for more on the metals trade. Daniel Galley, TD Cowan, commodity strategy uh director. And and Daniel, can you tell me for sure that there's uh that there's nothing uh technical or or short covering or nothing like that going on with silver.All the conspiracy theorists think that I mean, it reminds me I saw $50 silver 30 whenever it was. I I I can't even do the math. I'm so old.But uh you know during the Hunt Brothers what was that 19 when was that 1980 or something. >> 25 years. >> Yeah. Yeah.Exactly. >> A ...

Core Insights - 2024 is characterized as the year of "higher for longer," while 2025 is anticipated to be known as the year of the "Debasement Trade" [2] Group 1 - The economic landscape is shifting, indicating a significant change in investment strategies and market dynamics [2] - The term "Debasement Trade" suggests a focus on assets that may benefit from currency devaluation or inflationary pressures [2]

Market Overview - The year was characterized by high-conviction bets and rapid reversals across various markets, including bonds, currencies, and stocks [1] - Investors engaged in significant bets on political shifts, inflated balance sheets, and speculative narratives, leading to both substantial gains and losses [2][3] Cryptocurrency Trends - The Trump brand initially drove momentum in the cryptocurrency market, with various tokens launched by Trump family members experiencing significant but short-lived rallies [4][5] - By December 23, Trump's memecoin had dropped over 80% from its January high, while Melania Trump's token fell nearly 99% [6] - The volatility in crypto assets highlighted the speculative nature of the market, where political momentum could not shield investments from core market patterns [7] Defence Stocks Surge - A geopolitical shift led to a significant rise in European defence stocks, with companies like Rheinmetall AG and Leonardo SpA seeing year-to-date gains of approximately 150% and over 90%, respectively [10] - Asset managers, previously hesitant to invest in defence due to ESG concerns, began to redefine their mandates and invest heavily in the sector [11][12] - A Bloomberg basket of European defence stocks rose over 70% for the year, indicating a major shift in capital allocation towards defence as a public good [12] Debasement Trade Narrative - Heavy debt loads in major economies prompted investors to seek refuge in gold and alternative assets, leading to the emergence of the "debasement trade" narrative [13] - In October, both gold and Bitcoin reached record highs amid concerns over the US fiscal outlook and a prolonged government shutdown [14] - Despite the initial rise, Bitcoin later slumped, and the dollar stabilized, illustrating the complexities of the debasement trade [15][16] South Korean Stock Market - South Korea's benchmark equity index surged over 70% in 2025, driven by President Lee Jae Myung's efforts to enhance capital markets [18] - Foreign investment increased significantly, while local retail investors remained net sellers, indicating a disconnect between domestic sentiment and foreign capital inflows [20] Japanese Bonds - The "widowmaker" trade against Japanese bonds turned profitable in 2025 as yields surged, driven by interest rate hikes and increased government spending [26][27] - The benchmark 10-year JGB yields surpassed 2%, marking levels not seen in decades, while the overall bond market faced significant declines [28][29] Credit Market Dynamics - The credit market in 2025 experienced a series of smaller collapses, exposing poor lending practices and leading to significant losses for investors [40][41] - Companies like Saks Global and New Fortress Energy faced severe financial difficulties, prompting a reevaluation of credit risk and lending standards [41][42] Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - Following Donald Trump's re-election, shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac surged by 367% from the start of the year to their September high, driven by optimism regarding potential privatization [34][35] - The possibility of an IPO valuing the companies at around $500 billion further fueled investor interest, despite ongoing skepticism about the timeline for such a move [35][36] Turkish Carry Trade Collapse - The Turkish carry trade, initially favored by investors, collapsed following political unrest, leading to significant outflows from Turkish lira-denominated assets [37][39] - By December 23, the lira had weakened by 17% against the dollar, highlighting the risks associated with high-yield investments in politically unstable environments [39]

