Workflow
Dividend discount model
icon
Search documents
Are BOQ shares worth considering in February?
Rask Media· 2026-02-07 02:08
Core Viewpoint - The share price of Bank of Queensland Limited (BOQ) is under scrutiny as ASX investors attempt to establish a valuation for the company [1][2] Valuation Methods - The PE ratio is a common method for valuing bank shares, comparing the share price to earnings per share [3] - Investors can use intuition, compare with sector averages, or apply a PE multiple to earnings to determine valuation [4] - BOQ's current share price is $6.85, with an earnings per share of $0.41, resulting in a PE ratio of 16.7x, below the banking sector average of 19x [5] Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - The DDM is a robust valuation method for banks, using recent or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [6][7] - The formula for DDM valuation is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate) [8] - Using a blended growth rate and risk rate between 6% and 11%, the average valuation for BOQ shares is $7.19, with an adjusted dividend leading to a valuation of $7.40 [10] Gross Dividend Valuation - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a gross dividend payment of $0.50 results in a share price valuation of $10.57 [11] Growth and Risk Rate Analysis - A table outlines various growth and risk rates, showing how they affect share price valuations, with significant variations based on assumptions [12] Additional Considerations - Investors should also evaluate net interest margins, regulatory challenges, and the management team's effectiveness when analyzing BOQ [13]
Are NAB shares worth considering in February?
Rask Media· 2026-02-02 19:38
Core Viewpoint - National Australia Bank Ltd's share price is under scrutiny as investors attempt to establish a price target for the company [1][2] Group 1: Market Context - Australia's major banks constitute approximately 30% of the share market by market capitalization, highlighting their significance in the financial landscape [2] - The popularity of ASX bank shares has been notable since the early 1990s, particularly following a recession and high mortgage interest rates exceeding 15% [2] - Banks are generally perceived as being 'implicitly' protected from total financial collapse, as their failure would pose significant political challenges [2] Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a key metric for valuing bank shares, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share [3] - Three methods to utilize the PE ratio include intuitive buying/selling based on PE levels, comparing the PE ratio with peers or sector averages, and calculating a valuation by multiplying earnings per share by an appropriate PE multiple [4] Group 3: NAB's Financial Metrics - The current share price of NAB is $42.96, with earnings per share for FY24 reported at $2.26, resulting in a PE ratio of 19x, which aligns with the banking sector average [5] - A sector-adjusted PE valuation based on NAB's earnings per share yields a valuation of $42.39 [5] Group 4: Dividend Valuation - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a robust method for valuing banks, relying on recent or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [6][7] - Using last year's dividend payment of $1.69, with assumptions of consistent growth, the DDM valuation results in a share price of $35.74, which increases to $36.16 with an adjusted dividend of $1.71 [10] - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a gross dividend payment of $2.44 suggests a share price of $51.66 [11] Group 5: Growth and Risk Analysis - Various growth and risk rate scenarios yield a range of valuations for NAB shares, with a 6% risk rate and 2% growth rate suggesting a valuation of $42.75, while a 10% risk rate and 4% growth rate could lead to a valuation of $85.50 [12] - The analysis of NAB's net interest margins and regulatory challenges is crucial for understanding its financial health and potential for non-interest income [13] - Management assessment is also vital, as company culture plays a significant role in long-term investment decisions [13]
Are BEN shares worth considering in January?
Rask Media· 2026-01-26 19:43
Core Viewpoint - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd's share price is currently under scrutiny as ASX investors attempt to establish a price target for the company [1] Group 1: Market Context - Australia's major banks constitute approximately 30% of the share market based on market capitalization [2] - The popularity of ASX bank shares has been notable since the early 1990s, particularly following a recession and high mortgage interest rates exceeding 15% [2] - Banks are generally considered to have implicit protection against total financial collapse, as their failure would pose significant political challenges [2] Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a key metric for comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share [3] - Three methods to utilize the PE ratio include intuitive buying/selling thresholds, comparative analysis with peers or sector averages, and calculating a valuation based on expected earnings multiplied by an appropriate PE multiple [4] Group 3: Current Valuation of Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd - The current share price of Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd is $11.08, with earnings per share for FY24 reported at $0.87, resulting in a PE ratio of 12.7x, which is below the banking sector average of 19x [5] - A sector-adjusted PE valuation based on the average PE ratio yields a target price of $16.18 [5] Group 4: Dividend Valuation - A Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a more comprehensive approach for valuing banks, utilizing recent or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [6][7] - The DDM formula indicates that with a blended growth and risk rate, the valuation of BEN shares is approximately $13.32, and with an adjusted dividend payment, it rises to $13.75 [10] - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a gross dividend payment of $0.93 suggests a share price of $19.64 [11] Group 5: Growth and Risk Analysis - Various growth rates (2% to 4%) and risk rates (6% to 11%) yield different valuations, with the highest valuation of $32.50 occurring at a 4% growth rate and a 6% risk rate [12] - The analysis emphasizes that these valuation strategies are just initial steps in evaluating bank shares like Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd [12] Group 6: Additional Considerations - Important questions for further analysis include the sustainability of net interest margins and the management of regulatory challenges related to non-interest income [13] - The assessment of the management team's culture is also crucial, as it impacts long-term investment decisions [13]
Are NAB shares worth considering in January?
