Core Insights - Baupost Group's latest 13F filing reveals a highly selective and concentrated portfolio, focusing on durable businesses with long-term cash generation potential [1][2] Investment Moves - **Restaurant Brands International (QSR)**: Increased by 4,203,300 shares to 8,252,862 shares, representing a $529.3 million position (11.05% of the portfolio). This is now Baupost's largest equity holding, indicating a belief in significant mispricing relative to its stable franchise model and cash flows [3][4] - **Elevance Health (ELV)**: Increased by 703,000 shares to 1,319,000 shares, totaling a $426.2 million position (8.90%). The increase suggests confidence in the company's predictable cash flows and resilience in a politically noisy sector [5][6] - **Union Pacific (UNP)**: Newly established position with 1,496,204 shares, valued at $353.7 million (7.38%). The railroad's high barriers to entry and pricing power align with Baupost's focus on downside protection [7][8] - **Alphabet (GOOG)**: Reduced by 775,850 shares to 1,858,138 shares, now a $452.6 million position (9.45%). The reduction reflects portfolio risk management rather than a loss of conviction [9] - **CRH plc (CRH)**: Trimmed by 442,000 shares to 3,383,395 shares, valued at $405.7 million (8.47%). The trim indicates a disciplined approach to valuation, despite the long-term thesis remaining intact [10] - **Full Exits**: Baupost exited several positions entirely, including Viasat, Liberty Broadband, ICON plc, and Amcor, signaling a shift in risk-reward balance [11][12] Strategic Focus - The quarter was characterized by conviction-driven capital redeployment into high-confidence ideas, particularly in sectors like restaurants, railroads, healthcare, and materials [13][14] - Trimming positions like GOOG and CRH reflects a focus on risk management and valuation discipline rather than a bearish outlook [15] - The top 10 positions account for over 75% of disclosed assets, emphasizing Baupost's belief in concentration as a strategy against ignorance [16] - The portfolio prioritizes downside protection, with upside driven by business durability rather than macroeconomic bets [17]

strata protocol hit $200m tvl splitting ethena yields into tranches during usde's 50% supply collapse. senior holders getting 8-9% protected yields, junior holders taking 21% with first-loss risk. maven11 just backed them with $3m. tranching volatile defi yields into rated products captures both risk-averse and degen capital. the spread between senior safety at 8% and junior leverage at 21% prices how much traders will pay for downside protection ...

Core Insights - Calamos Investments launched three Laddered Protected Bitcoin ETFs, providing different levels of exposure and protection to bitcoin investments [1][2] Group 1: ETF Overview - The three ETFs are designed to allocate across four quarterly Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETFs, each starting in a different quarter for continuous exposure [2] - The underlying funds aim to match positive price returns of bitcoin indexes while providing defined caps for downside protection [2] Group 2: CBOL - Bitcoin with a Level of Safety for Retirees - The Calamos Laddered Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF (CBOL) offers complete downside protection across its underlying funds, with a weighted average starting cap rate of 10.25% [3] - CBOL is positioned as a fixed-income alternative and a risk-averse option for retirees looking to engage with bitcoin [3] Group 3: CBTL - A Potent Equity Alternative - The Calamos Laddered Bitcoin 80 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF (CBTL) does not provide complete downside protection, limiting maximum loss to -20% per outcome period [4] - CBTL has a weighted average starting cap rate of 46.34%, making it suitable as an equity alternative with potential for equity-like returns [5] Group 4: CBXL - Inflation Hedge and Diversifier - The Calamos Laddered Bitcoin 90 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF (CBXL) offers a middle ground with a maximum loss limit of -10% and a weighted average starting cap rate of 26.61% [6] - CBXL aims to leverage bitcoin's potential as an inflation hedge and portfolio diversifier [6] Group 5: Investment Considerations - Despite surface similarities, the ETFs cater to different portfolio applications, prompting advisors and investors to evaluate their specific needs for bitcoin exposure [7]

Group 1: Company Actions - Goldman Sachs Asset Management is acquiring Innovator Capital Management for $2 billion, focusing on defined outcome exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1] - The acquisition is expected to close in the first half of next year, indicating a strategic move to enhance their product offerings in the ETF market [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Defined outcome ETFs, also known as buffer ETFs, are gaining traction as they provide downside protection and income for investors, addressing specific market needs [2] - Bryon Lake, co-head of the Third-Party Wealth team at Goldman Sachs, emphasizes the growth potential of defined outcome ETFs, describing them as a fast and attractive space [2] - Kathmere Capital Management, managing $3.4 billion in assets, highlights the role of defined outcome ETFs in client portfolios to reduce downside risk, indicating a growing demand for these products [3] - The appeal of defined outcome ETFs lies in their ability to offer stock market exposure with built-in safety nets, making them suitable for risk-managed equity solutions [4]

