Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s recent pullback is less about crypto-specific weakness and more about a sharp contraction in dollar liquidity rippling through global markets. Key Takeaways: Arthur Hayes links Bitcoin’s pullback to a $300B contraction in U.S. dollar liquidity rather than crypto-specific factors. The USDLIQ index has fallen nearly 7% in six months, reflecting tighter financial conditions. Hayes says government cash buildup and reduced liquidity are pressuring Bitcoin and other risk assets. ...

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) underperformed in 2025 while gold soared 120%, yet BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes says dollar liquidity is about to return in 2026.The Real Reason Bitcoin LaggedThe Professional Capital Management CEO used his latest essay to point out why Bitcoin traded flat while gold exploded and tech stocks kept climbing.Bitcoin follows dollar liquidity. When the money supply shrinks, Bitcoin drops. When it expands, Bitcoin surges.Gold surged because central banks dumped U.S. treasuries after Russi ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin's weak performance in 2025 is attributed to tightening dollar liquidity, with a 14.4% decline in value while gold increased by 44.4% during the same period [1] - The price of Bitcoin is expected to rise sharply in 2026 due to anticipated expansion in dollar liquidity driven by clearer policies and increased bank lending [2][3] Bitcoin Price Structure and Holder Behavior - Bitcoin is currently trading near $96,200, reflecting an 11.5% increase over the past month, having recently surpassed the $94,200 resistance level [4] - On-chain data indicates a historically low Value Days Destroyed indicator of 0.53, suggesting that younger coins are being moved while long-term holders remain inactive, indicating strong confidence among investors [5] - The Bitcoin derivatives market has seen a significant deleveraging phase, with open interest dropping over 31% from its October 2025 peak of over $15 billion to around $10 billion [5][6] Future Predictions - Consistent monetary expansion is deemed necessary for Bitcoin to trade near or above $100,000, with predictions of reaching $150,000 in the first quarter of 2026 [3][6]

Bitcoin Billionaire Arthur Hayes Blames Crypto Plunge on 'Contraction in Dollar Liquidity'► https://t.co/NSvvsmW0yM https://t.co/NSvvsmW0yM ...

Group 1: Eurozone Banking Challenges - Eurozone banks are facing significant challenges due to a sell-off in US Treasury securities and a weakening dollar, complicating their reliance on USD-denominated liquid assets [3][8] - The interconnectedness of global financial systems is highlighted, with trade disputes potentially impacting monetary stability [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments in Ukraine - A notable shift in the Ukraine conflict has occurred, with President Zelenskiy and European leaders supporting President Trump's call for an immediate ceasefire and using the current line of contact as a basis for negotiations [4][8] - Discussions include potential territorial exchanges and the need for strong security guarantees for Ukraine [4] Group 3: China's Oil Import Quota - China has set its crude oil import quota for non-state trade for 2026 at 257 million metric tons, unchanged from 2025, indicating a consistent energy import strategy [5][8] - The country aims to expand its strategic petroleum reserves to approximately 1 billion barrels by 2026, which is crucial for global oil balances amid projected supply gluts [5] Group 4: US Government Shutdown - The US government shutdown has entered its fourth week, with discussions among Republicans about a longer stopgap bill to fund the government as the initial deadline approaches [6][8] - The ongoing fiscal uncertainty has led to widespread frustration among the public, as indicated by a recent poll [6] Group 5: CBOE Trading Hours Extension - CBOE is proposing to extend options trading hours to include new morning and afternoon sessions, aiming to enhance global market access and align with underlying equities [9] - This initiative responds to a 68% surge in options volume over the past two years, indicating growing demand for extended trading hours [9] Group 6: Energy Sector Developments - Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan have initiated an open season for a proposed fuel pipeline system from Texas to Arizona and California to address West Coast supply concerns due to refinery closures [10] - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding President Trump's tariffs, which have been claimed to amount to an illegal $3 trillion tax [10] - France's retail sales experienced a year-on-year decline of -1.2% in September, following a previous drop of -1.0% [10]