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欧盟碳市场行情简报(2025年第96期)-20250609
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:36
Report Title - The report is titled "EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 96, 2025)" [1] Release Date - The report was released on June 9, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Viewpoints - EU ETS may be extended to international aviation, and EUA decoupled from TTF and strengthened [2] Market Conditions Primary Market - The auction price was 72.3 euros/ton, a decrease of 0.33%, and the bid - to - cover ratio was 1.74 [2] Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 73.5 euros/ton, an increase of 1.04%, and the trading volume was 16,000 lots, a decrease of 1.17 [2] Strategy - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - China's Ministry of Commerce proposed to relax rare - earth exports to the EU; The EU intends to extend EU ETS to international aviation [2] Bearish Factors - Germany's wind power supply increased, and the temperature in Central and Eastern Europe was slightly higher than the seasonal average; German industry lobbying groups demanded that the EU revoke the gasoline - car ban [2][3] Data Tables EUA Auction Information | EUA Auction Volume (10,000 tons) | EUA Auction Price (euros/ton) | CBAM Certificate Price (euros/ton) | Bid - to - Cover Ratio | Auction Revenue (10,000 euros) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 160.70 | 2025 - 06 - 06, 72.30 | 71.13 | 1.74 | 11,619 | | 324.55 | 2025 - 06 - 05, 72.54 | 71.13 | 1.46 | 23,543 | [4] EUA Futures and Spot Market Information | | Futures Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Futures Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Futures Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Spot Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Spot Trading Volume (lots) | Container Shipping Carbon Cost (US dollars/TEU) | Freight Cost Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 05 | 72.74 | | 32.12 | 71.79 | | | | | 2025 - 06 - 06 | 73.50, +1.04% | 1.60, - 1.17 | 32.12, 0.00 | 72.56, +1.07% | - 1260 | 12.71, +0.76% | 1051 | [5]