And speaking of AI, more than $61 billion has flowed into data center deals this year, according to S&P Global. And what they say was a global construction frenzy. So, could all of that spending make data investment the new macro hero of the economy.Joining me now is Paul Grunwald. He is the global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. Paul, um, a lot of excitement around this.How durable is it. How sensitive does this make so many different companies in the economy to even some slight fluctuations in the ...

Core Insights - OpenAI's upcoming GPT model and the associated data center expansion are expected to significantly impact the competitive positioning of the chip maker in the market [1] Group 1: OpenAI's GPT Model - The new GPT model is anticipated to drive demand for advanced chips, which could enhance the chip maker's market share and revenue potential [1] - Analysts suggest that the performance and capabilities of the new GPT model will be critical in determining the chip maker's competitive advantage [1] Group 2: Data Center Buildout - The expansion of data centers is seen as a strategic move that will support the increased computational needs driven by AI applications [1] - This buildout is expected to create additional opportunities for the chip maker to supply high-performance chips, further solidifying its position in the industry [1]

Core Insights - The recent advancements in AI models, particularly Google Gemini and Anthropic's Cloud, indicate an acceleration in AI progress, which is positive for the AI industry and companies like Nvidia [1] - OpenAI is expected to release a more efficient model in the coming months, leveraging the scaling techniques demonstrated by competitors [2] - The current AI market is not a bubble; instead, it is at the beginning of a multi-year demand acceleration phase [2][3] AI Model Advancements - Google Gemini and Anthropic's models have shown significant improvements in major benchmarks, suggesting a bullish outlook for AI adoption [1] - OpenAI is set to benefit from Nvidia's new NVL 72 AI server clusters, enhancing its model training capabilities [1] Market Valuation Comparison - AI stocks are currently trading at 25 to 30 times earnings, which are believed to be understated, contrasting sharply with the dot-com bubble where stocks traded at 100 times forward earnings [4] Data Center Buildout Cycle - The data center capacity leasing has seen an unprecedented increase, with more capacity leased in the September quarter than in the entire previous year [6] - Major hyperscalers, including Microsoft and Amazon, are planning to double their data center capacity over the next four quarters due to overwhelming demand [8] Investment Behavior - The investment behavior in AI is not reckless; companies are strategically building data center capacity in response to actual demand from startups and enterprises [8][9] - The Nvidia and OpenAI deal is still in the finalization stage, indicating that many anticipated investments have yet to materialize [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry has experienced significant volatility, driven by the demand for AI infrastructure and data center buildouts, with major companies like NVIDIA, Amazon, and Microsoft leading the charge [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The release of China's DeepSeek large language model raised concerns about potential cuts in infrastructure spending by hyperscalers, but first-quarter earnings showed an increase in spending by companies like Amazon and Microsoft [2]. - There are ongoing questions about a potential infrastructure glut, but the current buildout is still in progress, indicating growth opportunities for semiconductor stocks [3]. Group 2: Company Highlights - **Marvell Technology**: Specializes in application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) crucial for data center operations, with a focus on high-margin contracts that support AI infrastructure. The stock has risen 23% since its first-quarter earnings report but remains about 30% below the consensus price target of $96.33 [4][5][7]. - **Broadcom**: Plays a vital role in AI infrastructure by providing connectivity solutions and custom AI accelerators. The stock has recovered to an all-time high after initial declines following earnings, indicating strong market confidence [8][9][10]. - **Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)**: Is positioning itself to capture market share from NVIDIA with its new Instinct MI325X accelerator, which has superior memory capacity. AMD's stock has increased over 24% in the last month, reflecting positive investor sentiment ahead of upcoming earnings [12][13][14].