Meanwhile, some newly released minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting showing officials strongly inclined to lower interest rates with the only dispute seeming to be over how many cuts were coming this year. That's two or potentially as many as three. The Fed deciding on September 17th to lower interest rates by 25 basis points.Joining us right now to talk treasuries and rates is Kamal Shri Kumar. He's the president of Shri Kumar Global Strategies. Would you be lowering rates twice, three times l ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee expresses caution regarding rapid interest rate cuts due to rising inflation and deteriorating employment conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Employment - Goolsbee highlights an uptick in inflation alongside deteriorating payroll job numbers, creating a challenging situation for the Federal Reserve as both sides of its dual mandate are under pressure [2]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in September, with indications of potential further cuts before year-end [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Goolsbee, a voting member of the FOMC, acknowledges concerns about inflation and employment but notes that data suggests a stable labor market [3]. - He believes the underlying economy can support gradual interest rate reductions over time from current levels [3].

Monetary Policy Framework - The policy decisions are guided by principles that consider deviations from goals and varying time horizons for achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [1] - Monetary policy is forward-looking, considering the time lags in its effects on the economy, thus policy actions depend on the economic outlook and balance of risks [2] - Setting a numerical goal for employment is considered unwise because the maximum level of employment is not directly measurable and changes over time for reasons unrelated to monetary policy [3] - A longer-run inflation rate of 2% is viewed as most consistent with the dual mandate goals, and commitment to this target helps keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored [3] Inflation Target - Experience has shown that 2% inflation is low enough to ensure that inflation is not a concern in household and business decision-making while also providing a central bank with some policy flexibility to provide accommodation during economic downturns [4] Review Cycle - The consensus statement retained a commitment to conduct a public review roughly every 5 years to reassess structural features of the economy and engage with the public, practitioners, and academics on the performance of the framework [4][5]

Federal Reserve Policy & Dual Mandate - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of inflation and jobs is creating a dilemma, as these goals appear to be in conflict [1] - The Fed needs to determine which aspect of its dual mandate to prioritize: weaker jobs data potentially leading to rate cuts, or persistent inflation [1][2] Interest Rate Path & Economic Factors - The market is closely watching for signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the future interest rate path [1] - Factors influencing the Fed's decision include weaker jobs reports, inflation trends (especially services inflation), and potential tariff relief [2] - It remains uncertain whether Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole will indicate a path towards rate cuts or a continuation of the "wait and see" approach [3] Committee Decision-Making - Interest rate decisions are made by the full Federal Reserve committee, not solely by the chair [3]

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The market is focused on the implications of the September 17th events and recent economic data [1] - The speaker interprets recent labor market trends as showing renewed business optimism after initial uncertainty [2][3] - There's a belief that inflation is trending closer to 3% rather than 2%, with the Open Market Committee viewing inflation as a significant risk [4] - Companies have adapted to supply chain disruptions, potentially mitigating the impact of tariffs and other shocks [6][7] - As inflation approaches the dual mandate target, policy rate decisions become more complex [9][10] - The current policy rate is considered modestly restrictive, but the speaker is seeking evidence of economic inhibition [11] - The goal is to achieve a soft landing to 2% inflation without causing economic disruption [12] Federal Reserve Communication & Framework - The Federal Reserve is reviewing its framework, incorporating lessons from the 2020 pandemic cycle, with a focus on improving transmission of its policies [14][15] - A consistent framework is deemed important for collaboration and consensus among the 19 members, while maintaining agility [17][18] - There are ongoing debates about the appropriate level of Federal Reserve communication, balancing transparency with avoiding market speculation [19][20] - The Federal Reserve aims to improve public understanding of its actions and the dual mandate [21] Federal Reserve Independence & Public Perception - The Federal Reserve maintains its independence from political influence, focusing on its economic mandate [22] - The Federal Reserve's credibility is tied to fulfilling its monetary policy responsibilities [25] - Conversations with people in the district provide real-time feedback that informs policy discussions [27] - The Federal Reserve is focused on ensuring safe and sound banks, payment systems, and valuable research [28] - The Federal Reserve differentiates between the understanding of monetary policy by business/finance professionals and the general public, emphasizing the importance of communicating the dual mandate [29][30]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforces expectations of a rate cut, focusing on the magnitude rather than the likelihood [2] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is primarily driven by concerns about employment, despite stalled disinflation [2] Dual Mandate Considerations - The Fed's weighting of its dual mandate (employment and inflation) depends on proximity to goals; with inflation closer to target, employment concerns gain importance [4][5] - Historically, the Fed tends to act more decisively when concerned about employment [4] - Some Fed speakers express reservations about inflation remaining a persistent problem [6] Risks and Uncertainties - Tariffs potentially seeping into prices could cause inflation to rise, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [8] - The Fed is willing to accept stalled disinflation to a certain extent, but dislikes it, tempering enthusiasm for rate cuts [9]

You referred to the inflation risk. The White House would also like the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. You've been in the room a few times, I'm sure, talking about this Federal Reserve.How did the president end up with a Fed chair that he disliked so much. How did that happen. Well, well, I've been watching a lot of what the president has had to say about Jay Powell lately, and he did appoint him.So that's part of the awkward aspect here. Well, first, I think the president of the United States is fu ...