Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Anadolu Group Holding (AGHOL) with a Buy rating and a target price of TRY373 per share, implying approximately 43% upside potential [6][22][30]. Core Views - Anadolu Group Holding is a consumer conglomerate with strong exposure to the defensive FMCG sector, primarily driven by its key businesses in beer, soft drinks, and food retail, which accounted for 93% of the group's revenue and EBITDA in 2024 [2][13][36]. - The company has demonstrated solid growth execution, with revenues and EBITDA growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.7% and 12.2%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [3][48]. - The group's net debt/EBITDA ratio has significantly improved, decreasing from 2.3x in 2019 to 0.5x by the end of 2024, indicating strong deleveraging and balance sheet strength [4][18][66]. - The current NAV discount of AGHOL has narrowed from an average of 77% in 2019 to 35%, which is viewed as unjustified given the company's defensive positioning and growth potential [5][21][40]. Summary by Sections Investment Case - AGHOL's portfolio is resilient, with a strong focus on defensive FMCG sectors, which are less susceptible to macroeconomic volatility [13][36]. - The company has a leading position in the Turkish market, with significant stakes in Anadolu Efes, Coca-Cola Icecek, and Migros, all of which have strong growth prospects [2][13][36]. Financial Performance - The retail and soft drink segments are the primary growth drivers, with revenue CAGRs of approximately 14% and 13%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [3][14][49]. - The beer segment has faced challenges, growing at a CAGR of 7.1% over the past five years due to external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions [55]. Balance Sheet Strength - The group's net debt has decreased significantly, with a notable improvement in cash flow generation capabilities, supporting a comfortable leverage position [4][18][66]. - The deleveraging trend is primarily driven by Migros, which has transitioned to a net cash position [70]. Dividend Profile - AGHOL has seen a substantial increase in dividends received, rising from TRY0.8 billion (USD46 million) in 2022 to TRY2.7 billion (USD81 million) in 2024, with a dividends-paid-to-received ratio reaching 52% in 2025 year-to-date [19][77][80]. Valuation - The target NAV estimate for AGHOL is TRY90.9 billion, with a 25% holding company discount applied to arrive at the target price of TRY373 per share [6][22][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for McDonald's and Domino's, while Starbucks and Shake Shack are rated as "Hold" [4][46]. Core Insights - The US restaurant sector outlook is tempered due to macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and changing consumer behaviors, leading to a reduction in adjusted net earnings estimates by approximately 4% for 2025-26 [2][3]. - Same-store sales (SSS) are expected to decline by an average of 90 basis points year-over-year for 2025-26, primarily due to affordability issues affecting lower-income consumers, although there is some mitigation from higher-income diners trading down for value [2][3]. - The report emphasizes a preference for defensive, value-driven leaders with operational agility, highlighting McDonald's and Domino's as favorable investments due to their resilient franchise revenue streams and scalable operating models [3][25]. Summary by Company McDonald's - McDonald's is recognized for its resilient revenue stream, primarily from its 95% franchised model, and its broad geographic footprint, which provides diversification [7][25]. - The target price for McDonald's is revised to USD 343.00, reflecting a 10.2% upside potential [4][46]. - The company is expected to benefit from a multi-layered pricing strategy and digital transformation initiatives, which are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement [25][26]. Domino's - Domino's is noted for its strong franchise model and predictable income streams, allowing for continued investment in growth and innovation [7][30]. - The target price for Domino's is set at USD 540.00, indicating a 15.7% upside potential [4][46]. - The company is expected to leverage its marketing and distribution expertise to drive international growth, particularly in markets like China and India [30][31]. Starbucks - Starbucks is undergoing tactical changes aimed at long-term turnaround, with a focus on enhancing brand value and customer experience [7][37]. - The target price for Starbucks is lowered to USD 84.00, reflecting a 3.1% upside potential [4][46]. - Despite challenges, the company is expected to stabilize its same-store sales declines and improve customer engagement through operational initiatives [37][49]. Shake Shack - Shake Shack is recognized for its differentiated brand equity and commitment to high-quality menu items, with a solid development pipeline expected to drive growth [7][42]. - The target price for Shake Shack is revised to USD 89.00, indicating a 6.9% upside potential [4][46]. - The company faces headwinds from competition and macroeconomic concerns, but it is positioned to capitalize on its brand strength and market opportunities [42][50].