Core Viewpoint - The Danish brewer is experiencing a decline in earnings as it increasingly shifts its focus towards soft drink offerings due to a decrease in consumer demand for beer [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Earnings have fallen for the company, indicating a challenging financial environment [1] - The reliance on soft drink products is growing as a response to the softening consumer appetite for beer [1] Group 2: Market Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences, with a decline in beer consumption impacting the company's traditional revenue streams [1] - The company is adapting its strategy to focus more on non-alcoholic beverages in light of changing market dynamics [1]

转自：前瞻产业研究院 以下数据及分析来自于前瞻产业研究院啤酒研究小组发布的《中国啤酒行业品牌竞争与消费需求投资预 测分析报告》 行业主要上市公司：华润啤酒(00291.HK);青岛啤酒(600600);百威亚太(01876.HK);重庆啤酒(600132);燕 京啤酒(000729)等 本文核心数据：行业供需分析;行业竞争格局;行业市场规模等 行业概况 1、定义 啤酒是一种以小麦芽和大麦芽为主要原料，并加啤酒花，经过液态糊化和糖化，再经过液态发酵酿制而 成的酒精饮料。 啤酒可根据工艺分类为纯生啤酒、干啤酒、全麦芽啤酒、黑啤酒等。可根据酵母分为顶部发酵啤酒和底 部发酵啤酒。可根据色泽分为淡色啤酒、浓色啤酒和黑啤。从啤酒产品上来说，市场上多数啤酒的酿造 工艺较为接近，产品存在严重同质化。 2、产业链剖析：行业进入成熟期，产业链结构稳简洁 啤酒行业目前在我国已经拥有较为成熟的产业链。上游企业以原材料、酿造设备以及啤酒包装等部分构 成，其中原材料以麦芽、啤酒花、酵母等产品为主。中游为啤酒生产商，目前我国中游啤酒生产商已形 成垄断趋势，市场份额主要由华润啤酒、青岛啤酒、百威亚太、重庆啤酒以及燕京啤酒垄断，五大品牌 产量 ...

Gear up for game day, Sunday, February 8, 2026, with ultimate fan experiences, beer, wings, whiskey, and more at SweetWater Brewing Co., Montauk Brewing Co., Breckenridge Brewery, Blue Point Brewing Co., 10 Barrel Brewing Co., Hop Valley Brewing Co., Terrapin Beer Co., and Atwater BreweryNEW YORK, Feb. 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tilray Brands, Inc. (“Tilray”) (Nasdaq: TLRY; TSX: TLRY), a global lifestyle and consumer packaged goods company, is gearing up for the biggest Sunday in sports as its craft beer ...

Beer sales in Germany declined at their steepest annual rate last year since the data series began in 1993, further extending a long-term downward trend. Figures from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) show breweries and beer warehouses sold around 7.8 billion litres of beer in 2025, down 6% on a year earlier. Destatis highlighted the broader contraction in beer sales in Germany over the past decade. Last year, beer sales were 18.9% lower than in 2015, representing a reduction of 1.8 billion lit ...

Core Insights - The cost to host a Super Bowl party for 10 people is estimated at $140 this year, reflecting a $2 increase from last year, which is a 1.6% rise, slower than the grocery inflation rate of 2.4% [1][6] Food Prices Overview - Chicken wings have seen a price decrease of 2.8% from last year, making them one of the most affordable snacks. Other items like tortilla chips, avocados, carrots, peppers, and frozen pizza have also become less expensive [4][6] - In contrast, shrimp prices have increased by 8.1% to $9.10 per pound, while beef prices rose to $10.01 per pound, marking a 16.4% year-over-year increase [5][6] - Vegetable prices, including cherry tomatoes, celery, broccoli, and cauliflower, have also risen, along with salsa and onion-flavored dips, attributed to labor costs [6] Wage Impact - Average hourly wages have increased by 3.8% to $31.99, providing consumers with more financial flexibility to host parties despite rising food costs [3][2]

