Economic Indicators - The dollar index fell by -0.44% due to weaker-than-expected US economic data, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - US September retail sales rose by +0.2% month-over-month, below expectations of +0.4% [2] - The final demand PPI for September increased by +2.7% year-over-year, slightly above expectations of +2.6%, while PPI excluding food and energy rose by +2.6%, below expectations of +2.7% [3] - The Conference Board's US November consumer confidence index dropped by -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, significantly lower than the expected 93.3 [4] Market Reactions - The markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC at the next meeting on December 9-10 [4] - The euro rose by +0.45% against the dollar, supported by the weaker dollar and positive economic news from the Eurozone [5] - Eurozone new car registrations in October increased by +5.8% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise [6] - The USD/JPY fell by -0.56% as the yen strengthened amid concerns of potential Japanese government intervention in the forex market [7]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index (DXY) fell by -0.03% on Monday, influenced by dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocating for a December rate cut [1] - Waller's comments increased the probability of a Fed rate cut next month to 80% from 30% [1][3] - A stock rally on Monday reduced liquidity demand for the dollar, while weakness in the yen provided some support for the dollar [1] Group 2: Euro and Ukraine Conflict - The EUR/USD rose by +0.12% on Monday due to dollar weakness and improved prospects for peace in Ukraine, as NATO Secretary General Rutte expressed confidence in a peace deal [4] - The euro's gains were limited by an unexpected decline in the German November IFO business confidence, which fell -0.4 to 88.1, below expectations [4][5] Group 3: Japanese Yen and Economic Concerns - The USD/JPY rose by +0.26% on Monday, with the yen under pressure due to concerns about Japan's debt burden [6] - The Japanese government approved a 17.7 trillion-yen ($112 billion) stimulus package, exceeding last year's package, which contributed to the yen's weakness [6] - Trading activity in the yen was below normal due to the Japanese Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday [6] Group 4: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Markets are pricing in a 2% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting [5] - There is a 16% chance of a BOJ rate hike at the next policy meeting on December 19 [7]