Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have reached 1.5-week highs, driven by a decline in the dollar index and concerns over Russian oil exports due to increased Ukrainian drone attacks [2][3] - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is tightening global oil supplies, with significant damage to Russian oil infrastructure impacting crude processing rates [3][6] Price Movements - October WTI crude oil is up by 1.08 (+1.71%) and October RBOB gasoline is up by 0.0209 (+1.04%) [1] - A decrease in crude oil stored on tankers, which fell by 7.2% week-over-week to 67.96 million barrels, is also supporting oil prices [5] Economic Indicators - Strong US economic data, including a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales and a 0.2% rise in manufacturing production, is bullish for energy demand and crude prices [4] Geopolitical Factors - The war in Ukraine is leading to potential new sanctions on Russian energy exports, which could further reduce global oil supplies [6] - Recent drone attacks on Russian refineries have significantly curtailed crude-processing runs to 4.98 million barrels per day, marking the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years [3]

Group 1 - UBS investment strategists indicate that rate cuts, dollar weakness, and political risk are favorable for bullion [1] - The commentary includes insights on S&P 500 price targets, highlighting market expectations [1] - There is a noted skepticism regarding AI developments within the market [1] Group 2 - Emerging markets are discussed in the context of current investment strategies and potential opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Let's start with the euro. We've heard from Isabel Schnabel at the ECB talking about inflation risks. We get inflation data a little bit later out this morning.But what are you seeing in the euro that's of interest. Well, I think what's interesting is the fact that it's really seen through a lot of the potential threats to its strength. It's still trading near 20, 21 levels.You've got this extreme political insurgency in France, you know, with a possible government collapse next week. You've got the far rig ...

Macro shifts — Fed outlook, dollar weakness & new policies — moving crypto sentiment.💵📉 ...

Let's talk about this FX market driven in the first half of this year by perceived capital flows. Do you believe that in the second half of this year it will be driven by rate differentials and why. I write differentials up to a point.Expectations about growth which are which are often the same thing. But but yes, I think that people are genuinely uncertain in the sense of at the moment they're uncertain, but aware of the fact that the world is very long because we've all put so much money into the US equit ...

We saw Europe weakness yesterday, a real feature once again today, down 2/10 of a percent on 1562 is where we train. I mean, this was a currency that had been at a three year high coming into this agreement. So what can we tell from this euro weakness.Right. Absolutely. I think the context is really important.It's seen as the biggest rally since the years since 2003. It's a really huge gain that we've seen in the euro. And look, that has been about dollar weakness.We've seen the same with the pounds as well ...

Is the market starting to wake up to what could be coming when it comes to trade. Good morning. Uh good morning, Nathan.Well, I I would say uh here we go again. Uh you know, like we we kind of know the pattern now. I mean, this is President Trump's style.He'll he goes hard and then he you know, he doesn't uh back off completely, but it's a it's a back and forth. And that's his negotiating style. You know, it's the old BATNA where you put your stake in the ground and aggressively and then you try to negotiat ...

Market Trends & Bitcoin - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high just shy of $112,000 [1] - Bitcoin ETFs are seeing billions of dollars flowing in [1] - Bitcoin-related companies like Block and MicroStrategy are rising [1] Currency & Dollar Weakness - The dollar has declined over 10% year-to-date [3] - Lower front-end interest rates, reallocation out of the US, and hedging are driving dollar weakness [4][5] - The dollar's decline may continue due to allocation shifts and historical trends [6][7] - The dollar is at roughly fair value, but currencies never stop at fair value [6] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Expectation of less Fed independence is causing a change in Fed funds expectations next year, with the market expecting significantly lower interest rates around May/June [10] - Less Fed independence is causing slightly higher longer-term inflation expectations [10] - Foreign investors holding US treasuries in very short tenor bonds (three years and less) may let them expire, impacting demand [12] Treasury & Stablecoins - Relaxing the SLR (supplementary leverage ratio) could help Treasury demand [14] - Increased demand for stablecoins, backed by Treasury bills, could help short-end demand but steepen the yield curve [14][15] - The long end of the yield curve, impacting mortgage rates and business loans, will be hard for the Treasury to control [15] Equity Markets & Valuation - US stocks are fairly richly valued at 22 times 12-month forward price earnings, especially versus peers overseas [17] - Concentration and bullishness are increasing in equity markets [18] - Higher inflation and significantly slower growth are expected later this year [19]

All right. Well, even with the bid for treasuries and the US dollar today, Bank of America's new global fund manager survey sees falling demand for US assets, it also finds investors are more underweight the dollar than they've been in two decades. Our next guest sees this as a potential game-changing moment for the greenback.Peter Bookar is the chief investment officer at Blekeley Financial Group. He's also a CNBC contributor. Peter, great to have you with us.you know, with the dollar with the spade of dol ...