Research Analysts Asia Economics Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: Supportive measures after the 4th Plenum Despite the 4.8% growth in Q3, Beijing will have to face that reality growth headwinds have been building up and will almost surely strengthen in Q4. The government has already made some efforts on the fiscal front to support demand over the past couple of months. However, these efforts have not been enough due to seemingly resilient growth so far, the priority placed on drafting the 15th Five-year pla ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weaker-than-expected performance in loan and credit data for April, suggesting a cautious outlook for investment in the sector Core Insights - Total social financing (TSF) flows and new RMB loans in April were below market expectations, primarily due to a slowdown in corporate loan demand, with bill financing indicating soft demand [1][4] - M2 growth increased significantly in April, influenced by a low base from the previous year, while M1 growth moderated, reflecting substantial funds held in the fiscal account [3][10] Summary by Sections Loan and Credit Data - New RMB loans reported at RMB 280 billion in April, significantly lower than the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 695 billion and GS forecast of RMB 600 billion [2] - Outstanding RMB loan growth was 7.2% year-on-year in April, a decrease from 7.4% in March, with corporate loans showing a notable decline [9] Social Financing - Total TSF flow was RMB 1163 billion in April, below the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 1397 billion and GS forecast of RMB 1350 billion, indicating weaker loan extension [2][4] - TSF stock growth accelerated to 8.7% year-on-year in April, compared to 8.4% in March, with a month-on-month growth of 8.8% [3][8] Monetary Aggregates - M2 growth reached 8.0% year-on-year in April, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of 7.2%, while M1 growth slightly decreased to 1.5% year-on-year [3][10] - Fiscal deposits showed a significant increase, accumulating an RMB 1190 billion surplus year-to-date, compared to an RMB 187 billion deficit last year [10]