Rask Media· 2026-01-05 19:38
Core Viewpoint - National Australia Bank Ltd's share price is under scrutiny as investors attempt to establish a price target for the company [1][2] Group 1: Market Context - Australia's major banks constitute approximately 30% of the share market by market capitalization, highlighting their significance in the financial landscape [2] - The popularity of ASX bank shares has been notable since the early 1990s, particularly following a recession and high mortgage interest rates exceeding 15% [2] Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a key metric for valuing bank shares, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share [3] - Three methods to utilize the PE ratio include intuitive buying/selling based on PE levels, comparing PE ratios with peers or sector averages, and calculating a valuation by multiplying earnings per share by an appropriate PE multiple [4] Group 3: Current Valuation of NAB - NAB's current share price is $42.54, with earnings per share for FY24 reported at $2.26, resulting in a PE ratio of 18.8x, slightly below the banking sector average of 19x [5] - A sector-adjusted PE valuation based on the average PE ratio yields a valuation of $42.58 per share [5] Group 4: Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a robust valuation method for banks, relying on recent or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [6][7] - The formula for DDM valuation is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate), and it is advisable to calculate with various growth and risk assumptions [8] Group 5: DDM Valuation Results - Using a DDM approach, the valuation of NAB shares is estimated at $35.74, which increases to $36.16 with an adjusted dividend payment of $1.71 per share [10] - Considering fully franked dividends, a gross dividend payment forecast of $2.44 results in a valuation of $51.66 for NAB shares [11] Group 6: Growth and Risk Rate Analysis - Different growth and risk rate scenarios yield a range of valuations, with a 6% risk rate and 2% growth rate suggesting a share price of $42.75, while a 10% risk rate and 4% growth rate suggest a valuation of $28.50 [12] Group 7: Further Considerations - Additional factors for analysis include the sustainability of net interest margins, regulatory challenges, and the assessment of the management team's effectiveness [13]
CBA share price at $161: here’s how I would value them
Rask Media· 2025-12-24 00:38
Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) shares is a significant concern for investors, particularly those interested in dividend income, with current share price around $161 [1] Group 1: Investment Appeal of Bank Shares - Bank shares, including CBA, ANZ Banking Group, and Macquarie Group, are popular among Australian investors due to their stability and dividend offerings [2][3] - The Australian banking sector operates in an oligopoly, which provides a competitive advantage against foreign banks like HSBC [3] Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common valuation tool, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share, with CBA's current PE ratio at 28.6 compared to the sector average of 19 [4][6] - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for CBA, based on the average PE ratio, results in a valuation of $105.59 [6] Group 3: Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a preferred method for valuing banks, relying on past or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [7][8] - Using last year's dividend of $4.65 and various growth and risk assumptions, the DDM yields a valuation range for CBA shares between $95.20 and $143.80, depending on the growth and risk rates applied [11][12][13]
Are BEN shares worth considering in December?
Rask Media· 2025-12-15 19:37
Core Viewpoint - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd's share price is under scrutiny as ASX investors attempt to establish a price target for the company [1] Group 1: Market Context - Australia's major banks constitute approximately 30% of the share market by market capitalization, highlighting their significance in the financial landscape [2] - The popularity of ASX bank shares has been notable since the early 1990s, particularly following a recession and high mortgage interest rates exceeding 15% [2] - Banks are generally perceived as being 'implicitly' protected from total financial collapse, as their failure would pose significant political challenges [2] Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common metric used to evaluate a company's share price relative to its earnings per share [3] - Investors can utilize intuition regarding PE ratios, compare them with other banks or sector averages, or apply a multiple to the earnings per share to derive a valuation [4] - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd's current share price is $10.42, with an earnings per share of $0.87, resulting in a PE ratio of 12x, which is below the banking sector average of 19x [5] Group 3: Dividend Valuation - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a robust method for valuing banking sector companies, relying on recent or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [6][7] - The formula for DDM valuation is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate), and it is advisable to calculate with various growth and risk assumptions [8] - Using a blended growth rate and risk rate between 6% and 11%, the average valuation for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank shares is estimated at $13.32, with an adjusted dividend leading to a valuation of $13.75 [10] Group 4: Gross Dividend Valuation - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a gross dividend payment of $0.93 results in a share price valuation of $19.64 [11] Group 5: Additional Considerations - The analysis of Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd should also consider net interest margins, regulatory challenges, and the management team's effectiveness [13] - Company culture is an important factor in long-term investment decisions, although no company achieves a perfect culture [13]
BOQ share price at $6: here’s how I would value them
Rask Media· 2025-11-21 02:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of Bank of Queensland Limited (BOQ) shares, highlighting the importance of understanding their worth for investors, particularly those interested in dividend income. Group 1: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common tool for valuing shares, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share, with BOQ's current PE ratio calculated at 15.7x compared to the banking sector average of 18x [4][6] - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for BOQ, based on its earnings per share and the sector average PE, results in a valuation of $7.44 [6] - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on past or forecasted dividends and assuming consistent growth [7][8] Group 2: Dividend Valuation - The DDM formula used for valuation is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate), with various growth and risk assumptions yielding an average valuation of BOQ shares at $7.19, and an adjusted dividend payment increasing the valuation to $7.40 [9][11] - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a forecast gross dividend payment of $0.50 results in a share price valuation of $10.57 [12] Group 3: Market Context - The Australian banking sector is characterized by an oligopoly, with major banks like Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank dominating the market, making bank shares particularly attractive to dividend investors [2][3] - Despite attempts by international banks like HSBC to penetrate the Australian market, their success has been limited, reinforcing the appeal of local bank shares [3]
Are NAB shares worth considering in November?
