We saw Europe weakness yesterday, a real feature once again today, down 2/10 of a percent on 1562 is where we train. I mean, this was a currency that had been at a three year high coming into this agreement. So what can we tell from this euro weakness.Right. Absolutely. I think the context is really important.It's seen as the biggest rally since the years since 2003. It's a really huge gain that we've seen in the euro. And look, that has been about dollar weakness.We've seen the same with the pounds as well ...

Is the market starting to wake up to what could be coming when it comes to trade. Good morning. Uh good morning, Nathan.Well, I I would say uh here we go again. Uh you know, like we we kind of know the pattern now. I mean, this is President Trump's style.He'll he goes hard and then he you know, he doesn't uh back off completely, but it's a it's a back and forth. And that's his negotiating style. You know, it's the old BATNA where you put your stake in the ground and aggressively and then you try to negotiat ...

Market Trends & Bitcoin - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high just shy of $112,000 [1] - Bitcoin ETFs are seeing billions of dollars flowing in [1] - Bitcoin-related companies like Block and MicroStrategy are rising [1] Currency & Dollar Weakness - The dollar has declined over 10% year-to-date [3] - Lower front-end interest rates, reallocation out of the US, and hedging are driving dollar weakness [4][5] - The dollar's decline may continue due to allocation shifts and historical trends [6][7] - The dollar is at roughly fair value, but currencies never stop at fair value [6] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Expectation of less Fed independence is causing a change in Fed funds expectations next year, with the market expecting significantly lower interest rates around May/June [10] - Less Fed independence is causing slightly higher longer-term inflation expectations [10] - Foreign investors holding US treasuries in very short tenor bonds (three years and less) may let them expire, impacting demand [12] Treasury & Stablecoins - Relaxing the SLR (supplementary leverage ratio) could help Treasury demand [14] - Increased demand for stablecoins, backed by Treasury bills, could help short-end demand but steepen the yield curve [14][15] - The long end of the yield curve, impacting mortgage rates and business loans, will be hard for the Treasury to control [15] Equity Markets & Valuation - US stocks are fairly richly valued at 22 times 12-month forward price earnings, especially versus peers overseas [17] - Concentration and bullishness are increasing in equity markets [18] - Higher inflation and significantly slower growth are expected later this year [19]

All right. Well, even with the bid for treasuries and the US dollar today, Bank of America's new global fund manager survey sees falling demand for US assets, it also finds investors are more underweight the dollar than they've been in two decades. Our next guest sees this as a potential game-changing moment for the greenback.Peter Bookar is the chief investment officer at Blekeley Financial Group. He's also a CNBC contributor. Peter, great to have you with us.you know, with the dollar with the spade of dol ...

So maybe Art, we'll start big picture here because I'm curious. Art, what is the latest Art Hogan target, year-end target for the S&P. Art, where are we.Yeah, so our target is 6200, which uh doesn't seem that aggressive in the here and now, but certainly felt aggressive uh back in April. So I I would tell you this. I think we've done a good job of going from a defensive first quarter where everyone was piling into things like consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, gold, and treasuries to where now we feel ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the delayed impact of tariffs on US economic data, with inflation expected to peak by Q3 2025 and growth data lagging behind [6][14] - The strategists anticipate a convergence of US growth towards global growth, particularly European growth, which will influence interest rates and currency exchanges [5][11] - The expectation is for US treasury yields to remain range-bound until Q4 2025, with potential for lower yields if growth and inflation data align with forecasts [5][12] Economic Outlook - The report outlines forecasts for US Real GDP growth, indicating modest growth rates ranging from 0.1% to 0.7% on a quarterly basis from 2023 to 2026 [7] - Core PCE inflation is projected to peak in mid-2025, with a significant lag in data response to tariff impacts [6][14] - Emerging markets are expected to experience adjustments due to changes in US economic policy, with cautious outlooks on returns tracking US Treasuries rather than outperforming [11] Central Bank Policies - The report discusses the Federal Reserve's anticipated policy path, suggesting that while the Fed may hold rates steady in 2025, other central banks have more room to ease due to slowing growth and inflation [12][13] - The Bank of Japan faces challenges from tariffs and currency appreciation, with expectations for an extended pause in rate hikes despite resilient inflation [10] Market Volatility - The report notes significant market volatility in April 2025 due to unexpected tariff levels, leading to a shift in equity/rates correlations as markets adjusted to new economic policies [4] - The strategists highlight that the current pause in dollar weakness is temporary, with expectations for renewed dollar strength as the Fed's path becomes clearer [5]