Hey, we were talking about this earlier just kind of the shift in the momentum in the markets where investors seem to be turning away from the AI trade seemingly largely due to valuation concerns. Healthcare the best performing sector this week generally seen as a defensive sector. Just your take on that momentum shift.>> Yeah, I think it's to be expected a bit Frank. Um when you go into a cyclical recovery uh powered by both monetary and fiscal stimulus both of which we received in meaningful amounts this ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is nearing a two-month high due to fiscal and economic concerns affecting currencies in Asia and Europe, with hedge funds increasing bearish bets on the euro and yen while showing demand for long-dollar exposure [1][2][3] Currency Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by as much as 0.3%, approaching its highest level since early August, driven by increased bearish options on the euro and yen [1][4] - The dollar has strengthened nearly 1% since the end of September, reducing its year-to-date decline to approximately 7.6% [5] Global Economic Concerns - The euro is under pressure due to political turmoil in France, while the yen has weakened amid speculation of increased fiscal expansion and slower interest-rate hikes in Japan [2][3] - Concerns regarding fiscal sustainability in Japan and France have led to a reassessment of the US macro outlook, with traders viewing the US as a relatively stable option despite the government shutdown [3] Market Sentiment - There is a notable shift in market sentiment towards the US dollar, with one-year risk reversals indicating the highest level of optimism since April, marking a significant turnaround from previous bearish positioning [4] - Despite the recent dollar strength, skepticism remains among market participants regarding the sustainability of this bounce, contributing to increased demand for gold, which recently surpassed $4,000 an ounce [5][6]

Group 1 - The U.S. dollar gained against major currencies, including the yen, Swiss franc, and euro, following a cautious statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding future easing measures [1][3] - The euro declined after an unexpected fall in German business morale, with a decrease of 0.69% to $1.1734, while sterling fell 0.58% to $1.3443 [2] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.65% to 97.87, attempting to recover from two consecutive losing sessions [5] Group 2 - Markets anticipate quarter-point rate cuts at the remaining two Federal Reserve meetings this year and another in the first quarter of 2026, aligning with the central bank's guidance [4] - The focus is on upcoming U.S. data, particularly the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is crucial for shaping expectations on the Fed's policy direction [4] - The dollar remains underweight in the real money community, suggesting a potential period of consolidation [3][5]

Group 1: Ukraine's Impact on Oil Prices - Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian refineries, halting approximately 300,000 bpd of refining capacity, which is expected to support crude prices by tightening global oil supplies [1] - Ukrainian drone attacks have led to a reduction in Russia's crude-processing runs to 4.98 million bpd in early September, marking the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years [1] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Better-than-expected US economic data, including a decrease in weekly initial unemployment claims by 33,000 to 231,000, indicates a stronger labor market, which is supportive of energy demand and crude prices [2] - The Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey increased by 23.5 to an 8-month high of 23.2, surpassing expectations, further bolstering confidence in energy demand [2] Group 3: Global Oil Supply Concerns - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million bpd, which is 360,000 bpd higher than previously anticipated, raising concerns about a potential global oil glut [3] - OPEC+ has agreed to increase crude production by 137,000 bpd starting in October, which is less than the previous increases, indicating a cautious approach to restoring production levels [7] Group 4: US Oil Inventory and Production - As of September 12, US crude oil inventories were 4.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, with gasoline and distillate inventories also below their respective averages, suggesting tighter supply conditions [8] - US crude oil production slightly decreased by 0.1% week-over-week to 13.482 million bpd, remaining below the record high of 13.631 million bpd [8] Group 5: Active Oil Rigs - The number of active US oil rigs increased by 2 to 416 rigs, slightly above the 4-year low, indicating a modest recovery in drilling activity [9]

Group 1: Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices - October WTI crude oil is down -0.34 (-0.53%) and October RBOB gasoline is down -0.0092 (-0.45%) due to a stronger dollar and weaker-than-expected US housing starts and building permits [1] - Weekly EIA crude inventories and gasoline supplies fell more than expected, limiting losses in crude prices [1] Group 2: US Housing Market Impact - August US housing starts fell -8.5% month-over-month to 1.307 million, below expectations of 1.365 million [2] - August building permits unexpectedly fell -3.7% month-over-month to a 5.25-year low of 1.312 million, weaker than the anticipated increase to 1.370 million [2] Group 3: Ukraine-Russia Conflict and Oil Supply - Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, which is bullish for crude prices by curbing Russian crude exports and tightening global oil supplies [3] - Damage from Ukrainian drone attacks has led to a reduction in Russia's crude-processing runs to 4.98 million barrels per day (bpd) in early September, the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years [3] Group 4: Sanctions and Global Oil Supply Concerns - Ongoing war in Ukraine raises concerns about potential additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, which could further reduce global oil supplies [4] - The US proposed that G7 allies impose tariffs as high as 100% on China and India for their purchases of Russian oil to pressure Russia to end the war [4]

Currency Market Analysis - The dollar's value decreased by 10% in the first half of the year [1] - The dollar's dominance in the global monetary system is being questioned [1] - The dollar's strength lies in the absence of a clear alternative currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in relation to investments and financial instruments [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as recommendations or advice for any financial actions [1]. - The website does not guarantee the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided, which may not reflect real-time market conditions [1]. Group 2 - The content includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of financial loss [1]. - Users are encouraged to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1].