Group 1: Kimly Limited - Kimly Limited is a leading coffee shop operator in Singapore with 86 food outlets and 176 stalls, achieving a revenue of S$322.1 million in FY2025, a 0.9% YoY increase, while net profit remained stable at S$33.3 million [2][4] - The company has a strong balance sheet with S$68.1 million in cash and only S$5.0 million in debt, resulting in a net cash position of over S$63 million, allowing for potential dividend growth [3][5] - Despite a decrease in free cash flow to S$55.3 million due to a S$30.0 million investment in property acquisitions, Kimly is set to distribute a total annual dividend of S$0.020 per share, yielding approximately 4.7% at a share price of S$0.43 [4][5] Group 2: Fraser & Neave - Fraser & Neave (F&N) reported a 7.4% YoY revenue increase to S$2.32 billion in FY2025, driven by strong sales in canned milk and beverage expansion, although attributable profit declined by 6.4% to S$141.3 million due to restructuring costs [6][7] - Free cash flow fell sharply to S$7.3 million from S$110.2 million as capital expenditure doubled to S$223.9 million, with funds directed towards long-term growth projects [7][8] - F&N maintained its total annual dividend at S$0.055 per share, offering a trailing yield of approximately 3.4% at a share price of S$1.60, but the sustainability of the dividend is under scrutiny due to cash flow pressures [8][9] Group 3: Thai Beverage - Thai Beverage, the largest beverage company in Southeast Asia, reported a 2% decline in revenue to THB 333.3 billion and a 7% drop in net profit to THB 25.4 billion for FY2025, largely due to a revenue slide in the Vietnamese beer market [10][11] - Despite falling profits, Thai Beverage raised its dividend, declaring a total of THB 0.62 per share, supported by a 13% increase in free cash flow to THB 32.4 billion [11][12] - The company holds THB 43.8 billion in cash against THB 227.5 billion in total debt, indicating the weakest balance sheet among the three companies, but the dividend sustainability is cautiously optimistic due to improved cash generation [12][13] Group 4: Investment Insights - The analysis highlights the importance of free cash flow over headline profits for sustainable dividend distributions, with Kimly being the most secure option due to its strong cash position [15][16] - Thai Beverage demonstrates operational strength with improved cash flow supporting a dividend increase, while F&N is in a transition phase requiring monitoring of its capital investments [16][17] - Investors should consider payout coverage, balance sheet resilience, and management's growth investments when evaluating these stocks, with Kimly offering the highest confidence level [17]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Consumer Sector - **Key Insights**: The sector shows signs of consumption recovery despite a near-term property market downturn. Valuation remains attractive, approximately 1 standard deviation below 10-year averages, indicating that a consumption recovery is not yet priced in [2][21]. Consumer Staples - **Baijiu**: Anticipated demand support for mid-end baijiu due to easing alcohol bans and private consumption growth. Companies are expected to accelerate channel transformations for sustainable EPS growth [3][8]. - **Beer**: Premiumization continues through product diversification and in-home channel expansion, despite on-trade softness. CR Beer expects low-single-digit volume growth in 2025, with Heineken volumes projected to grow by 20% YoY [3][8]. - **Dairy**: Liquid milk sales are expected to recover modestly in 2026, driven by marketing and innovation, despite a weak 2025. Fresh milk shows resilience with double-digit growth [3][8]. - **Freshly-Made Beverages (FMB)**: Guming is expected to maintain steady SSSG in 2026 through category expansion and dine-in growth, despite the phase-out of delivery subsidies [3][8][19]. - **Condiments**: Sequentially improving demand is expected, with Haitian focusing on multi-product categories and Jonjee anticipating a cleaner 2026 after a weak 4Q25 [3][8]. Consumer Discretionary - **Home Appliances**: Companies like Midea and Haier expect higher overseas growth compared to domestic markets in 2026. Strategies include price hikes and operational efficiencies [4][10]. - **Jewelry**: Brands with unique designs may consolidate post-VAT reform. Laopu is expected to achieve strong sales growth due to increased focus on value-added services [4][10]. - **Restaurants**: Intense competition leads to divergent strategies, with some companies lowering prices while others upgrade offerings. DPC Dash is on track for expansion despite market uncertainties [4][10]. Stock Implications - **Most Preferred Stocks**: CR Beer, Guming, MIXUE, China Foods, YUM China, among others, are highlighted as preferred investments due to their growth potential [5]. - **Least Preferred Stocks**: Companies like Swellfun, Nongfu, and Gree are noted as less favorable due to various challenges [5]. Key Risks - Risks include demand recovery uncertainties, cost inflation or deflation, and changes in the competitive landscape. These factors could significantly impact the consumer sector's performance [21]. Additional Insights - **Pet Food**: The industry is shifting towards online sales, with over 85% of sales occurring digitally. Competition is intensifying, pushing brands towards innovation and product differentiation [13]. - **Snack Sector**: Rapid category diversification and channel restructuring are creating growth opportunities, particularly through snack discounters [9][12]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China consumer sector.