Rask Media· 2025-11-10 19:37
Core Viewpoint - National Australia Bank Ltd's share price is under scrutiny as investors attempt to establish a price target for the company [1] Group 1: Market Context - Australia's major banks constitute approximately 30% of the share market by market capitalization, highlighting their significance in the financial landscape [2] - The popularity of ASX bank shares has been notable since the early 1990s, particularly following a recession and high mortgage interest rates exceeding 15% [2] - Banks are generally perceived as being 'implicitly' protected from total financial collapse, as their failure would pose significant political challenges [2] Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a key metric for valuing bank shares, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share [3] - Investors can utilize intuition regarding PE ratios, compare them with competitors like ANZ, or apply a multiple to the earnings per share to derive a valuation [4] - National Australia Bank's current share price is $43.27, with an earnings per share of $2.26, resulting in a PE ratio of 19.1x, slightly below the banking sector average of 20x [5] Group 3: Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a robust method for valuing banking sector companies, relying on recent or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [6][7] - The formula for DDM valuation is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate), and it is advisable to calculate with various growth and risk assumptions [8] - Using last year's dividend of $1.69, the DDM valuation yields $35.74, while an adjusted dividend of $1.71 results in a valuation of $36.16, compared to the current share price of $43.27 [10] Group 4: Adjusted Valuation - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a gross dividend payment of $2.44 results in a share price valuation of $51.66 [11] - Various growth and risk rate scenarios yield a range of valuations, with a 6% risk rate and 4% growth rate suggesting a valuation of $85.50 [12] Group 5: Additional Considerations - When analyzing bank shares, it is crucial to assess net interest margins, regulatory challenges, and management quality [13] - National Australia Bank's corporate culture has been evaluated, indicating it is not perfect, which is a factor to consider for long-term investment decisions [13]
NAB share price at $43: here’s how I would value them
Rask Media· 2025-10-19 19:37
Core Viewpoint - National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) shares are currently priced at approximately $43 per share, raising questions about their true value and potential investment opportunities for dividend-seeking investors [1][2]. Group 1: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common valuation tool, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share, with NAB's current PE ratio calculated at 19.2x against a sector average of 20x [4][6]. - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for NAB, based on its earnings per share and the average PE ratio of the banking sector, results in a valuation of $44.45 [6]. - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on past or forecasted dividends and assuming consistent growth [7][8]. Group 2: Dividend Valuation - Using a DDM approach, NAB's valuation based on last year's dividend of $1.69, with a blended growth and risk rate, yields a share price valuation of $35.74, while an adjusted dividend of $1.71 raises it to $36.16 [11]. - When considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a forecast gross dividend of $2.44 results in a share price valuation of $51.66 [12]. Group 3: Market Context - The Australian banking sector, including NAB, operates in an oligopoly, with limited success from foreign competitors like HSBC [2][3]. - Bank shares are particularly favored by Australian investors for their dividend income, with a focus on franking credits [3].
CBA share price at $167: here’s how I would value them
Rask Media· 2025-10-15 00:37
Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) shares is a significant concern for investors, particularly those interested in dividend income, with current share price around $167.21 [1][11]. Group 1: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common valuation tool, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share, with CBA's current PE ratio at 29.7x compared to the banking sector average of 20x [4][6]. - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for CBA, based on the average PE ratio, results in a valuation of $111.56 [6]. - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on recent or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [7][8]. Group 2: DDM Valuation Insights - The DDM formula used is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate), with various growth and risk assumptions yielding an average valuation of CBA shares at $98.33, adjusted to $100.66 with a higher dividend payment [10][11]. - A gross dividend valuation, including franking credits, results in a share price valuation of $143.80 [12]. Group 3: Growth and Risk Considerations - Different growth rates and risk rates yield a range of valuations, with a 6% risk rate and 2% growth rate resulting in a valuation of $119.00, while an 11% risk rate and 4% growth rate yield $238.00 [13]. - The complexity of banks necessitates thorough research beyond initial valuation methods, considering factors like growth strategy, economic indicators, and management assessment [14].