The US dollar index tumbled in the first six months of the year, posting its worst first-half performance since 1973 when Richard Nixon was president https://t.co/SZXdBYJA4V ...

Thanks for having me on, Frank. Yeah, dollar's being held back by some uncertainty here and frankly being down 8%. It's just a scratch. Susan, it's just you're calling it just a scratch like Elon Musk.So, it's actually down more than 9%. But I want to get to the action this week in particular. So, I think a lot of people are saying people are piling into the dollar as a safe haven, but you're saying it's something a bit different.You're saying it's some short covering and just also a bare market bounce. Yea ...

The U.S. dollar index was little changed on Monday after hitting a three-year low last week. Monitor these chart levels that investors will likely be watching. https://t.co/sLH4g814wT ...

· 案例：2011-2015 年澳元 / 美元下跌 40%，主因澳大利亚央行连续降息（3.5%→1.5%）而美联储结束 QE 分析货币对的长期趋势和周期性是外汇交易和宏观经济研究的重要课题。以下是系统化的框架和分析方 法，帮助理解这一复杂主题： 一、长期趋势分析框架 1、结构性驱动因素 · 利率差异（Interest Rate Differentials） 2、地缘政治周期 3、跨资产验证 · 泰勒规则模型可预测政策利率路径 二、周期性分析模型 · 经济增长差异 1、经济周期嵌套理论 2、央行政策周期 · OECD 领先指标显示，当美国 PMI 超过欧元区 3 个百分点时，EUR/USD 年均贬值 5% · 购买力平价（PPP） · 根据 BIS 数据，美元长期偏离 PPP 约 15%，但 10 年周期内会向均值回归 · ADX 指标 > 25 确认趋势强度，<20 预示周期转换 · 美元指数在 Q4 平均上涨概率达 68%（1980-2020 年） · 日元 3 月财政年度结束时的回流效应，USD/JPY 在 3 月下跌概率超过 60% · 美元指数在 1995-2002/2011-2020 呈现典型 16 ...