Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, reported sales were $4.8 billion, adjusted operating profit was $455 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.34, reflecting a year-over-year decline largely due to lower volumes in higher-margin CSA residential and light commercial businesses [16][17] - Total company organic sales were down about 1% for the full year, with a 9% decline in organic growth in Q4, partially offset by a 3% tailwind from foreign currency translation [16][18] - Free cash flow for Q4 was approximately $900 million, with full-year free cash flow at about $2.1 billion, aligning with expectations [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CSA segment had a challenging quarter with organic sales down 17%, while commercial sales were up 12%, but this was offset by a nearly 40% decline in residential sales [18] - The CSE segment saw organic sales down 2%, with commercial up mid-single digits, but residential and light commercial faced mid-single-digit declines [20] - The transportation segment experienced a strong quarter with 10% organic sales growth, driven by exceptional growth in container business [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In China, overall sales were down about 20%, with residential and light commercial down approximately 30%, while commercial in China was down mid-single digits [21] - The residential heating market in Germany, the largest market, continues to be challenging, with expectations of mid- to high-single-digit declines in the overall industry [20][46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on investing in high-return opportunities, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and returning cash to shareholders, with $3.7 billion distributed through buybacks and dividends [5] - The company aims for double-digit growth in commercial HVAC and aftermarket globally, while expecting continued softness in shorter cycle businesses [23] - Strategic initiatives include expanding data center investments, with fourth quarter CSA data center orders up more than 5x, and a focus on technology differentiation [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the short cycle residential and light commercial market softened more than expected in the second half of 2025, but they are positioned for stronger incrementals when these markets recover [4][15] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations of flat to low mid-single-digit organic growth, with a focus on controlling costs and productivity [23][25] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to outgrow markets and deliver best-in-class solutions for customers [15] Other Important Information - The company expects to repurchase about $1.5 billion in shares and anticipates adjusted EPS of approximately $2.80, reflecting high single-digit growth versus 2025 [25][26] - The company has implemented cost actions expected to deliver over $100 million in savings in 2026 [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the CSA margins and drivers? - Management expects CSA margins in Q1 to be close to about 15%, with a slight improvement from Q4 due to lower sales and a favorable tax rate [32] Question: What is the full-year guidance for the CSA residential business? - Management anticipates industry units to be down 10%-15%, with their sales expected to be down high single digits year-over-year, including a low single-digit benefit from pricing [41][43] Question: How are channel inventories in CSA residential? - Management reported that channel inventories are down about 32% year-over-year, aligning with targeted levels [52] Question: What are the expectations for the residential market in China? - Management expects RLC softness to continue in China, with residential sales down about 20% and overall sales in China down about 30% [87] Question: How is the company preparing for the cooling season? - Management emphasized operational agility and readiness to support demand if it picks up, given low inventory levels in the channel [95]

Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call February 5, 2026 2025 Q4 Earnings | February 5, 2026 2 2025 Summary | Sales | $21.7B Organic1 (1%) Y/Y | Q4 orders up >15% | | --- | --- | --- | | Adjusted operating | $3.3B | | | profit1 | (7%) Y/Y | | | Adjusted operating | 15.1% | year | | margin1 | (70bps) Y/Y | expected to be up ~50% | | Adjusted EPS1 | $2.59 | share gains | | | 1% Y/Y | | | | | expected to be up double-digits again in 2026 | | Free cash flow1 | $2.1B | | Highlights • Record CSA commercial orders, up >8 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved an 11% revenue compound annual growth rate since 2020 and a 24% adjusted EPS compound annual growth rate [7] - Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 470 basis points, and free cash flow conversion reached 106% [7] - The fourth quarter saw organic revenue growth of 4%, with adjusted EPS growth of 10% [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Americas Commercial HVAC bookings increased by over 35% year-over-year, with a record Q4 organic bookings [8] - Applied Solutions bookings surged more than 120%, achieving a record book-to-bill ratio of 200% [8] - The services business, accounting for about one-third of enterprise revenue, has maintained a low teens compound annual growth rate since 2020 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, commercial HVAC revenue grew in low double digits, while residential bookings were up mid-single digits but revenues declined mid-teens [11] - EMEA Commercial HVAC bookings were robust, up mid-teens, with revenues up mid-single digits [12] - Asia Pacific faced challenges, particularly in China, with double-digit declines in bookings and revenue [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a purpose-driven strategy focused on energy efficiency and sustainability, positioning itself to meet growing customer demand for smarter energy solutions [4] - Continued investment in innovation, growth, and digital capabilities is expected to drive future growth, particularly in services [10] - The company plans to deploy between $2.8 billion and $3.3 billion in 2026, with a focus on strategic M&A and share repurchases [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a gradual recovery in residential markets and transport refrigeration, with expectations for improved performance in the second half of 2026 [10][17] - The company is optimistic about its backlog and pipeline, indicating strong visibility for future revenues [9][16] - Management remains confident in delivering differentiated long-term value and advancing sustainability initiatives [24] Other Important Information - The company completed or committed approximately $3.2 billion in capital allocation in 2025, including dividends, M&A, and share repurchases [21] - The acquisition of Stellar Energy is expected to enhance capabilities in modular design and meet growing demand for prefabricated cooling systems [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on revenue for Americas Commercial HVAC - Management expects strong growth in the first quarter, around 7%-8%, increasing to low teens in the second half of the year due to strong bookings [26][27] Question: Confidence in residential inventory normalization - Management believes inventory is now at the right level and anticipates a flat to down 5% performance in residential for 2026 [30][31] Question: Margin pressure in Q4 and future expectations - Management indicated that margins were impacted by residential deleverage but expects to see improvements in 2026 with a target of 25% or higher organic incrementals [53][54] Question: Positioning in the data center market - Management confirmed strong demand in the data center vertical and emphasized ongoing innovation in thermal management systems [57][59] Question: Pricing dynamics in the residential market - Management noted that pricing has not faded, and any declines in residential revenue are primarily due to volume rather than pricing [92][103]

