Gold was steady in the early Asian session, underpinned by dollar weakness that typically makes the precious metal cheaper for potential buyers holding nondollar currencies. ...

The dollar index (DXY00) tumbled to a 1.75-month low today and is down by -0.55%.  The dollar is under pressure today on negative carryover from Wednesday after the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by -25 bp and said it would boost liquidity in the financial system and begin purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills. The dollar added to its losses today after US weekly jobless claims rose more than expected to a 3-month high, a sign of labor market weakness that is dovish for Fed policy.  A suppor ...

Core Insights - Global investors are advised to reduce exposure to US equities as emerging market stocks are expected to outperform developed market stocks for the first time in five years due to a weakening US dollar [1][4] - The US dollar has weakened significantly, dropping by 10% at one point this year, following a decade-long bull run that began in 2011 [1] - Cambridge Associates predicts a further decline in the dollar, anticipating a multi-year bear market starting in 2026 due to economic policy uncertainty, overvalued assets, and fiscal pressures [2] Market Performance - The weaker US dollar has positively impacted international stocks, with global non-US equities outperforming US equities by 6.6 percentage points in local currency terms and by 13.9 percentage points in US dollar terms in 2025 [3] - Latin America has shown remarkable performance in emerging markets, achieving a 37% year-to-date return on equities, supported by low valuations and improving macroeconomic conditions [5] Investment Recommendations - Cambridge Associates recommends investors to be overweight in global non-US equities in 2026, expecting the trend of outperformance to continue [4] - The heavy reliance on technology stocks in the US market makes it vulnerable, particularly if the artificial intelligence theme loses momentum, which could lead to a pullback by overseas investors [6] Valuation Metrics - The cyclically adjusted price-to-cash-earnings ratio for the MSCI USA index is 2.19 times higher than that of the MSCI Developed Markets index (ex-US), indicating a 50% premium to its long-term median [7] Economic Policy Context - The Trump administration is preparing to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair, with a focus on lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar to address the trade deficit and stimulate US industry [8]

Group 1 - Copper, gold, and silver prices have increased significantly this year, driven by investor hedging against political instability and dollar weakness, alongside tightening supplies of major metals [1] - Copper prices reached a record high of $11,485 per metric ton, reflecting a 34.1% increase year-to-date [2] - The surge in copper prices is attributed to increased demand from AI data center buildouts and renewable energy projects, which are tightening supplies typically used for electric vehicles and smartphones [3] Group 2 - U.S. silver futures have surged by 101.4%, rising from $29.24/oz to $58.88/oz, while gold prices have increased by 60.7% year-to-date [4] - The demand for gold and silver has risen as investors seek protection against political instability, inflation, and a weak dollar, influenced by tariffs and a recent government shutdown [4] - A refined copper supply deficit of 304,000 tons is projected for 2025, with even larger shortfalls expected in the coming year [5]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets have shown strong performance this year, attributed to dollar weakness and improved economic policies [1] Group 1 - The fund manager highlights that the strength of emerging markets is partly due to the depreciation of the dollar [1] - Better economic policies in these markets have also contributed to their robust performance [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.33% at a 2-week low, influenced by the strength of the yen and expectations of a Fed rate cut [1] - The US Nov ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -0.5 to a 4-month low of 48.2, weaker than the expected increase to 49.0, indicating economic contraction [3] - The markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Leadership Speculation - The dollar is under pressure due to speculation regarding Kevin Hassett as a potential candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as US Fed Chair, which is seen as bearish for the dollar [2] - Hassett's nomination could raise concerns about Fed independence, as he supports President Trump's approach to interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Euro and ECB Policy - The EUR/USD is up by +0.32% at a 2-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and hawkish comments from ECB officials [4] - ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that Eurozone interest rates are currently in a good place, indicating a divergence in central bank policies [4][5] - The Eurozone Nov S&P manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.1 to 49.6, marking the steepest pace of contraction in 5 months [5]

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is up +0.62 (+1.06%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) closed up +0.0316 (+1.73%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied to 1-week highs today as the decline in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 1.5-week low is bullish for energy prices.  Also, the concern that the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue supports crude prices.  Russian President Putin was vague when asked about US President Trump's proposal for ending the war, and European Commission Vice President Kallas said ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,046.64 tons of gold as of November 12, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.28 tons from the previous trading day. The price of spot gold has surged, breaking the $4,200 per ounce mark, driven by a weak dollar and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 12, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings stand at 1,046.64 tons, marking an increase of 0.28 tons from the prior day [7]. - The gold ETF holdings have increased for two consecutive trading days [7]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On November 12, spot gold prices reached a high of $4,211.59 per ounce before closing at $4,195.46, reflecting a gain of $68.84 or 1.67% [7]. - Gold prices experienced a brief sell-off, dropping below $4,100 per ounce, but quickly rebounded, establishing $4,100 as a support level for the week [8]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a weak dollar and heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside concerns over the economic impact of the U.S. government shutdown, which may have reduced GDP growth by 1.5% to 2.0% [7][8]. - Market sentiment is influenced by disappointing employment and consumer confidence data, which have contributed to the bullish trend in gold as a non-yielding asset [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The upward trend in gold prices remains intact, with the path of least resistance pointing upwards. Any pullbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities [8]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,250 and $4,300, while short-term support is at $4,161 and $4,100 [9].

Group 1 - Bitcoin is experiencing a significant rally, recently surpassing $126,000, driven by new demand sources and its fixed supply [2] - U.S. inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 2.9% over the past year, prompting investors to seek scarce assets like Bitcoin [4][5] - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken over the next 12 months, benefiting Bitcoin and traditional hedges like gold, as investors look for safety from currency-related issues [5][6] Group 2 - Corporate treasuries and digital asset treasury companies are increasingly adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, contributing to its demand [7] - Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with approximately 640,031 bitcoins, and its chairman is committed to purchasing more regardless of price [8] - Bitcoin is being utilized as a hedge against inflation and is also being acquired by digital asset treasury companies, especially as asset managers create Bitcoin exchange-traded funds [9]

Market Trends - Bitcoin's role in the "debasement trade" is more narrative than reality as investors seek to hedge against a weaker dollar [1]