI Components Performance**: PPI's portfolio management and investment prices rose sharply by **5.4%** month-over-month, significantly higher than the forecasted **2.7%** increase [6][9] 5. **Airline Fares Impact**: The increase in portfolio management prices was only partially offset by a decline in airline fares, which fell by **2.3%** month-over-month [12][9] 6. **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectation**: The expectation remains for the Federal Reserve to deliver a **25 basis point** cut at the upcoming September meeting, despite the upside surprise in portfolio management prices [9][20] 7. **Core PCE Tracking**: Core PCE is tracking close to the Fed's year-end forecast of **3.1%**, allowing officials to focus on downside risks to growth and employment data [9][20] 8. **Inflation Above Target**: Inflation is currently running well above the Fed's **2%** target, making a **50 basis point** cut unlikely [21] Additional Important Insights 1. **Broadening Price Pressures**: There are signs of broadening price pressures beyond the components that directly feed into core PCE inflation [12] 2. **Final Demand Services Growth**: Final demand services grew by **1.1%** month-over-month, marking the largest advance since March 2022, primarily driven by margins for final demand trade services [13] 3. **PPI's Finished Consumer Goods Prices**: The price index for finished consumer goods continued to rise in July, consistent with factory survey reports [13][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the economic indicators and expectations surrounding inflation and Federal Reserve policy.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve, indicating potential rate cuts in September due to weak consumer spending and subdued core PCE inflation [1][8]. Core Insights - Consumer spending has shown signs of persistent weakness, particularly in services, with a nominal increase of only 0.1% MoM and flat real terms, leading to an overall decline in personal spending [5][7]. - Core PCE inflation increased by 0.179% MoM, slightly above expectations, but still subdued enough to support the case for rate cuts [4][8]. - The report highlights a significant decline in travel-related spending, particularly in air travel and hotel accommodations, which have seen declines every month this year [7][8]. Summary by Sections Consumer Spending - Personal spending fell by 0.1% MoM in nominal terms and 0.3% in real terms, with goods spending declining by 0.8% MoM [5]. - Services spending showed unexpected weakness, with a nominal increase of only 0.1% MoM and flat in real terms, indicating a broader trend of reduced consumer demand [5][7]. Inflation Metrics - Core PCE inflation was reported at 0.179% MoM, slightly stronger than consensus but still indicative of a soft inflation environment [4][8]. - The report suggests that weak consumer demand limits the ability of firms to pass through tariff price increases, reducing the risk of broad-based inflation [8]. Employment Implications - The report indicates that weaker consumer demand could lead to softer hiring, raising downside risks to the Federal Reserve's employment mandate [8].