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摩根大通|日本制铁/美国钢铁、力拓锂交易、中国能源之旅、印达金属报告
摩根大通· 2025-05-20 05:45
Investment Rating - The report upgrades Emerging Market (EM) equities to Overweight (OW) while maintaining a cautious stance on the energy sector [4][7]. Core Insights - Nippon Steel plans to invest an additional $14 billion in U.S. Steel, with $11 billion allocated for infrastructure through 2028, raising concerns about financial health due to increased debt levels [7][10]. - Rio Tinto has formed a joint venture with Codelco to develop a lithium project in Chile, which is expected to expand its lithium strategy without impacting earnings forecasts until 2029 [6][10]. - Hindalco's upcoming report is anticipated to focus on EBITDA per tonne, with expectations of a 6% growth in Q4 compared to Q3, driven by alumina expansion [9][10]. Summary by Sections Nippon Steel - Plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel, including $4 billion for a new steel mill, contingent on regulatory approval [7]. - Concerns about financial health as debt-to-equity ratio could rise to 1.1x if the deal is fully debt-financed [7]. Rio Tinto - Joint venture with Codelco for lithium project in Salar de Maricunga, with initial funding of $350 million and potential construction costs of $500 million [6][10]. - Current lithium output forecast to grow from 75,000 tons per annum in 2024 to 460,000 tons per annum by 2029-2033 [6][10]. Hindalco - Focus on EBITDA per tonne in the upcoming report, with a forecasted 6% growth in Q4 [9][10]. - Concerns about alumina exposure, but analysis suggests limited impact on share prices [10].