Key Points Certain powerful crypto investors have proposed that there is a bull run ahead. That thesis is controversial, as it rejects widely held beliefs about crypto market cycles. There are still plenty of other reasons to believe that more growth is ahead. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › There's a new narrative being advanced by some of the crypto sector's most important players right now, saying that the real crypto bull market hasn't even begun. In the aftermath of the crypto flash ...

Market Cycle Analysis - The crypto market has historically followed the business cycle, potentially extending into 2026, suggesting a prolonged bull market [2] - Macro analysts suggest the crypto market cycle is no longer solely based on Bitcoin halving but correlates with the economic cycle, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Index [6][7] - The ISM, an indicator of economic activity, has historically correlated with Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms, but this pattern has recently broken [9][10] - An extended debt refinancing cycle, with average debt maturity increasing to approximately 54 years due to the pandemic, may be extending the liquidity and crypto cycles [12] Liquidity and Economic Indicators - Some analysts argue that economic indicators like the ISM are misleading and have unclear correlation with global liquidity [16] - Global liquidity, measured by Global M2, has risen, but Bitcoin's price has flatlined, weakening the correlation between the two [18] - Central bank policies and debt refinancing challenges could lead to a contraction in global liquidity, potentially impacting the crypto market [20][21] - Economic data may be deceptive due to factors like inflation and unemployment rates, making the economy appear stronger than it is [26][27] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The crypto market is expected to continue a gradual upward trend, mirroring the overall economy [40] - Assuming a recession is avoided, Q4 2025 is projected to be bullish, with Bitcoin potentially reaching its cycle top, followed by Ethereum and altcoins approximately one month later [47][48] - The current crypto market cycle differs from previous cycles due to less loose monetary policy, more mature regulatory frameworks, and different patterns of retail participation [44][45] - AI-related ventures have significantly contributed to economic growth, particularly in the US, impacting sectors like chip manufacturing and infrastructure [36][37]

Core Insights - The current retail environment in the crypto market is characterized by "maximum desperation," indicating a potential bottom rather than the end of the cycle [1] - The shift towards an institutionally driven market is viewed as a bullish element, with optimism for a rally into year-end and Q1 2026 [2] - The flush out of retail leverage-driven sentiment is nearing completion, suggesting a bullish reversal is imminent [3] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is at a depressive level, which is often a signal of a market bottom [1] - Recent liquidations and failures in yield protocols have contributed to this sentiment [1] Price Projections - Bitcoin is projected to reach between $150,000 and $200,000 by year-end, supported by strong fundamentals [4] - The BTC/Gold ratio has shown signs of bottoming, which historically precedes Bitcoin breakouts by 60–90 days [5] Market Structure - The current price action of Bitcoin aligns with a historic four-year cycle, suggesting a cycle top could occur in Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026 [5] - The next weekly cycle low for Bitcoin is either in or imminent, potentially leading to new all-time highs [6]

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - Kraken is hosting a discussion on identifying the current stage of the crypto market cycle, featuring experts like @Dentoshi, @matthewbarby, and @tradermayne [1] - BreakoutProp joins Kraken, expanding opportunities for skilled traders [1]

Market Trends & Events - Kraken 将举办关于加密货币市场周期阶段的讨论会，主题为“Top or Not? How to Tell Where We Are in the Crypto Market Cycle” [1] - 特邀嘉宾包括 @tradermayne [1] Company News & Partnerships - Breakoutprop 加入 Kraken，标志着 Kraken 在为熟练交易员扩展机会方面的一个里程碑 [1]

Market Analysis - Crypto market cycle analysis: Determining the current position [1] Events & Partnerships - Kraken hosts "Trading Spaces" event with Dentoshi, Matthew Barby, and Tradermayne [1] - Breakoutprop joins Kraken, expanding opportunities for skilled traders [1]

Event Announcement - Kraken 将举办线上交易讨论会，主题为加密货币市场周期分析 [1] - 讨论会将邀请 @Dentoshi, @matthewbarby 和 @tradermayne 作为嘉宾 [1] Company Development - Breakoutprop 加入 Kraken，为交易者提供更多机会 [1]

Market Analysis - Discussion on identifying the current position within the crypto market cycle is scheduled [1] - TraderMayne will be a special guest, providing insights on market analysis [1] Company Development - BreakoutProp is being acquired by Kraken, expanding opportunities for traders [1]

Market Cycle Analysis - The crypto market cycle typically follows a 4-year pattern, with 1-2 years of bull market and 2-3 years of bear market [4] - The crypto market is nearing the end of the bull phase, with Bitcoin having realized most of its gains and capital rotating into large-cap altcoins like Ethereum and Solana [4][12] - History suggests it may be prudent to start taking profits on Bitcoin, while it might be early to take profits or cut losses on altcoins, depending on individual circumstances [5] Profit-Taking and Loss-Cutting Strategies - Taking profits or cutting losses depends on personal circumstances, including time horizon, wealth level, risk tolerance, and tax jurisdiction [6] - It's unlikely to sell all crypto at the perfect time, so consider whether being early or late is easier to manage [14] - For altcoins, identify key resistance levels using the Bollinger Band indicator on the monthly chart to determine potential profit-taking points [22][23][24] - Partial profit-taking at different resistance levels can mitigate the risk of selling too early [30][31] - The same methodology used for taking profits can be applied to cutting losses, especially if the altcoin has a good chance of recovery [36][37] Risk Management and Capital Allocation - Be cautious about rotating capital into other cryptos or asset classes after taking profits, as there's often overlap between crypto and macro market cycles [41] - Stablecoins and tokenized gold carry counterparty risk, which can be amplified during bear markets [42][43] - Consider holding assets with zero counterparty risk, like Bitcoin or gold, for long-term value preservation [45][46]

Market Trend - Crypto market cycle slows down compared to past cycles [1] - Bitcoin's current uptrend is flatter [1] - Industry expects uptrend in Fall 2025 [1]