Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.02, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.02 per share, and significantly up from $1.18 per share in the same quarter last year [1][9] - Revenues reached $17.60 billion, a 54% increase year over year, driven by strong sales of GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.01 billion [2][9] Revenue and Sales Performance - Mounjaro sales were $6.52 billion, up 109% year over year, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.48 billion [3] - Zepbound recorded sales of $3.59 billion, a 185% increase year over year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.45 billion [4] - Trulicity generated revenues of $1.05 billion, down 19% year over year, in line with estimates [6] - Jardiance sales rose 40% to $959 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $687 million [6] - Taltz brought in sales of $901.5 million, up 2% year over year, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate [7] - Verzenio generated sales of $1.47 billion, up 7% year over year, but also missed estimates [7] - Emgality revenues were $175.7 million, down 13% year over year, while Olumiant sales were $268.9 million, up 7% [8] Market Dynamics and Competition - Mounjaro and Zepbound are gaining market share from Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, despite facing strong competition [5] - The company is investing in obesity treatments and has several new molecules in clinical development, including orforglipron and retatrutide [14] Guidance and Future Outlook - Lilly raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $63.0 billion to $63.5 billion, up from a previous range of $60.0 billion to $62.0 billion, and increased EPS guidance to $23.00 to $23.70 [11][13] - The company is expanding its portfolio beyond GLP-1 drugs into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas, with recent acquisitions to enhance its pipeline [17][18] Stock Performance - Following the strong third-quarter results and guidance increase, Lilly's shares rose more than 5% in pre-market trading, with a year-to-date increase of 5.3% compared to the industry average of 3.3% [13]

Q3 2025 EARNINGS CALL ELI LILLY AND COMPANY Agenda Introduction and Key Events Dave Ricks, Chair and Chief Executive Officer Q3 2025 Financial Results Lucas Montarce, Chief Financial Officer R&D Update Dan Skovronsky, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Scientific Officer Question & Answer Session 3 2025 Q3 EARNINGS Safe Harbor Provision and Other Information This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on management's current expectations, but actual results may differ materially due to various fact ...

Core Insights - The third-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for the Medical sector is commencing, with major firms expected to release earnings results in the coming weeks, particularly in pharma/biotech and medical devices [1] - Johnson & Johnson has set a positive tone for the earnings season by exceeding estimates and raising its sales expectations for 2025 [1] - Roche has reported solid growth in the first nine months of 2025, driven by high demand for key drugs, leading to an upward revision of its earnings per share growth expectations for 2025 [2] Earnings Trends - As of October 22, 13.3% of Medical sector companies, representing 26.8% of the sector's market capitalization, have reported earnings, with 87.5% exceeding earnings estimates and the same percentage surpassing revenue expectations [3] - Year-over-year earnings increased by 7.4%, while revenues rose by 9.8%. However, third-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to decrease by 4.3%, with sales expected to rise by 8.1% compared to the previous year [3] Company Performance Expectations - Eli Lilly is expected to report strong results driven by demand for GLP-1 drugs and other oncology and immunology products, with a consensus estimate of $16.01 billion in sales and $6.02 per share in earnings [7][8] - Merck is anticipated to see growth from its cancer drug Keytruda, with estimates of $17.06 billion in sales and $2.36 per share in earnings [12] - AbbVie is projected to benefit from sales of Rinvoq, Skyrizi, and newer drugs, with estimates of $15.59 billion in sales and $1.80 per share in earnings [13][14] - Bristol Myers is expected to report revenues influenced by growth portfolio sales, with estimates of $11.83 billion in sales and $1.51 per share in earnings [15][16] - Gilead Sciences is likely to see revenue support from its HIV therapies, with estimates of $7.46 billion in sales and $2.15 per share in earnings, although impacted by changes in Medicare Part D [19][20]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly (LLY) is a market leader in the GLP-1 segment with its tirzepatide medicines Mounjaro and Zepbound, while also generating significant revenue from its oncology franchise, which accounted for over 15% of its first-half 2025 revenues, growing approximately 10% year over year [1] Oncology Sales Performance - The oncology unit's sales for Q3 2025 are estimated at $2.58 billion, reflecting over 15% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by the blockbuster breast cancer drug Verzenio, which saw increased demand and higher prices, despite currency headwinds and competitive pressures [2][9] - Sales from RET inhibitor Retevmo and lymphoma drug Jaypirca are expected to positively contribute to growth, although this may be partially offset by declining sales of older drugs like Alimta and Cyramza due to competition from immuno-oncology agents [3] New Drug Launch - Eli Lilly received FDA approval for its new breast cancer drug Inluriyo in late September, but the launch is expected to occur in the coming weeks, meaning no sales contribution from this drug in Q3 [4] Market Dynamics - Attention is shifting towards Lilly's oncology unit, which is demonstrating consistent double-digit growth, potentially reassuring investors that the company's earnings are not solely reliant on the obesity segment ahead of Q3 results on October 30 [5] Competitive Landscape - Major competitors in the oncology space include AstraZeneca, Merck, and Pfizer, with AstraZeneca's oncology sales accounting for nearly 43% of total revenues and growing 11% in the