Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: EU Semiconductors Company: ASML - ASML has been upgraded to an "Outperform" rating with a price target (PT) of €1,300.00, indicating a potential upside of 32% [2][7][54] - The company is positioned as the top pick in the EU semiconductor sector for 2026, driven by significant demand for DRAM and logic chips, particularly due to AI applications [8][9] Core Insights and Arguments - **DRAM Super Cycle**: The top three DRAM manufacturers are expected to add up to 250,000 wafers per month (kwpm) of new capacity in 2026, with a shift towards the 1c node, which has a lithography intensity of 28%, significantly higher than previous nodes [2][9] - **EUV Intensity**: The transition to the 1c node will increase EUV intensity, with Samsung and Hynix deploying 6 to 7 EUV layers, while Micron will adopt EUV for the first time with 2 to 3 layers [9][12] - **Earnings Growth**: ASML's earnings per share (EPS) growth is projected at an 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2027, surpassing the consensus estimate of 15% [2][54] - **Valuation**: ASML is currently trading at a trough premium over its peers, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 1x compared to a historical average of 1.6x [2][54] Company: Besi - Besi's revenue forecast for 2026 has been cut by 8%, now 10% below consensus, due to slower adoption of fluxless TCB technology for HBM4 production [3][72] - The company maintains an "Outperform" rating but has reduced its price target to €165.00, reflecting near-term downward revisions [3][72] Company: Infineon - Infineon retains an "Outperform" rating, with significant growth expected from its AI server power business, projected to double revenue from €750 million in FY25 to €1.5 billion in FY26 [4][7] - Long-term growth is anticipated to be driven by power architecture changes, with a potential market share of 30-40% and revenue reaching €5 billion by 2030 [4][7] Additional Important Insights - **China Market Dynamics**: ASML anticipates a significant decline in revenue from China in 2026, but recent trends suggest a slower decline than previously expected, driven by strong demand for advanced logic and AI chips [35][36] - **Capacity Expansion**: Advanced logic capacity in China is projected to grow sixfold over the next three years, primarily due to AI chip demand [43][44] - **Hybrid Bonding Technology**: Adoption of hybrid bonding is expected to accelerate in 2027/28, with significant growth anticipated in TSMC's capacity for 3D ICs [77][79] Conclusion The semiconductor industry, particularly in the EU, is poised for significant growth driven by advancements in DRAM and logic technologies, with ASML leading the charge. While Besi faces challenges, Infineon is well-positioned for growth in the AI sector. The dynamics in the Chinese market and the adoption of new technologies will also play crucial roles in shaping the industry's future.