Dividend discount model
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Are NAB shares worth considering in January?
Rask Media· 2026-01-05 19:38
National Australia Bank Ltd share price is on watch this month as ASX investors scramble to put a rough price target on the company. In this update, you’ll discover how to value a bank share like National Australia Bank Ltd, but remember this is just a quick version.Theshare price is on watch this month as ASX investors scramble to put a rough price target on the company. In this update, you’ll discover how to value a bank share like National Australia Bank Ltd, but remember this is just a quick version.Aus ...
CBA share price at $161: here’s how I would value them
Rask Media· 2025-12-24 00:38
price of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (Right now, you could probably use Google or another data provider to see theof ASX: CBA ) is around $161 per share. But what are CBA shares really worth? How to get to an valuation is one of the more popular questions our senior investment analysts get asked by Australian investors, especially those seeking dividend income. It’s not exclusive to Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of course.ANZ Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) and Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are also very pop ...
Are BEN shares worth considering in December?
Rask Media· 2025-12-15 19:37
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd share price is on watch this month as ASX investors scramble to put a rough price target on the company. In this update, you’ll discover how to value a bank share like Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd, but remember this is just a quick version.Theshare price is on watch this month as ASX investors scramble to put a rough price target on the company. In this update, you’ll discover how to value a bank share like Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd, but remember this is just a quick version.Aus ...
BOQ share price at $6: here’s how I would value them
Rask Media· 2025-11-21 02:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of Bank of Queensland Limited (BOQ) shares, highlighting the importance of understanding their worth for investors, particularly those interested in dividend income. Group 1: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common tool for valuing shares, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share, with BOQ's current PE ratio calculated at 15.7x compared to the banking sector average of 18x [4][6] - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for BOQ, based on its earnings per share and the sector average PE, results in a valuation of $7.44 [6] - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on past or forecasted dividends and assuming consistent growth [7][8] Group 2: Dividend Valuation - The DDM formula used for valuation is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate), with various growth and risk assumptions yielding an average valuation of BOQ shares at $7.19, and an adjusted dividend payment increasing the valuation to $7.40 [9][11] - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a forecast gross dividend payment of $0.50 results in a share price valuation of $10.57 [12] Group 3: Market Context - The Australian banking sector is characterized by an oligopoly, with major banks like Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank dominating the market, making bank shares particularly attractive to dividend investors [2][3] - Despite attempts by international banks like HSBC to penetrate the Australian market, their success has been limited, reinforcing the appeal of local bank shares [3]
Are NAB shares worth considering in November?
Rask Media· 2025-11-10 19:37
National Australia Bank Ltd share price is on watch this month as ASX investors scramble to put a rough price target on the company. In this update, you’ll discover how to value a bank share like National Australia Bank Ltd, but remember this is just a quick version.Theshare price is on watch this month as ASX investors scramble to put a rough price target on the company. In this update, you’ll discover how to value a bank share like National Australia Bank Ltd, but remember this is just a quick version.Aus ...
NAB share price at $43: here’s how I would value them
Rask Media· 2025-10-19 19:37
Core Viewpoint - National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) shares are currently priced at approximately $43 per share, raising questions about their true value and potential investment opportunities for dividend-seeking investors [1][2]. Group 1: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common valuation tool, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share, with NAB's current PE ratio calculated at 19.2x against a sector average of 20x [4][6]. - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for NAB, based on its earnings per share and the average PE ratio of the banking sector, results in a valuation of $44.45 [6]. - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on past or forecasted dividends and assuming consistent growth [7][8]. Group 2: Dividend Valuation - Using a DDM approach, NAB's valuation based on last year's dividend of $1.69, with a blended growth and risk rate, yields a share price valuation of $35.74, while an adjusted dividend of $1.71 raises it to $36.16 [11]. - When considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a forecast gross dividend of $2.44 results in a share price valuation of $51.66 [12]. Group 3: Market Context - The Australian banking sector, including NAB, operates in an oligopoly, with limited success from foreign competitors like HSBC [2][3]. - Bank shares are particularly favored by Australian investors for their dividend income, with a focus on franking credits [3].
CBA share price at $167: here’s how I would value them
Rask Media· 2025-10-15 00:37
Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) shares is a significant concern for investors, particularly those interested in dividend income, with current share price around $167.21 [1][11]. Group 1: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common valuation tool, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share, with CBA's current PE ratio at 29.7x compared to the banking sector average of 20x [4][6]. - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for CBA, based on the average PE ratio, results in a valuation of $111.56 [6]. - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on recent or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [7][8]. Group 2: DDM Valuation Insights - The DDM formula used is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate), with various growth and risk assumptions yielding an average valuation of CBA shares at $98.33, adjusted to $100.66 with a higher dividend payment [10][11]. - A gross dividend valuation, including franking credits, results in a share price valuation of $143.80 [12]. Group 3: Growth and Risk Considerations - Different growth rates and risk rates yield a range of valuations, with a 6% risk rate and 2% growth rate resulting in a valuation of $119.00, while an 11% risk rate and 4% growth rate yield $238.00 [13]. - The complexity of banks necessitates thorough research beyond initial valuation methods, considering factors like growth strategy, economic indicators, and management assessment [14].