Market Trends & Strategic Acquisitions - Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) recognizes the growing trend and client demand for active ETFs, particularly in the defined outcome space [2][3][6] - GSAM acquired Innovator Capital Management to accelerate its growth in the defined outcome ETF market [3][4] - The defined outcome ETF market is projected to grow significantly, potentially increasing by 4 to 5 times over the next five years [7] Product Focus & Investor Needs - Defined outcome ETFs address specific investor needs, such as income generation, downside protection, and growth [6] - These ETFs provide equity exposure with built-in downside protection, fitting into a "risk-aware growth" investment strategy [10] - Investors are increasingly using defined outcome ETFs in their portfolios as part of a critical path of innovation [7] Cost & Operational Efficiency - ETFs offer operational ease and scalability, allowing for consistent portfolio construction across multiple clients [12] - ETF costs are becoming more reasonable and competitive with separately managed accounts (SMAs) that use option overlays [12][13] - The ETF wrapper provides benefits such as intraday liquidity and transparency, enhancing investor comfort [16] Adoption & Usage - Independent registered investment advisors (RIAs) are showing increased interest in actively managed ETFs that target specific outcomes [18][19] - Defined outcome buffer products are used alongside other strategies like covered calls or trend-following equities to manage risk [20] - These products help clients maintain discipline and conviction during market downturns, improving long-term investment success [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility, with prices dropping below $90,000 and into the mid-$80,000 range, raising concerns about future stability as 2025 approaches [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Market Conditions - The ongoing price decline has made it challenging for financial advisors to recommend bitcoin as a portfolio asset, leading to questions about whether the risks currently outweigh the potential rewards [2] - The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, such as the Calamos Laddered Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF (CBOL), offers a more risk-managed approach to bitcoin investment [3] Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - CBOL aims to provide de-risked bitcoin exposure through a laddered portfolio of underlying ETFs, which offer built-in protection against market drawdowns [4] - These underlying ETFs provide 100% downside protection over one-year outcome periods, which may be beneficial given the current market conditions for bitcoin [4] - While the downside protection is significant, it comes with an upside cap on potential returns, limiting overall return potential but still allowing for opportunities during bitcoin rallies [5] Group 3: Performance and Stability - The risk management focus of CBOL is currently proving effective, as the downside protection from its underlying ETFs is providing stability and principal preservation amid bitcoin's price drop [6] - CBOL serves as a potential tool for investors looking to reduce their bitcoin exposure during volatile market conditions, although the duration of the current bitcoin drawdown remains uncertain [7]

Core Insights - Large-cap tech companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI) are experiencing questionable valuations, leading to increased market volatility, as indicated by a nearly 50% rise in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) from mid-August to mid-November [1] - The Fidelity Hedged Equity ETF (FHEQ) is highlighted as a potential investment option for downside protection, utilizing an options-based strategy that incorporates quantitative analysis of various factors for stock selection [1] - The fund aims to provide downside protection while still allowing participation in upward market trends, making it a cost-effective option for investors seeking protection against market volatility [1] Investment Strategy - The options-based strategy employed by FHEQ is designed to address various market scenarios, including changing interest rates and market volatility, providing a math-based approach to investment [1] - Fidelity Investments' representatives emphasized that options-based strategies can help clients remain invested through different market cycles while offering downside protection and potential income generation [1] - The fund's management believes that such strategies are beneficial for investors looking to mitigate risks associated with systematic factors like tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1]

ETF Market & Strategy - The discussion revolves around buffer ETFs and whether the downside protection they offer is worth limiting potential gains [1] - Some ETFs are modifying their methodology to address criticisms regarding limited upside potential [2] - True Shares ETFs pioneered uncapped buffered ETFs, believing capturing upside events is as important as mitigating downside events for long-term returns [3] - True Shares ETFs use a traditional buffer with an uncapped upside capture or participation rate [4] Performance & Risk - In the 12 months following July 2020, the S&P 500 rose approximately 39%, while True Shares' buffered product returned close to 31%, outperforming peers capped in the teens [4] - Historically, the S&P 500 has returned over 17% roughly 34% of the time, with an average return of approximately 26% during those periods [5][6] - April (Liberation Day) was cited as a significant test for buffered ETFs, second only to the pandemic's early days [7] Future Discussion - The conversation will continue on ETFedge, featuring Tony Kelly from Bond Blocks discussing fixed income and buffers [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently priced at approximately $110,000, but it is still considered the best cryptocurrency to invest in with $100 due to its potential for significant future gains [2][3] Group 1: Bitcoin's Future Potential - There is a growing consensus that Bitcoin could increase in value tenfold within the next few years, with projections suggesting it could reach $1 million within five years and even $3.8 million by 2030 [3][4] - Achieving a price of $1 million from $110,000 implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56%, which is a challenging target even for top tech growth stocks [4] Group 2: Historical Performance - Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset globally in eight of the past ten years, with a remarkable gain of 157% in 2023, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which returned only 26% [5][8] - Despite its strong performance, Bitcoin has experienced significant downturns, losing 64% in 2022 and 74% in 2018, indicating the importance of holding through volatility [6][7] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors considering Bitcoin should be prepared to hold for at least four years, as the asset has historically shown periods of poor performance interspersed with substantial gains [6][7] - After a downturn in 2022, Bitcoin rebounded with gains of 157% in 2023 and 125% in 2024, demonstrating its potential for recovery and growth [7]

Core Insights - Calamos Investments has launched three new alternative bitcoin funds, the Calamos Laddered Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETFs, which are designed to provide laddered bitcoin exposure while offering varying levels of downside protection and upside potential [1][2][8] Fund Details - The Calamos Laddered Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF (CBOL) invests in four Calamos 100% Protected Bitcoin ETFs, providing 100% downside protection with a net expense ratio of 0.79% [2][3] - The Calamos Laddered Bitcoin 80 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF (CBTL) also has an expense ratio of 0.79% and invests in Calamos 80% Protected Bitcoin ETFs, limiting total loss to -20% while allowing for a higher upside cap compared to CBOL [4][5] - The Calamos Laddered Bitcoin 90 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF (CBXL) offers a middle ground, with a 79 basis points expense ratio and limiting total loss to -10%, appealing to investors seeking moderate risk [6][7] Market Context - The introduction of these funds addresses the volatility of bitcoin, which has been a barrier for many investors, by providing structured risk management options [2][8] - Advisors are increasingly comfortable offering bitcoin exposure to clients, and these new funds aim to enhance portfolio returns while managing risk [8]