Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) with a Buy rating and a target price of TRY373 per share, implying approximately 43% upside potential [6][22][30]. Core Views - Anadolu Group Holding is a consumer conglomerate with strong exposure to the defensive FMCG sector, primarily driven by its key businesses in beer, soft drinks, and food retail, which accounted for 93% of the group's revenue and EBITDA in 2024 [2][13][36]. - The company has demonstrated solid growth execution, with revenues and EBITDA growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.7% and 12.2%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [3][48]. - The group's net debt/EBITDA ratio has significantly improved, decreasing from 2.3x in 2019 to 0.5x by the end of 2024, indicating strong deleveraging and balance sheet strength [4][18][66]. - The current NAV discount of AGHOL has narrowed from an average of 77% in 2019 to 35%, which is viewed as unjustified given the company's defensive positioning and growth potential [5][21][40]. Summary by Sections Investment Case - AGHOL's portfolio is resilient, with a strong focus on defensive FMCG sectors, which are less susceptible to macroeconomic volatility [13][36]. - The company has a leading position in the Turkish market, with significant stakes in Anadolu Efes, Coca-Cola Icecek, and Migros, all of which have strong growth prospects [2][13][36]. Financial Performance - The retail and soft drink segments are the primary growth drivers, with revenue CAGRs of approximately 14% and 13%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [3][14][49]. - The beer segment has faced challenges, growing at a CAGR of 7.1% over the past five years due to external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions [55]. Balance Sheet Strength - The group's net debt has decreased significantly, with a notable improvement in cash flow generation capabilities, supporting a comfortable leverage position [4][18][66]. - The deleveraging trend is primarily driven by Migros, which has transitioned to a net cash position [70]. Dividend Profile - AGHOL has seen a substantial increase in dividends received, rising from TRY0.8 billion (USD46 million) in 2022 to TRY2.7 billion (USD81 million) in 2024, with a dividends-paid-to-received ratio reaching 52% in 2025 year-to-date [19][77][80]. Valuation - The target NAV estimate for AGHOL is TRY90.9 billion, with a 25% holding company discount applied to arrive at the target price of TRY373 per share [6][22][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for McDonald's and Domino's, while Starbucks and Shake Shack are rated as "Hold" [4][46]. Core Insights - The US restaurant sector outlook is tempered due to macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and changing consumer behaviors, leading to a reduction in adjusted net earnings estimates by approximately 4% for 2025-26 [2][3]. - Same-store sales (SSS) are expected to decline by an average of 90 basis points year-over-year for 2025-26, primarily due to affordability issues affecting lower-income consumers, although there is some mitigation from higher-income diners trading down for value [2][3]. - The report emphasizes a preference for defensive, value-driven leaders with operational agility, highlighting McDonald's and Domino's as favorable investments due to their resilient franchise revenue streams and scalable operating models [3][25]. Summary by Company McDonald's - McDonald's is recognized for its resilient revenue stream, primarily from its 95% franchised model, and its broad geographic footprint, which provides diversification [7][25]. - The target price for McDonald's is revised to USD 343.00, reflecting a 10.2% upside potential [4][46]. - The company is expected to benefit from a multi-layered pricing strategy and digital transformation initiatives, which are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement [25][26]. Domino's - Domino's is noted for its strong franchise model and predictable income streams, allowing for continued investment in growth and innovation [7][30]. - The target price for Domino's is set at USD 540.00, indicating a 15.7% upside potential [4][46]. - The company is expected to leverage its marketing and distribution expertise to drive international growth, particularly in markets like China and India [30][31]. Starbucks - Starbucks is undergoing tactical changes aimed at long-term turnaround, with a focus on enhancing brand value and customer experience [7][37]. - The target price for Starbucks is lowered to USD 84.00, reflecting a 3.1% upside potential [4][46]. - Despite challenges, the company is expected to stabilize its same-store sales declines and improve customer engagement through operational initiatives [37][49]. Shake Shack - Shake Shack is recognized for its differentiated brand equity and commitment to high-quality menu items, with a solid development pipeline expected to drive growth [7][42]. - The target price for Shake Shack is revised to USD 89.00, indicating a 6.9% upside potential [4][46]. - The company faces headwinds from competition and macroeconomic concerns, but it is positioned to capitalize on its brand strength and market opportunities [42][50].

Core Insights - Dollar General's focus on discounted essentials positions it as a strong defensive play for 2025, with a recent upgrade to a "buy" rating and a price target of $110, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the current share price of $86.85 [1] Financial Performance - Dollar General reported a net sales increase of 4.5% year over year in the fourth quarter, with same-store sales rising by 1.2%, suggesting that the stock's decline over the past year may be exaggerated [2] - The company's fourth-quarter operating profit was halved to $294 million, impacted by store closures and an impairment charge for its pOpshelf business, highlighting the need for improved profitability [3] Strategic Focus - Management's back-to-basics strategy aims to enhance inventory efficiency and reduce costs, which is expected to support profitability improvements [3] - The impact of tariffs on foreign imports could benefit Dollar General, as higher prices for imported goods may drive consumers to seek value, aligning with the company's commitment to providing affordable options [4] Market Position - Dollar General's stock is trading at 15 times this year's earnings estimate and offers a forward dividend yield of 2.71%, indicating relatively good value [4] - The company's historical resilience through various economic cycles suggests it is well-positioned to navigate current challenges, with potential for stock price appreciation towards the analyst's target within the next year [5]