Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump’s pick to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, could be good news for the stock market, at least in the near term. This claim is from Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management, in an interview with CNBC’s Money Movers on January 31.Niles’s reasoning was simple. Warsh believes that AI will be a significant deflationary force (as Warsh wrote in his Wall Street Journal op-ed entitled “The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership”). Therefore, he might bel ...

>> NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS THE PULSE. TOM: GOOD MORNING, WELCOME TO THE PULSE.I'M TOM MACKENZIE. UBS, ONE OF THE BIGGEST GAINERS ON THE STOXX 600 AFTER A GROUP OF CENTER-RIGHT SWISS LAWMAKERS PROPOSE A COMPROMISE ON ITS CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS. IT ALLOWS THE BANK TO USE MORE CONVERTIBLE BONDS TO MEET ITS FUTURE HIGHER REQUIREMENT.JOINING US NOW IS LAURA NOONAN. HOW FAR DOES THIS GO TO ADDRESS THE FEARS THAT UBS WILL HAVE TO RAISE A LOT MORE CAPITAL. LAURA: I WOULD SAY IT IS CERTAINLY POSITIVE NEW ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, specifically analyzing the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Manufacturing PMI Performance**: - The NBS manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 49.4 in August from 49.3 in July, which was below market expectations [1][2][3] - The output sub-index rose to 50.8 from 50.5, while the new orders sub-index increased to 49.5 from 49.4. However, the employment sub-index fell to 47.9 from 48.0 [3][8] 2. **Non-Manufacturing PMI Performance**: - The official non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in August from 50.1 in July, driven primarily by the services sector, which saw its PMI increase to 50.5 from 50.0 [1][9] - The construction PMI notably dropped to 49.1, marking the lowest level since early 2020, attributed to adverse weather conditions [9][10] 3. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - The pharmaceuticals and electronics sectors showed stronger performance, with their output and new orders sub-indexes significantly higher than the overall manufacturing sector [3] - Conversely, sectors such as textiles, apparel, and chemicals reported sub-indexes below 50, indicating contraction [3] 4. **Trade-Related Sub-Indexes**: - The manufacturing new export order sub-index edged up, reflecting some improvement in trade conditions [4] 5. **Deflationary Pressures**: - The report indicates that deflationary pressures are easing, as evidenced by the increase in the price sub-index within the manufacturing PMI. The input cost sub-index rose to 53.3 from 51.5, while output prices increased to 49.1 from 48.3 [8][10] 6. **Impact of Weather Conditions**: - Adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures and heavy rain, have negatively impacted construction activity and overall PMI readings [9][10] 7. **Government Intervention**: - Increased government focus on overcapacity and price competition has contributed to alleviating deflationary pressures [10] 8. **Market Sentiment**: - A recent rally in the Chinese stock market has positively influenced the services PMI, particularly in capital market services, which reported a PMI above 70 for two consecutive months [10] Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes that investors should consider this analysis as one of many factors in their investment decisions [4] - The data presented reflects the current economic conditions and is subject to change, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring [26]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the industry, with industrial production rated at 0, fixed asset investment at -1, and retail sales at +2 [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's industrial production and fixed asset investment missed market expectations, while retail sales showed significant growth, indicating a divergence in economic performance across sectors [1][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policy in stimulating domestic demand, particularly through consumer goods trade-in programs, amidst ongoing deflationary pressures and a prolonged downturn in the property market [1][17]. Summary by Sections Industrial Production - Industrial production (IP) growth moderated to 5.8% year-on-year in May from 6.1% in April, primarily due to slowing export growth linked to increased US tariffs [8][11]. - Sequentially, IP is estimated to have contracted by 0.1% month-on-month non-annualized in May [8]. - Key sectors such as electrical machinery and chemical manufacturing experienced slower output growth, overshadowing gains in automobile production [8][11]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May from 3.6% in April, driven mainly by declines in infrastructure and property investments [10][11]. - Manufacturing investment growth remained robust at 7.8% year-on-year in May, contrasting with the overall slowdown in FAI [10]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth surged to 6.4% year-on-year in May, significantly above market consensus, driven by strong sales in home appliances and communication equipment [11][12]. - The growth in online and offline goods sales improved, with notable increases in restaurant sales revenue as well [11]. - The report cautions that the recent retail sales improvement may not be sustainable due to potential payback effects and funding shortages in consumer goods trade-in programs [1][11]. Property Market - Property-related activity remained weak, with property sales declining by 3.3% year-on-year in volume and 5.9% in value terms in May [13]. - New home starts and completions also showed significant year-on-year declines, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [13]. Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.0% in May from 5.1% in April, reflecting seasonal patterns, while the unemployment rate for migrant workers increased slightly [14][17]. - Youth unemployment rates showed some moderation but are expected to rise amid the upcoming college graduation season [14][17].