Group 1: Trump-Linked Crypto Assets - Trump-linked assets experienced initial momentum due to political support but ultimately faced significant declines, with Trump's memecoin down over 80% from its January high and Melania's token down nearly 99% [2][3] - The Trump family actively engaged in the crypto space, launching various tokens and promoting them, which initially created a compelling investment narrative [4][6] - Despite the political backing, the underlying volatility and speculative nature of crypto assets led to substantial losses, highlighting the risks associated with such investments [1][6] Group 2: European Defense Stocks - A geopolitical shift has resulted in significant gains for European defense stocks, with companies like Rheinmetall AG and Leonardo SpA seeing year-to-date rallies of approximately 150% and over 90%, respectively [12][14] - The change in sentiment towards defense stocks has prompted asset managers to redefine their investment mandates, moving away from previous ESG concerns [13][14] - A Bloomberg basket of European defense stocks increased by more than 70% for the year, indicating a strong market response to increased government spending on defense [14] Group 3: AI Trade and Market Dynamics - Scion Asset Management's disclosure of protective put options in Nvidia and Palantir highlighted skepticism regarding the high valuations in the AI sector, with Nvidia's strike price at 47% below its recent close [8][9] - The market reaction to Burry's trade led to a temporary decline in Nvidia and Palantir stocks, illustrating the fragility of investor confidence in high-growth tech stocks [10][11] - The AI trade narrative has been characterized by rapid price movements and speculative behavior, raising concerns about sustainability as market dynamics shift [11] Group 4: Japanese Bonds - The Japanese bond market, previously seen as a "widowmaker" for short-sellers, has turned favorable for bearish investors as yields surged, with benchmark 10-year JGBs exceeding 2% for the first time in decades [27][28] - The shift in yields has prompted discussions among fund managers about selling JGBs, indicating a potential long-term bearish outlook on Japanese government bonds [28] Group 5: Credit Market Dynamics - The credit markets in 2025 faced challenges from a series of smaller collapses, exposing weaknesses in borrower practices and leading to significant losses for lenders [39][41] - Notable cases included Saks Global restructuring $2.2 billion in bonds and New Fortress Energy's bonds losing over half their value, highlighting the risks associated with lax lending standards [40][41] - The trend of "creditor-on-creditor violence" emerged, where funds that broke ranks with their peers on financing decisions reaped substantial rewards, demonstrating the competitive nature of credit markets [29][30]

Industry Insights - The gold market has experienced a significant boom, with the Gabelli Gold Fund up 177% this year, indicating strong investor interest and performance in the sector [1] - The price of gold has reached unprecedented levels, with discussions around potential future prices exceeding $4,500, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and demand [2] - The narrative surrounding gold has changed, with it being viewed as a non-replicable asset and a safe haven amidst concerns about the dollar's stability, inflation, and rising national debt [4][5] Market Drivers - Central banks and international agents are increasingly accumulating gold as a hedge against the dollar regime, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors [6][8] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly involving China and Taiwan, are expected to sustain demand for gold as countries seek to diversify away from U.S. dollar treasuries [8] - The combination of debasement trade and dollarization trade is influencing gold prices, with expectations that these trends will continue into the next year [5][7] Company Performance - Gold mining companies, such as Newmont, are considered undervalued, with projections indicating they could generate around $10 per share in free cash flow at current metal prices, while trading at approximately $105 per share [14] - The gold mining sector is seen as a way to gain exposure to gold while also benefiting from the income generated by these companies, despite historical concerns about capital stewardship [15][16] - The cyclical nature of the gold mining business has led to past challenges, but current market conditions may provide a more favorable environment for these companies moving forward [16][17]