Are NAB shares worth considering in October?
Rask Media· 2025-10-13 19:37
Core Viewpoint - National Australia Bank Ltd's share price is under scrutiny as ASX investors attempt to establish a price target for the company [1][2] Group 1: Market Context - Australia's major banks constitute approximately 30% of the share market by market capitalization [2] - The popularity of ASX bank shares has been notable since the early 1990s, particularly following a recession and high mortgage interest rates exceeding 15% [2] - Banks are generally considered to have implicit protection against total financial collapse due to the political implications of a bank failure [2] Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common method for valuing bank shares, comparing the share price to earnings per share [3] - Three approaches to using the PE ratio include intuitive buying/selling based on PE levels, comparing PE ratios with peers, and calculating a valuation based on expected earnings and a chosen PE multiple [4] - National Australia Bank's current share price is $43.21, with an earnings per share of $2.26, resulting in a PE ratio of 19.1x, slightly below the banking sector average of 20x [5] Group 3: Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a more sophisticated method for valuing banks, relying on recent or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [6][7] - The formula for DDM valuation is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate) [8] - Using last year's dividend of $1.69 and assuming consistent growth, the DDM valuation yields $35.74, while an adjusted dividend of $1.71 results in a valuation of $36.16 [10] Group 4: Gross Dividend Valuation - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a forecast gross dividend payment of $2.44 results in a share price valuation of $51.66 [11] Group 5: Growth and Risk Analysis - Various growth and risk rate scenarios yield a range of valuations, with a 6% risk rate and 2% growth rate resulting in a valuation of $42.75, while a 10% risk rate and 4% growth rate yield $28.50 [12] Group 6: Additional Considerations - Further analysis should include questions about net interest margins, regulatory challenges, and the management team's effectiveness [13]
Are CBA shares worth considering in October?
Rask Media· 2025-10-09 00:37
Core Viewpoint - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) share price is under scrutiny as investors attempt to establish a rough valuation of the company, with various methods available for assessing bank shares [1][2]. Valuation Methods - The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common method for valuing bank shares, comparing the share price to earnings per share (EPS) [3][4]. - CBA's current share price is $168.09, with an EPS of $5.63, resulting in a PE ratio of 29.9x, which is higher than the banking sector average of 20x [5]. - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for CBA, using the sector average PE, yields a valuation of $111.52 [5]. Dividend Valuation - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a more robust valuation method for banks, which considers the most recent dividends and assumes consistent growth [6][7]. - Using last year's dividend payment of $4.65 and various growth and risk rates, the average valuation of CBA shares is calculated at $98.33, with an adjusted dividend leading to a valuation of $100.66 [10]. - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a gross dividend payment of $6.80 results in a share price valuation of $143.80 [11]. Growth and Risk Analysis - Different growth rates (2% to 4%) and risk rates (6% to 11%) yield a range of valuations for CBA shares, with the highest valuation reaching $238.00 at a 4% growth rate and 6% risk rate [12]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding net interest margins and regulatory impacts on non-interest income for a comprehensive evaluation of bank shares [13]. Management and Culture Assessment - Evaluating the management team and company culture is crucial for long-term investment decisions, with CBA's culture noted as not being perfect but still a significant factor in analysis [13].
How you can value the CBA share price
Rask Media· 2025-10-07 07:47
Core Viewpoint - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is a leading financial institution in Australia, with significant market shares in various lending categories and a strong focus on workplace culture and profitability metrics. Group 1: Market Position and Customer Base - CBA is Australia's largest bank, holding over 20% market share in mortgages, 25% in credit cards, and a substantial portion in personal loans, serving over 15 million customers primarily in Australia [2]. - The bank is deeply integrated into the Australian payments ecosystem and financial marketplace, indicating its entrenched position in the industry [2]. Group 2: Workplace Culture - A positive workplace culture is essential for long-term success, as it aids in retaining high-quality personnel, which can lead to improved financial performance [3]. - CBA's workplace culture rating is 3.4 out of 5, surpassing the ASX banking sector average of 3.1, suggesting a relatively favorable employee environment [4]. Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The net interest margin (NIM) is a critical measure of CBA's profitability, with the bank achieving a NIM of 1.99%, higher than the ASX major banks' average of 1.78% [6]. - CBA earned 85% of its total income from lending activities last year, highlighting the importance of lending in its revenue generation [7]. - The return on equity (ROE) for CBA was 13.1%, significantly above the sector average of 9.35%, indicating strong profitability relative to shareholder equity [8]. Group 4: Capital Structure - CBA's common equity tier one (CET1) ratio was 12.3%, exceeding the sector average, which provides a buffer against financial instability [9]. Group 5: Dividends and Valuation - The total dividend for CBA last year was $4.65, with projected growth rates between 2% and 4% leading to various share price valuations based on a dividend discount model (DDM) [11][12]. - The average valuation of CBA shares using a simple DDM model is estimated at $98.33, while an adjusted valuation based on forecast dividends is $100.66, compared to the current share price of $169.34 [12]. - A gross dividend payment valuation, which includes franking credits, suggests a fair value of $143.80, indicating that the current share price may appear expensive [12].