Core Insights - Nvidia has introduced new, more efficient racks that could reduce the reliance on cold water systems for cooling excess heat in data centers [1] Group 1 - The new racks are designed to enhance energy efficiency in data centers [1] - This innovation may lead to a shift in cooling technology preferences within the industry [1] - The development aligns with broader trends towards sustainability and energy conservation in data center operations [1]

Market Overview - Stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow reaching a record high and aiming for its first-ever close above 49,000, driven by a nearly 3% gain in Amazon [1] - Energy stocks tied to the ouster of Venezuela's president lost momentum, with Chevron shares dropping more than 3% after a prior session increase of 5%, making it the worst-performing stock in the Dow [1] Company Highlights - Nvidia shares saw a modest increase after CEO Jensen Huang announced that the company's next-generation semiconductors are in "full production," which may significantly reduce data center cooling requirements [1] - Boeing was highlighted as a top stock pick for 2026 by Bernstein, with an increased price target of $277 per share from $267, citing improvements in its defense business and expected sharp rises in free cash flow [1] Additional Stocks Covered - Other stocks mentioned in the rapid-fire segment included Brinker International, Shake Shack, D.R. Horton, Vistra Corp, Halliburton, and SLB [1]

Core Insights - Johnson Controls (JCI) stock experienced a decline due to concerns that Nvidia's new Rubin chip platform could significantly lower cooling requirements in data centers, potentially affecting HVAC companies' future performance [1] - The selloff also impacted other major HVAC players, including Trane Technologies (TT) and Carrier Global (CARR), as investors reacted to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's comments at CES 2026 [1] Group 1: Impact of Nvidia's Rubin Chip Platform - Nvidia's Vera Rubin chip platform is expected to have similar cooling needs as the Grace Blackwell chip, despite increased power demands, indicating that "no water chillers are necessary for datacenters" due to advancements in liquid cooling [2] - Barclays analyst Julian Mitchell highlighted that companies focused on space cooling, chillers, and air handling with limited involvement in liquid cooling could be particularly affected [3] Group 2: Company Exposure to Data Center Cooling Changes - Johnson Controls has a low-double-digit percentage of total sales from data centers, making it one of the most exposed HVAC providers to the changes in cooling requirements [3] - Trane Technologies derives approximately 10% of its sales from data centers, while Carrier Global has about 5% exposure, both of which could face challenges from reduced chiller intensity in future data center designs [4] Group 3: Potential Beneficiaries - nVent Electric (NVT) may benefit from these developments as it has no presence in space cooling, chillers, or air handling, but holds a strong position in datacenter liquid cooling [5] - Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is also positioned to benefit due to its strong historical presence in precision air cooling and a solid position in liquid cooling [5]

Core Insights - Johnson Controls International plc reported strong fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.26, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.20 [1] - The company achieved quarterly revenue of $6.44 billion, exceeding the forecast of $6.32 billion [1] Quarterly Metrics - Orders increased by 7% year-over-year, driven by strong demand in the Americas, which offset weakness in China [2] - Fourth-quarter sales rose by 3%, with organic sales up by 4%; for the entire year, sales increased by 3% and organic sales climbed by 6% [2] Financial Performance - Johnson Controls experienced double-digit EPS growth and reported a record backlog of $15 billion, reflecting a 13% increase [3] - Adjusted gross profit for the quarter rose by 4% to $2.365 billion, with adjusted gross margin expanding to 36.7% from 36.3% year-over-year [3] Sales Across Geographies - In the Americas, quarterly sales reached $4.325 billion, a 1% year-over-year increase, with organic sales up by 3% [4] - EMEA sales for the quarter were $1.3 billion, marking a 13% increase compared to the previous year [4] - APAC sales declined by 3% year-over-year to $780 million, primarily due to lower volumes in China [5] Outlook - The company anticipates first-quarter adjusted EPS of 83 cents, slightly above the analyst estimate of 82 cents [6] - For fiscal 2026, Johnson Controls projects adjusted EPS of $4.55, significantly higher than the $3.74 analyst estimate, driven by increasing needs in data center cooling and decarbonization [6] - Johnson Controls shares rose by 8.95% to $120.95 following the earnings report [6]