Core Insights - Precious metals like gold and silver are experiencing historic highs, with gold prices rising 70% and silver prices increasing 130% this year, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [2][3] - Simultaneously, tech stocks, particularly in the Nasdaq Composite, have surged approximately 21% year-to-date, driven by strong performance from major tech companies and investor enthusiasm for AI technologies [5][6] Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver have reached all-time highs, with gold surpassing previous records and silver following closely behind [2] - The rally in precious metals is driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of a shift towards easier monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3][4] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, and inflows into precious-metal ETFs are contributing to rising asset prices, reflecting investor interest in safe-haven assets amid concerns over fiat currencies [4] Group 2: Tech Stocks - The Nasdaq Composite has rebounded after a softer start to December, with recent sentiment around AI economics helping to alleviate concerns about capital expenditures [6] - The last time gold and growth stocks moved in tandem was during the pandemic-era liquidity surge, highlighting a historical correlation between safe-haven assets and risk assets during times of economic uncertainty [7] - Over the past five years, the Nasdaq has increased over 80%, while gold has gained over 130%, showcasing the volatility and potential profitability of these trades [8]

Gold prices hit an apex in October before taking a breather as 2025 winds down — a chance for investors to buy the dip. This could be a golden opportunity to get exposure to a pair of ETFs before another rally ensues: the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) and the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM). Gold prices are up over 50% year-to-date, giving existing investors an opportunity to wind down their positions or, for bullish "diamond hand†investors, an opportunity to continue adding exposure. Market volatility ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have increased over 50% year-to-date, presenting opportunities for both profit-taking and further investment for bullish investors [2] - Central banks have shifted to being net buyers of gold, contributing to the metal's rising share in global reserves and supporting long-term price trends [4] Gold Market Dynamics - The "debasement trade" continues to attract investors to gold as a hard asset, away from fiat currencies [3] - Market volatility ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday highlights gold's role as a safe haven for investors [2] Investment Opportunities - The Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) offers direct gold exposure with the option to convert shares into physical bullion, providing flexibility for investors [6] - The Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) provides indirect exposure through investments in large-cap gold mining companies, which can benefit from rising gold prices [7] Central Bank Influence - Central banks' demand for gold is characterized by relative scale and price insensitivity, making them a primary anchor for gold's long-term price trends [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is believed to have entered a new cycle, as indicated by recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which historically signal the start of a new market phase [2][5]. Market Performance - Emerging markets have risen by 27%, while developed international markets have also increased by 27% [2]. - Gold has surged by 54%, and the PPI ETF, which focuses on real assets, is up 24% [3]. - U.S. banking sectors have benefited from higher interest rates, showing a 19% increase, while the industrial sector (XLI) is up 17% [3]. Portfolio Strategy - Investors are encouraged to evolve their portfolios, moving away from a focus on large-cap tech and growth stocks, which have dominated the market for the past five years [4]. - There is a belief that the current economic environment will be characterized by structurally higher inflation, with inflation rates still 50% above the Federal Reserve's target [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing interest in gold as central banks diversify away from the U.S. dollar and the role of Tether in the gold market through tokenization [2][5][8] - Tether has made significant investments in gold-linked equities and is positioning itself to support a gold-backed stablecoin, Tether Gold [4][13] Tether's Strategy - Tether controls $180 billion in reserves and has recently invested over $100 million in gold-linked equity, focusing on companies involved in gold tokenization [4][5] - The company is accumulating gold reserves to support its stablecoin and hedge against the declining U.S. dollar [5][13] Market Dynamics - Central banks are quietly diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, and Tether's actions reflect a broader trend of seeking alternatives to traditional currencies [3][8] - The rise of regional trade blocs and new payment systems is contributing to the erosion of the U.S. dollar's dominance [3] Investment Opportunities - Tether's investments include stakes in various gold royalty companies, such as Elemental Royalty and Gold Royalty, indicating a strategic move towards gold assets [10][12] - Elemental Royalty is projected to generate significant cash flow, with expectations of $80 million in revenue by 2026, making it an attractive investment opportunity [18][22] Valuation Considerations - The current trading price of Elemental Royalty is around $13, which is below the estimated fair value of $18.80 based on cash flow projections [21][22] - The potential for a Nasdaq listing could enhance visibility and attract more investors, further supporting the stock's valuation [22][23] Risks and Challenges - Elemental Royalty's revenue is partially derived from base metals, which may not command the same multiples as precious metals, introducing some uncertainty [24][26] - The complexity of the merger and potential market fluctuations in gold and copper prices could impact future performance [25][26]