Industry Overview - The U.S. craft beer industry is experiencing a decline, with closures outpacing openings, leading to a 1% decrease in the number of craft breweries from June 2024 to June 2025, dropping from 9,352 to 9,269 [2] - Smaller distribution-focused microbreweries faced the largest decline at -3%, while taprooms saw a -1% drop, and brewpubs and regional breweries remained unchanged year-over-year [2] - Craft beer volume decreased by 4.1% in the first half of 2025, slightly better than the overall beer market's decline of 4.2% [3] Company Specifics - 4 By 4 Brewing filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on January 15, 2026, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Missouri [7] - The company intends to restructure while remaining operational, with plans to keep its store and taproom in Springfield, Missouri, open and continue hosting scheduled events [5][6] - 4 By 4 Brewing is seeking approximately $250,000 in post-petition financing to sustain operations during the bankruptcy process and has filed a motion to use cash collateral secured by loans to support its restructuring efforts [8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: China Consumer Staples Key Themes and Trends 1. **Cautious Outlook for 2026**: The industry is observing a cautious outlook into 2026, with a focus on the trends surrounding the Chinese New Year (CNY) [2] 2. **Mixed Performance in Beverages**: - Nongfu and Eastroc maintained strong momentum with double-digit growth despite being in a slack season, driven by strong product cycles [1] - Tingyi and UPC beverages experienced a decline in December due to heightened competition, although subsidies for freshly-made drinks have retreated [1] 3. **Beer Demand**: - Overall beer demand remains subdued, particularly in on-trade channels, with Bud China seeing a deeper sequential decline [1] - CR Beer and Chongqing Brewery managed slight volume growth, while Tsingtao's volume increased by 12% on easier comparisons [1] 4. **Condiments and Frozen Foods Recovery**: - Haitian reported sustained growth in the mid-single to high-single digits, with a faster quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4 [1] - Anjoy's growth accelerated in December despite a higher base, indicating a favorable setup for Q1 [1] 5. **Dairy Sector Stabilization**: - Liquid milk demand is stabilizing after a period of destocking, with herd downsizing settling at a 4.5% year-over-year decline [1] - Raw milk prices held steady at approximately Rmb3.03/kg in December, with a 3.0% year-over-year decline in average prices for Q4 [1][24] Company-Specific Insights 1. **Yili**: - Management highlighted an improving raw milk supply-demand balance supported by herd downsizing, although demand remains lackluster [2] - The company is focusing on channel inventory discipline and targeted marketing to sustain performance [8] 2. **Haitian**: - Noted a sequential acceleration in Q4 and sees potential for consumption upgrading in chained restaurants [2] 3. **Anjoy**: - Resumed double-digit sales growth since September, driven by enhanced execution and channel strategies [8] 4. **CR Beer**: - Expects no incremental SG&A investment impact in 2026, focusing on maintaining margins amid cost pressures [8] Market Dynamics 1. **Expense Outlook**: - The expense outlook remains cautious, with a focus on margin expansion for beer, dairy, and food & beverage sectors amid diminishing cost benefits [8] 2. **Channel Health**: - Companies are making efforts to sustain channel health throughout 2025, which is expected to underpin recovery in 2026 [8] 3. **New Product Cycles**: - A sequentially improving outlook for both Yili and Mengniu is anticipated, supporting volume and margin accretion [8] Investment Preferences 1. **Preferred Sectors**: - Beverage, pet foods, and condiments/prepared foods are highlighted as sectors with potential for growth [9] 2. **Key Stock Ideas**: - Recommendations include Eastroc, Nongfu, Weilong for visible growth, and Haitian H-shares/Anjoy as early beneficiaries of on-trade recovery [9] Additional Insights 1. **Snacks Performance**: - Weilong sustained strong sales growth in December, with vegetable snacks up over 30% year-over-year [1] 2. **Pet Foods**: - China Pet Foods led in year-over-year growth in December, while other covered names weakened compared to previous months [32] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the China consumer staples industry.

Leadership Change - Heineken CEO Dolf van den Brink is stepping down after nearly six years, with his departure effective at the end of May, transitioning to an advisory role for eight months [1][3] - The board has initiated a search for a successor, marking a break from tradition as there is currently no named successor [4] Financial Performance - Heineken is expected to report a 2% to 3% drop in beer volumes in its upcoming full-year earnings report, following a warning in October about annual profit growth being at the lower end of the 4% to 8% forecast range [2] - The company's stock has declined over 25% in the past five years, indicating underperformance compared to rivals [7] Strategic Initiatives - During van den Brink's tenure, Heineken faced historic cost inflation and implemented a cost-cutting and restructuring program to protect margins [4] - The company has focused on marketing beer as a social connector to counter the trend of alcohol moderation among consumers [7] - Heineken has made significant acquisitions in emerging markets, including India, South Africa, and Central America, expanding its footprint beyond Europe [8]