Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) is experiencing a decline in stock price, down approximately 8% in the last month, which may shift market perception from overvalued to undervalued [1][3]. Market Analysis - The concept of reflexivity suggests that market valuations are influenced by participants' perceptions, creating a feedback loop that can disconnect prices from fundamentals [2]. - A distributional approach to analyzing AMZN stock can neutralize one-off events and highlight recurring patterns, allowing for a clearer understanding of risk geometry [5]. Price Projections - The forward 10-week returns for AMZN stock are expected to range between $223 and $247, with the highest probability density between $230 and $240 [10]. - The current price clustering shows a negative variance of 1.69% from the baseline cluster of around $236 to the current cluster of approximately $232, indicating a less favorable outlook for bullish investors [10]. Trading Strategy - A recommended trading strategy involves buying options with a strike price of $240, which requires AMZN stock to rise above this level for maximum payout, with a breakeven point at $237.25 [16]. - The analysis indicates that the range between $230 and $240 is the most likely destination for AMZN stock over the next 10 weeks, with a cautionary note on the severe probability decay beyond the $240 threshold [17].