Let's get the bond report. Rick Santelli has more on how the markets are reacting to all of these crossurrens. Rick, what can you tell us.>> Well, you know, I like the way the charts tell a picture. If you look at twos and tens when the number was released, a couple things should jump out at you. The twos definitely seem to be more aggressive in holding the upside.I don't think that's for any big reasons to explain the Fed or uh acknowledge percentages and probabilities. I think it's purely the next chart w ...

Market Trends & Volatility - The market is showing signs of underlying weakness despite the strong performance of a few large companies [2][3] - The volatility index (VIX) is suggesting that something is going on in the market [2] - Market breadth has been miserable, indicating that the strength is concentrated in a few names [3] - The dollar index creeping above 100 suggests a combination of factors is at play, and the weak dollar trade may not materialize as expected [5][6] Sector Performance & Disparities - The equal-weighted S&P is down 65% since September 1st, while semiconductors have outperformed the S&P by 22% during the same period [4] - The performance disparity highlights the concentration of gains in specific sectors like semiconductors [4] Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The Fed is now more focused on inflation than the jobs market, which impacts market expectations [9] - Jerome Powell's indication that a December rate cut is unlikely is influencing market behavior [2][10] - Higher rates negatively impact staples and Bitcoin [10][11] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's underperformance and the weakness in meme stocks and quantum stocks suggest risk aversion [1][10] - The cryptocurrency space may face challenges if stable coins are not healthy [15][17] - Bitcoin's technicals indicate deleveraging or risk adjustment when it trades down $5,000 [18]

Core Insights - The crypto market is anticipating the release of September's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to show a 3.1% year-over-year increase, the highest in 18 months [1][2] - The expected inflation data may lead to larger price swings in ether compared to bitcoin, with ether projected to move by 2.9% and bitcoin by ±1.4% following the CPI release [1][6] Inflation Data Expectations - The CPI for September is forecasted to rise by 3.1% from the previous year, up from 2.9% in August, with a monthly increase of 0.4% [2] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is also expected to increase by 3.1% for the third consecutive month, with a monthly gain of 0.3% [3] Market Reactions - A higher-than-expected CPI could strengthen the dollar, potentially limiting gains in the crypto market, while a lower CPI might trigger a risk-on sentiment among investors [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions, influenced by the U.S. government shutdown, have created a scenario where a lower CPI could boost bullish sentiment in the crypto space [5] Volatility Predictions - The options market indicates that ether is expected to experience greater volatility than bitcoin, with a projected ±2.9% move for ether compared to bitcoin's ±1.4% [6][7] - Volmex Finance's implied volatility indices for both Bitcoin and Ether suggest similar expected price fluctuations following the CPI release [7]

Market Overview - Bond yields are down across the board, indicating a risk-off sentiment in the market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.05%, with a potential risk of falling below 4% [1][4] - The NASDAQ is experiencing a key reversal day, with a new intraday all-time high followed by a reversal lower [2] Treasury Market Dynamics - New low yields are being observed across the entire Treasury curve, from 2-year to 30-year bonds [3] - The 10-year yield settled at 4.14%, down nearly 10 basis points on the day, and only down about 7-8 basis points for the week [4] Currency and Economic Indicators - The dollar index has shown resilience, currently around 99, up from approximately 97.75 last week [5][6] - The market appears to believe that the impact of recent tariff news will be short-lived, similar to previous tariff-related market movements [5] Potential Market Reversals - Any positive developments regarding tariffs or trade relations, such as favorable social media posts, could lead to a rapid reversal in market trends [6][7] - The significance of the closing yield for the 10-year Treasury is emphasized, particularly in relation to the 4% threshold [8]

All right, meantime, bond yields, they are down across the board on that social media post and kind of a a riskoff perspective of this entire market. Let's bring in Rick Santelli to kind of make sense of all this. Rick, I'm looking at a tenure at 4.05% one day.I get it, not a trend. Is there a risk here of sub4. You know, I think there there is a risk, but I also think the catalyst for this move makes the risk of a test of 4% on a closing basis less technically significant.So, as you see the charts I put in ...

Group 1 - The Treasury market is currently hovering below a key level of 4.25%, but remains above the significant 4% level, indicating market stability despite inflation concerns [1][2] - Year-over-year core PCE inflation is reported at 2.9%, which is above the pre-COVID levels and indicates persistent inflationary pressures, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2][3] - The Federal Reserve may reconsider aggressive easing strategies due to the persistent inflation and stable labor market, as evidenced by the tame claims data of 218,000 [3] Group 2 - The Treasury yields have increased, with a rise of seven basis points on the week for the 10-year and five basis points for the two-year, reflecting market reactions to recent economic data [4] - The dollar index has appreciated by approximately 1.6% since the Federal Reserve's easing on the 17th, indicating a strengthening dollar amidst the current economic environment [4]

Bond Market & Interest Rates - The short end of the market is likely to experience one or two rate cuts before year-end, which could provide some support [1] - High credit card interest rates, around 25%, are a key concern [1] - Housing market is identified as the critical missing piece in the economy [2] - Treasury Secretary's comments on lowering rates may have had some effect [3] - Market participants experience a sense of relief after CPI releases, even if slightly warmer than expected, leading to lower yields for twos and tens maturities [4] Dollar Index & Speculative Trading - The dollar index is sensitive to the administration's pressure for lower rates due to its wider audience of speculative trading [5] - A close below 98 on the dollar index is expected to maintain selling pressure, according to technicians [5] - The dollar index has retraced a significant portion of its bounce from multi-year lows seen in early July [5]

Global Bond Market & Treasury Yields - Global bond issuance is a key factor influencing Treasury yields [1] - The market anticipates interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period [2] - The 20-year Treasury auction showed strong performance with the lowest net yield change on the curve, although rates initially dipped before rising again [2][3] Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) - Japan's role as a significant debt issuer is crucial to monitor [4] - JGB ten-year yield is around 1.58%, considered elevated [4] - The interest rate differential between JGBs and US Treasuries is influenced by currency exchange rates [5] Dollar Index - Despite a slight increase in interest rates, the dollar index did not strengthen significantly [5] - The dollar index's 3.5-year low close on July 2nd at 96.78 is a critical level to watch, as technicians may sell if it's breached [6]

Market Trends & Analysis - The dollar index has been in a bear market since peaking on January 1st at 110 and February 3rd at 10975, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows [2] - Technically, the dollar index needs to surpass 9936 to establish a neutral trend, with potential resistance around 100 [2] - Political uncertainty, tariff headlines, and speculation of US authorities favoring a weaker currency are fueling a rotation away from the dollar [3] Currency Composition & Reserve Rotation - The dollar's composition in foreign exchange reserves has decreased from approximately 71% in 2001 to about 57% in 2025 [4][5] - Central banks are rotating out of the dollar due to concerns about the unsustainable US fiscal trajectory, despite low default risk [5] - Central banks are diversifying their reserves by adding gold and other asset classes [6] Impact Factors & Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's uncertainty regarding spending measures and geopolitical factors necessitates holding higher rates for longer [7] - Uncertainty surrounding the "big beautiful bill," Middle East conflict, and tariffs are holding back the dollar's rally [7] - Clarity on these issues is needed for the dollar index to potentially resume its rally [7]