Core Insights - Merck's shares have increased nearly 13% recently due to positive sentiment in the pharmaceutical sector following Pfizer's drug pricing deal with the Trump administration [1][4]. Drug Pricing and Market Impact - Pfizer will reduce prices of certain drugs to match those in comparable developed countries, supporting the Most Favored Nation pricing proposal [2]. - Pfizer will receive a three-year exemption from tariffs on pharmaceutical imports in exchange for increasing U.S. manufacturing investment, committing an additional $70 billion [3]. Merck's Strengths - Keytruda, Merck's leading drug, accounts for over 50% of its pharmaceutical sales and has driven steady revenue growth, with sales rising approximately 7% in the first half of 2025 [6][7]. - Merck is pursuing strategies to enhance Keytruda's long-term growth, including innovative combinations and a partnership with Moderna for a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine [8]. Pipeline and M&A Activity - Merck's phase III pipeline has nearly tripled since 2021, positioning the company to launch around 20 new vaccines and drugs in the coming years [10][11]. - The acquisition of Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion will strengthen Merck's cardio-pulmonary pipeline [15]. Challenges and Sales Performance - Sales of the Gardasil vaccine have declined by 48% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak demand in China [16][17]. - Other vaccines and diabetes products are also experiencing declining sales, contributing to a challenging near-term outlook for Merck [18][32]. Patent Expiration and Competitive Pressure - Keytruda is set to lose patent exclusivity in 2028, raising concerns about Merck's reliance on this drug and its ability to grow its non-oncology business [19]. - Competitive pressure is expected to increase from new dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitors, which may challenge Keytruda's market position [20][21]. Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Merck's shares have underperformed the industry and the S&P 500, with a current price/earnings ratio of 9.41, lower than the industry average of 15.96 [22][25]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 have remained stable at $8.93 per share, while 2026 estimates have slightly declined [28]. Strategic Outlook - Despite challenges, Merck's new products are showing strong launches, and the approval of Keytruda Qlex may mitigate the impact of Keytruda's loss of exclusivity [30]. - A wait-and-see approach is recommended for investors, as the company navigates its current challenges and seeks sustainable growth [32].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has significantly increased its market value over the past 2-3 years, primarily due to the success of its GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro for type II diabetes and Zepbound for obesity [1] Drug Approvals and Revenue Contributions - Lilly has received approvals for several new drugs, including Omvoh for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, Jaypirca for mantle cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, Ebglyss for atopic dermatitis, and Kisunla for early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, all contributing to revenue growth [2] - In the first half of 2025, Omvoh generated $111.9 million, while Ebglyss, Kisunla, and Jaypirca contributed $147.1 million, $70.1 million, and $215.3 million, respectively [3] Future Growth Potential - These drugs are being evaluated for additional indications and label expansions, with Ebglyss in phase III trials for perennial allergens and chronic rhinosinusitis, and Jaypirca being studied for earlier lines of therapy [4] - Lilly anticipates that Omvoh, Ebglyss, Kisunla, and Jaypirca will continue to drive revenue growth in the second half of 2025 [5] Upcoming Drug Approvals - A new drug, imlunestrant, is under review for treating ER+HER2-metastatic breast cancer in the US and EU [6] Competitive Landscape - Omvoh faces competition from AbbVie's Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq, as well as J&J's Stelara, while Kisunla competes with Eisai/Biogen's Leqembi [7][8] - Jaypirca competes with older BTK inhibitors like Imbruvica and Calquence, and Ebglyss faces competition from Dupixent [9] Stock Performance and Valuation - Lilly's stock has declined by 4.6% this year, contrasting with a 1.3% increase in the industry [10] - The combined revenue from Omvoh, Ebglyss, Kisunla, and Jaypirca exceeded $540 million in H1 2025, with EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 rising to $22.97 and $30.95, respectively [11] - Lilly's stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 25.87, higher than the industry average of 14.78, but below its 5-year mean of 34.54 [13] Consensus Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS has increased from $22.04 to $22.97 over the past 30 days, while the estimate for 2026 has risen from $30.88 to $30.95 [14]