first half of 2025, driven by drugs like Tagrisso and Lynparza [6] - Merck's Keytruda accounted for over 48% of its total revenues in the first half of 2025, while Pfizer's oncology revenues grew 9% operationally, driven by drugs like Xtandi and Lorbrena [7] Valuation and Estimates - Eli Lilly's shares are currently trading at a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.99, which is higher than the industry average of 15.56 but below its five-year mean of 34.54 [10] - EPS estimates for 2025 have decreased from $23.15 to $22.86, and for 2026 from $30.82 to $30.78 over the past 30 days [12]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company's stock has increased by 9.5% in a month, driven by a recovery in the pharma sector, with major players like Pfizer and AstraZeneca entering drug pricing agreements with the Trump administration [1][2][11] Company Performance - Lilly's top line is significantly supported by the strong growth of its diabetes and obesity treatments, particularly the GLP-1 therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together account for approximately 50% of the company's total revenues [4][5][11] - The company has committed over $50 billion for domestic manufacturing expansion, positioning itself for potential agreements with the U.S. government similar to those signed by Pfizer and AstraZeneca [2][11] Product Pipeline - Lilly is actively investing in its obesity pipeline, with several new molecules in clinical development, including orforglipron and retatrutide, which are expected to enhance its market position [7][8][9] - The company has received approvals for multiple new therapies, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss, and Kisunla, contributing to revenue growth [12][13] Market Dynamics - The obesity market is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, leading to increased competition, particularly from Novo Nordisk, which poses a challenge for Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound [14][18] - U.S. President Trump's indication of potential price cuts for GLP-1 drugs raises concerns about pricing pressures on Lilly's products, although formal negotiations have not yet begun [15][16] Financial Outlook - Lilly's stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 27.72, higher than the industry average of 15.54, but below its five-year mean of 34.54 [23][29] - The company anticipates revenues between $60 billion and $62 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of over 30% [29]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has significantly increased its market value over the past 2-3 years, primarily due to the success of its GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro for type II diabetes and Zepbound for obesity [1] Drug Approvals and Revenue Contributions - Lilly has received approvals for several new drugs, including Omvoh for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, Jaypirca for mantle cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, Ebglyss for atopic dermatitis, and Kisunla for early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, all contributing to revenue growth [2] - In the first half of 2025, Omvoh generated $111.9 million, while Ebglyss, Kisunla, and Jaypirca contributed $147.1 million, $70.1 million, and $215.3 million, respectively [3] Future Growth Potential - These drugs are being evaluated for additional indications and label expansions, with Ebglyss in phase III trials for perennial allergens and chronic rhinosinusitis, and Jaypirca being studied for earlier lines of therapy [4] - Lilly anticipates that Omvoh, Ebglyss, Kisunla, and Jaypirca will continue to drive revenue growth in the second half of 2025 [5] Upcoming Drug Approvals - A new drug, imlunestrant, is under review for treating ER+HER2-metastatic breast cancer in the US and EU [6] Competitive Landscape - Omvoh faces competition from AbbVie's Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq, as well as J&J's Stelara, while Kisunla competes with Eisai/Biogen's Leqembi [7][8] - Jaypirca competes with older BTK inhibitors like Imbruvica and Calquence, and Ebglyss faces competition from Dupixent [9] Stock Performance and Valuation - Lilly's stock has declined by 4.6% this year, contrasting with a 1.3% increase in the industry [10] - The combined revenue from Omvoh, Ebglyss, Kisunla, and Jaypirca exceeded $540 million in H1 2025, with EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 rising to $22.97 and $30.95, respectively [11] - Lilly's stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 25.87, higher than the industry average of 14.78, but below its 5-year mean of 34.54 [13] Consensus Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS has increased from $22.04 to $22.97 over the past 30 days, while the estimate for 2026 has risen from $30.88 to $30.95 [14]

Financial Performance - Total revenue reached $15.6 billion, a 38% increase compared to Q2 2024[12] - Key product revenue grew by 80% to $10.4 billion[12] - Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) increased by 61% to $6.31[12] - The company raised the midpoint of its revenue guidance by $1.5 billion for the full year[10] Product Performance - Lilly's U.S. incretin analogs market share increased to 57.0% of total prescriptions, with the market growing 41% year-over-year[10] - Mounjaro U.S. sales were $3.3 billion and international sales were $1.9 billion[65] - Zepbound U.S. sales were $3.4 billion and international sales were $1.5 million[68] - Verzenio U.S. sales increased 8% and international sales increased 19%[71] - Jaypirca Q2 2025 sales reached $123 million, with TRx increasing 85% compared to Q2 2024[25] Clinical Development - Orforglipron delivered weight loss of more than 27 lbs (12.4%) in ATTAIN-1[16] - Mounjaro demonstrated cardiovascular protection in SURPASS-CVOT, showing an 8% lower rate of MACE-3 events compared to Trulicity[16, 43]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company's stock has declined 15.7% over the past year due to a first-quarter earnings miss, guidance cut, and positive developments at rival Novo Nordisk, alongside broader economic challenges [1][10]. Group 1: Company Performance - Lilly's cardiometabolic division is its strongest segment, driven by the success of GLP-1 therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together account for approximately 48% of total revenues [3][4]. - Despite slower-than-expected sales in the second half of 2024, Mounjaro and Zepbound saw a resurgence in the first quarter of 2025 due to new international market launches and improved supply [5][6]. - Lilly anticipates continued growth for Mounjaro and Zepbound through expanded international uptake and deeper market penetration in the U.S. [6][7]. Group 2: Product Pipeline and Future Growth - Lilly has secured approvals for several new therapies, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss, and Kisunla, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025 [10][11]. - The company is also advancing its pipeline in obesity, diabetes, and cancer, with several key mid and late-stage data readouts expected this year [12]. - Lilly is diversifying beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas, including recent M&A deals to enhance its pipeline [13]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominating the space [14]. - Mounjaro and Zepbound face competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products and emerging candidates from companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics [15][17]. - Other pharmaceutical companies are also entering the obesity market, which could challenge Lilly's and Novo Nordisk's market positions [18]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - Lilly expects 2025 revenues to be between $58 billion and $61 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of approximately 32% [30]. - The company's stock has increased by over 400% in the past five years, primarily due to successful drug launches and a strong pipeline [29]. - Despite a high valuation with a price/earnings ratio of 29.54 compared to the industry average of 15.04, Lilly's stock is trading below its five-year mean [23].

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly is a leader in the weight-management medicine market and is enhancing its position through strategic developments, particularly with the acquisition of Camurus' FluidCrystal technology for long-acting drug delivery [1][5][6]. Group 1: Product Development - Eli Lilly's Zepbound has shown excellent efficacy in clinical trials and real-world applications, solidifying its status as a leading weight-management therapy [2]. - The current administration method of Zepbound requires weekly subcutaneous injections, which may lead to weight regain after discontinuation [3]. - The partnership with Camurus aims to utilize FluidCrystal technology, potentially allowing for longer-lasting drug delivery, which could eliminate the need for weekly dosing [6][8]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly is actively addressing competition in the weight-management sector, including the development of orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 medicine taken once daily, which may appeal to patients more than injectable options [9]. - Other companies are also exploring oral formulations and long-acting therapies, indicating a competitive market landscape [10]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Eli Lilly reported a 45% year-over-year revenue increase in the first quarter, reaching $12.7 billion, outpacing its peers [12]. - The company has a robust pipeline with various promising products, including those for pain management, Alzheimer's disease, eczema, and cancer, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [11]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Eli Lilly is expanding its local manufacturing capacity to mitigate potential risks from tariffs, demonstrating proactive management of operational challenges [13]. - The company's strong business fundamentals, innovative capabilities, and growing dividend make it an attractive investment opportunity [14].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has reached a significant support level, making it an attractive option for investors from a technical standpoint, with the stock breaking through its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a potential short-term bullish trend [1][9] - The company's cardiometabolic business, particularly the success of its diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine Zepbound, has become a key driver of revenue [3][4] - Despite some challenges, Lilly expects substantial revenue growth in 2025, driven by Mounjaro, Zepbound, and other new drug approvals [31][32] Company Performance - LLY's stock has traded below its 50-day average since early May due to an earnings miss and guidance cut, but it has recently shown signs of recovery [2][9] - Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined sales of $6.15 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for approximately 48% of the company's total revenues [4][9] - The company expects 2025 revenues to be between $58 billion and $61 billion, reflecting a 32% year-over-year growth [31][32] Product Pipeline and Growth Drivers - Lilly has launched Mounjaro in new international markets, including China, India, and Mexico, which is expected to drive future sales growth [6][11] - The FDA approved Zepbound for a second indication, which could further enhance sales [7] - Lilly's pipeline includes several promising candidates in obesity, diabetes, and cancer, with key mid and late-stage data readouts expected this year [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is projected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, leading to increased competition, particularly from Novo Nordisk and other companies developing GLP-1-based therapies [14][15] - Mounjaro and Zepbound face competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide medicines and other emerging candidates from companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics [15][16] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Lilly's stock has risen 5.6% this year, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [22][24] - The stock currently trades at a price/earnings ratio of 31.34, higher than the industry average of 15.51, but below its 5-year mean of 34.54 [26][29] - Estimates for Lilly's 2025 earnings have declined recently, but the company still shows solid growth prospects [29][32]